Adjusting Expectations In NFL Betting

It happens every year, where an NFL team that was thought to be a contender to win the Super Bowl just falls short of those expectations and doesn’t look like the squad everyone expected them to be. This can be difficult to deal with, as it is hard to break the habit of expecting those teams to do well. But being able to adjust your expectations when NFL betting is one of the most valuable skills there is when placing your bets.

A great example of this played out five weeks into the 2018 NFL season with the defending champions at the time, the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly was thought to be one of the favorites to win the NFC and possibly the Super Bowl heading into the season, as they kept the same team together and were getting their starting quarterback to return from injury. But the Eagles dealt with injuries and underperformed in several other ways en route to a 2-3 start straight up.

From there, the media hit the panic button with regard to the Eagles. This fits in nicely with the role of sports media and its role around betting, as their goal is to sell advertising and not provide rational advice. But discerning bettors would know that a tweak in expectations around the Eagles would be the smart move in the situation described above, as they were missing something from their game that was preventing them from playing to their potential from the previous season.

On the flip side, the Buffalo Bills were outperforming expectations by starting the 2018 season off with a 2-3 record. The Bills certainly weren’t glamorous through five games in 2018, with a struggling offense, but their defense was keeping them competitive as they scored some quality wins. This was another time when an adjustment of expectations could have been profitable.

Buffalo was, against all odds, one of the stronger teams against the spread to that point in the 2018 season. This was as much a result of them being a huge underdog in some games as it was that they were actually winning games, but that doesn’t matter when it comes to betting against the spread. Either way, the Bills fit into some NFL betting systems as a team that was strong against the spread. With perception around the Bills usually being that they are usually an easy opponent, an adjustment of expectation was required for them.

The NFL is full of surprises, otherwise it would be filled with easy wagers to win. But despite the fact that it can be difficult, there are always opportunities to place winning bets on NFL games. One of the best ways to go about doing that is to be willing to change your expectations surrounding certain teams, as overachieving teams or underachieving teams can lead to lines that are worth keeping an eye on as the season continues. Staying vigilant toward these ebbs and flows can be what separates a good NFL bettor from a great one.