Understatement of the year: Alabama has been tearing up college football this season. Even die hard Tide haters have to agree that Alabama is easily the favorite to win this year’s title.
The Crimson Tide have beat up on the likes of Arkansas State and UL-Lafayette, as expected, but are also making a mockery of SEC play. Take a look at the following breakdown of Alabama’s season. The numbers are staggering.
Alabama 2018 Season Recap
|Week||Opponent||BAMA Line||Score||ATS Result|
|1||@ LOU||-25.5||51-14 BAMA||W|
|2||vs ARK ST||-37||57-7 BAMA||W|
|3||@ OLE MISS||-23||62-7 BAMA||W|
|4||vs TEX A&M||-24.5||45-23 BAMA||L|
|5||vs ULL||-49||56-14 BAMA||L|
|6||@ ARK||-34.5||65-31 BAMA||L|
|7||vs MIZZOU||-28.5||39-10 BAMA||W|
|11||vs MISS ST||-24||24-0 BAMA||P|
* early, unofficial line
In SEC play (which is supposed to be the nation’s toughest conference) Alabama is 7-0 SU and winning by an average score of 46-13!
Alabama’s -29 average line is the largest in the nation. Alabama’s average win margin of 36 points is also the largest in the nation. The fact the Tide are 6-3-1 ATS indicates that they are outplaying the expectations of Vegas.
Alabama has not even been scored on since October 20. Their closest game this season was a 22-point win against Texas A&M.
This level of dominance is not normal, even for championship caliber teams. To find the last time a team has been this exceptional, we have to go back to the 2013 season when Jameis Winston led Florida State to an undefeated season and national title.
Comparing Alabama to Previous Champions
Take a look at the regular seasons of the previous 5 national champions and you will clearly see that Alabama is on another level in 2018.
|Year||Team||SU Record||ATS Record||Avg Line||Avg Score||Lost to|
|2014||OHIO ST||11-1||7-5||-17.6||44-23||VA TECH|
* one game had no point spread
There is so much to ogle at here. First, the Tide are attempting to become the first undefeated national champion since 2013. This will mean they must get past Auburn, the team that spoiled their perfect season a year ago.
The second thing I notice is that Alabama’s average line is much larger than many of the other teams on this list. Back in 2015, they were only 16.5-point favorites. That number has jumped nearly 2 touchdowns. Incredible!
Despite their huge lines, Alabama is 6-3-1 ATS in 2018. Vegas is posting outrageous lines and the Tide keeping beating them. The last national champion to win at least 60% ATS was the Noles in 2013 were an unprecedented 10-1-1 ATS.
Alabama’s average margin of victory in 2018 is 36 points, also the largest since the Noles won by an average of 43 points in 2013.
If you are not a numbers geek like me and instead skipped down to the bottom of this article for a two sentence summary, here goes: Alabama is unlike any other team we have seen over the past 5 years. The Tide are currently the safest bet in sports.