An Early Look at the MLB Playoff Picture

An Early Look at the MLB Playoff Picture

The 2021 MLB season is already 50% completed. Can we finally start talking playoffs now? Actually, I’m very impatient and wrote my first MLB playoff picture piece way back on May 23 but this one is far more appropriate being that it’s already July.

The 162-game regular season grind is baseball’s calling card but the postseason is what sports are all about. If you aren’t thinking about postseason implications while advancing through the regular season, you aren’t getting the full experience.

In a confusing twist, the MLB is ditching the one-year-experiment of the 16-team postseason in favor of the traditional 10-team bracket in use from 2012-2019. Experts around the league believe we will adopt the 16-team bracket permanently in the 2022 season under the new CBA.

So for one final season (most likely), the MLB playoffs will be the toughest bracket to crack in any of the 4 major pro sports. It normally takes 87 or 88 wins to secure a spot with just 5 teams in each league making the postseason – and many more than that to win a division and avoid the one-game Wild Card play in.

To give my analysis quantitative data, I cite FiveThirtyEight often. Their MLB Prediction tools are fun to play around with and extremely insightful. FiveThirtyEight has a simulation feature which runs the end of the season 100,000 times and gives the percentages that a given team makes the playoffs, wins their division, or wins the World Series.

Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason baseball – including current record, remaining strength of schedule, health of star players, and strength of division. All 30 MLB teams (even the Diamondbacks) are still very much mathematically alive with well over 100 games to go and will be getting a break down. Let’s get started!

American League

Here is the AL Bracket if the season ended today

American League Division and Wild Card Races

AL East

The Boston Red Sox have helped themselves more than any other American League team over the past 5 weeks. On May 23, Boston held a 38% chance of reaching the postseason. Boston now holds a 67% chance to reach the 2021 playoffs.

A 20-13 record over their past 33 games has helped propel Boston 2 games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.

20-13 is tied for the 5th-best record over this span. The Red Sox are receiving (-113) odds on the moneyline during the stretch giving them just under $700 of moneyline profit which is the 4th-most of any team over the last 5 weeks.

Of course Boston’s increase in postseason equity cannot come without another team’s decrease. After all, playoff equity is a zero-sum game.

The New York Yankees – Boston’s biggest rival – are the largest losers of postseason equity over the past 5 weeks. The New York Yankees were 77% favorites to reach the postseason the last time I wrote about them … they are now just 37%.

Fans in the Bronx have been waiting for the Yankees to “turn it around“ all season but New York has yet to do that. The Yankees are 14-19 since May 23 but are still receiving a very short (-143) moneyline in their games. This means Yankees moneyline bettors have lost over $1300 in the past 5 weeks – the 2nd-worst mark of any team in the MLB.

AL Central

Despite actually losing a little bit of ground in the standings, the Chicago White Sox have increased their playoff odds in the AL Central. Posting a 20-13 record since May 23 has improved the White Sox playoff chances from 74% to 83%.

This comes at the expense of the Indians playoff equity which has decreased from 41% down to 31%. Cleveland is playing decent baseball – they are 18-14 in the last 32 games – but they are going to be hard-pressed to keep pace with the White Sox who are clearly more talented.

The poor Minnesota Twins are now realizing just how deep the hole that they dug themselves is. The Twins have played winning baseball since May 23 and are still in 4th place in the division and nowhere near the playoff conversation.

Minnesota is 17-15 in their last 32 but have watched their postseason equity decrease from 9% down to 3%. To make matters worse, Minnesota has been a (-117) moneyline favorite despite the poor record and 17-15 is not good enough to profit. Minnesota moneyline bettors have lost $47 over the past 5 weeks.

In April, the Twins were (-138) moneyline favorites but a 9-15 April record put them in a deep hole in the standings and their bettors in dire financial straits. A 9-15 record equates to -$1105 in deficits in April alone.

