Alabama vs Auburn: Iron Bowl Odds and Betting Preview

FCS underdog The Citadel bothered the Alabama Crimson Tide for 2 quarters last weekend in what was supposed to be a thrash-for-cash game. But the more lasting story might be the mistake made by Alabama coach Nick Saban in the 2nd half.

Maybe concerned about the effect of a 10-10 halftime tie on his team’s College Football Playoff seeding, the veteran skipper kept his best tailback in the game too long. Harris shot through for a massive carry in the 4th quarter, but was slammed head-first into the turf, suffering a concussion.

Will Harris play in the Iron Bowl? Probably.

Auburn coach Gus Malzahn is well-versed in 11-on-11 rushing attacks such as the system utilized by The Citadel. But his offense hasn’t looked like itself in 2018, and the War Eagle defense – while still big and mean – has not been special enough to overcome scattered point-scoring. The Tigers have lost 4 out of 7 conference scrums on the season, even losing to woeful Tennessee in October.

That record has led to college football odds-makers almost disregarding last week’s Alabama vs Citadel game when setting the odds for the Iron Bowl this Saturday afternoon. Auburn is currently a (+25.5) underdog in a scrum with a falling (52) Over/Under line.

The Vegas lines make some kind of sense from a tactical perspective. The Citadel’s Flexbone attack comes with a lot of cut-blocking, which the Alabama defense is not used to dealing with. In a normal year, Auburn’s ground game is similarly aggressive and based in deception, but Malzahn has adapted his play selection around QB Jarrett Stidham’s passing arm in 2018…with limited success.

Playing out of a bunch of 1-back shotgun formations with 2, 3 and 4 wide receivers, Stidham has passed for just over 2000 yards while completing 61.6% of his throws. The Auburn running game is averaging 4.4 yards per carry, a decent number for an NFL team or an ordinary college team, but nothing like the Tigers have been hoping for.

There’s a lack of elite veteran talent at WR for the Tigers. Freshman Seth Williams is a tall target who has caught 5 touchdown passes this season, but he’s accumulated less than 500 yards receiving on the year.

There’s no question Alabama’s defense is more vulnerable to quality passing teams with big-armed quarterbacks. The Crimson Tide beat Texas A&M soundly at home, but gave up scoring drives repeatedly as the Aggies passed for 263 yards and scored 23 points. Against Missouri on October 13th, the Alabama defense allowed 10 1st-quarter points before settling down and putting pressure on talented QB Drew Lock. Still, the threat of Mizzou’s passing game caused ‘Bama coaches to dial back what had been a wide-open aerial circus for most of Weeks 1 through 6.

Auburn has been getting better. The Tigers had no trouble against Liberty last weekend in a 53-0 result, and played impressively on defense against UGA quarterback Jake Fromm on November 10th while losing 27-10 to the Top 10-ranked Bulldogs. Junior DB Jamel Dean grabbed an interception, and the team’s terrific senior linebacker Deshaun Davis recorded a sack and 2 tackles for-loss.

However, I’m thinking the key to an ATS bet on the Iron Bowl will be how Saban and his top-ranked Tide approach the battle.

By playing Harris in the 4th quarter on Saturday, the Alabama HC showed that he’s looking at the national title picture every week. The skipper would punch any journalist who suggested it, and reprimand any player for looking ahead. But there was simply no reason to keep his 1st string backfield in the game against The Citadel except to run up an impressive score and hope that the stuffed-shirts of the CFP committee would overlook the dreary 1st half.

Now, Saban has a very different problem – how to handle a fierce rival while still keeping eyes on the big prize. There’s little chance that Harris will get a ton of carries this Saturday, not with a concussion protocol so fresh in his recent past. Instead, I’m thinking the Crimson Tide may open things up.

Yes, Auburn has seemed more vulnerable to the run than to the pass. Georgia’s D’Andre Swift ran through the Tiger defense like “crap through a tin horn,” to borrow one of Saban’s favorite sayings. But Tagovailoa has shown that he can sling the rock against anybody, and a “scientific” play selection that involves lots of short passes and run-after-catch opportunities would serve the injury-addled Tide backfield in better stead than a power-football game plan.

If the visiting Tigers are kept off-balance, when Alabama does run the ball it won’t matter who is getting the touches.

Alabama should pass for 350+ yards and win comfortably. But the lack of a dominant ground game could still give Auburn the opportunity to cover. Neither team will quit at any time, not in a rivalry as emotional as Army vs Navy or Michigan vs Ohio State.

The most-likely outcome will involve Alabama taking a 14-0 or 21-3 lead midway through the 2^nd quarter. At that point, Auburn will start to throw the ball with some effectiveness and maybe control the ball longer than expected.

The Tigers still have enough 11 x 11 juice in the playbook to fare OK on 1st down and put Stidham in manageable situations. The experienced Auburn QB can make plays on 2nd down and 7 and on 3rd and 3. He won’t be able to find enough open receivers downfield to answer when Tagovailoa’s receivers reach the end zone, but we can expect the visitors to keep fighting and put up points in the 2nd half.

That puts value on Auburn to cover…as long as the spread remains above 3 touchdowns and a field goal. A live bet on Auburn-to-cover after Alabama jumps out to a lead makes sense too.

Meanwhile, I’m giving the point total a 60% chance to reach and surpass the Over (52).