AAF Point Spread: Arizona Hotshots Favored vs Salt Lake Stallions in Rematch

Arizona is a perfect 2-0 headed into the 3^rd weekend of Alliance of American Football games. But the Hotshots have Mike Singletary to thank for half of that record.

The Memphis Express skipper is solidifying a reputation as one of the worst coaches ever to stand on a sideline. In Memphis’ battle with Arizona in Week 2, Singletary – who once de-pants’d himself in front of the San Francisco 49ers – saw his QB Christian Hackenberg plunge for a 1st down near the Hotshots’ 30 yard line with a minute left in the 1st half. Any high school, college or professional coach understands that when in makeable field goal range at the end of a half, you should at least go for the 3 points.

Singletary ordered his team to kill the clock instead, in one of the most ridiculous head-coaching decisions that nobody will ever remember. Memphis would go on to lose to Arizona by 2 points.

When a team gets a gift, it better make good use of it. Thankfully the Hotshots (-5) have a lot going for them against the hosting Salt Lake Stallions, a club they defeated by 16 points on the AAF’s debut weekend, in Saturday afternoon’s quick-draw rematch at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Arizona head coach Rick Neuheisel appears to be trying hard (not a given among the AAF’s celebrity skippers) and his team is putting up points with signal-caller John Wolford handing off to tailback Tim Cook and passing to Rashad Ross. Several huge runs from scrimmage carried the Hotshots to a 2nd-half comeback at the Liberty Bowl as Singletary almost appeared to lose the game on purpose.

Hackenberg looked embarrassingly bad, unable to pass the ball more than 10 yards down the field. But we can also credit a pretty good Arizona secondary for that.

Salt in the Wound

Meanwhile, for the 0-2 Stallions it’s been a theme of frustration over the past 2 weekends. QB Josh Woodrum was punished by the Arizona defense in the 2nd half of the Week 1 bout.

Former Tennessee Titans linebacker Steven Johnson had a monster performance for the Hotshots with 7 tackles and an interception.

Dennis Erickson went with former Arkansas Razorback QB Austin Allen in Week 2, and the offense still couldn’t produce. Karter Schult had 2 sacks against the Birmingham Iron as the Stallions played well on defense. But the club’s leading receiver was De’Mornay Pierson-El who produced a stat line shorter than his name and finished with 28 yards.

The Stallions held talented Birmingham QB Luis Perez to less than 200 yards and did not allow a 50-yard rusher. Trent Richardson was money out of the backfield as the Iron prevailed in a tight scrum.

When the Location Doesn’t Matter

With barely-interested crowds and players who are all journeymen anyway, there is no reason to think home-field advantage is a big deal in the least.

6 out of 8 home teams have won in AAF games so far. All 4 home teams triumphed in Week 1. That’s a coincidence. There is only a very small sample-size of results.

The defenses and special-teams units of the clubs are comparable. Arizona clearly has the better quarterback in Wolford, however. While I’m a firm believer that simply handicapping the QBs is a lazy and reckless way to pick winners, it’s not just that Wolford is superior – it’s that he’s a legitimate downfield passer in a league where the snap-takers almost seem petrified of releasing the ball more than a few yards.

It doesn’t matter who Erickson goes with behind center on Saturday. If whoever it is plays like most of the QBs in the AAF, prepare to see lots of laterals, screens and dump-offs. ‘

If there was more money or prestige at stake, some Alliance coaches might take their hapless passers off to a nice spot by a tree (as Mark Twain would put it) and explain that if they don’t throw at least a couple of bombs in the next game they’re fined $100,000. But that’s hard to do when players are not making much money to begin with.

Picking Arizona at Salt Lake vs the Spread

I’m going with the QB who can throw it 30+ yards, or at least one who’s willing to try.

Be cautious of betting on Arizona to cover on any line of (-6) that you come across. 2-point plays are the only legal convert-after-TD option in the AAF, meaning that covering a 6-point spread is no longer a simple matter of a winning TD + XP as in the NFL.

Right now, though, the spread I’m seeing is only (-5) for Arizona…an excellent number to wager against.

I’m expecting Wolford to hit his favorite target Ross for a score or 2 this Saturday, and if Arizona races out to a big lead, Salt Lake won’t be able to pull off a comeback without a legitimate passing game. Don’t look for the Stallions to invent one any time soon.

Take Arizona to cover the point spread in Utah this weekend.