AL West

Out in the AL West the Houston Astros have gained supremacy over the Oakland Athletics and are closing in on Boston for the top spot in the American League.

One of the hottest teams in June, the Houston Astros are 22-12 since May 23 – the 3rd-best record over that span. 538 projections give Houston the best odds of earning the one seed in the American League.

With stellar play over the last five weeks, Houston has increased their playoff equity from 82% of 93%. The Oakland A’s have increased their playoff equity from 50% to 56%. This increase in equity is because the Yankees and Indians look like they are going to struggle to challenge Oakland for a Wild Card spot.

The Los Angeles Angels are a fun team to talk about because of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout but they are not a good baseball team. The Angels playoff equity has decreased from 7% to just 4% despite playing to a 19-14 record over the past 5 weeks.

The AL Postseason Bracket at End of Season per 538 Projections

538 simulations to the end of the season reveal that the Houston Astros are the most likely team to take home the 1 seed in the American League.

The Astros have gained favor in the eyes of Vegas, shooting up the leaderboard and now receiving the 2nd-shortest 2021 World Series odds (+600) on Bovada Sportsbook.

As the American League 1 seed, Houston awaits the winner of the Oakland-Boston one-game playoff held at Fenway Park. On the other side of the bracket is the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the Chicago White Sox.

The New York Yankees were the projected 2 seed in my May 23rd edition of MLB playoff picture but have continued stinking far past the date we all assumed they would get it together. Both the Red Sox and Rays have jumped the Yankees both in the current standings and in the season-long projections.

The Yankees were given the best World Series futures odds of any American League on May 23rd but are now in a 3-team tie for 3rd in the league with Tampa and Boston.

Of the division leaders in the American League, the White Sox are given the best odds to retain their lead. Chicago has a 92% chance of winning the AL Central while Houston has an 83% chance to hold onto the West. The Red Sox are in the tightest race in the league and given just a 46% chance to win the division.

The Cleveland Indians are in the hunt right now for a Wild Card spot – just 2 games back of Oakland for the 5 seed in the American League, but 538 sees the Indians falling short.

The Blue Jays are also in the mix – 2 games behind Cleveland – but they have an even lower chance of reaching the postseason.

American League Playoff and World Series Equities

AL East

Boston Red Sox 49-31

538 Playoff%: 67%. The Red Sox had just a 38% chance of reaching the postseason on May 23rd but a 20-13 record since that date has propelled them up the standings.

538 Division Title%: 31%

538 Championship%: 4%

Tampa Bay Rays 47-33

538 Playoff%: 79%. The Rays’ playoff equity has increased by 10% since May 23rd mostly because of the poor play by the New York Yankees.

538 Division Title%: 46%

538 Championship%: 8%. Despite being behind Boston in the standings today, the Rays are given better odds of winning the 2021 World Series than the Sox. On Bovada, each team is a (+1400) favorite.

Toronto Blue Jays 41-36

538 Playoff%: 44%

538 Division Title%: 13%

538 Championship%: 3%

New York Yankees 41-38

538 Playoff%: 37%

538 Division Title%: 10%

538 Championship%: 4%. The Yankees were the 2nd-most likely team to win the World Series on May 23rd but have lost 7% of their World Series equity since that date.

Baltimore Orioles 26-54

538 Playoff%: <1%

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

AL Central

Chicago White Sox 46-32

538 Playoff%: 83%

538 Division Title%: 78%. The White Sox own the 2nd-best division championship odds in the entire MLB.

538 Championship%: 6%

Cleveland Indians 42-33

538 Playoff%: 31%

538 Division Title%: 20%

538 Championship%: 1%

Detroit Tigers 34-45

538 Playoff%: <1%

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

Minnesota Twins 33-44

538 Playoff%: 3%

538 Division Title%: 2%

538 Championship%: <1%

Kansas City Royals 33-45

538 Playoff%: <1%

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

AL West

Houston Astros 48-32

538 Playoff%: 93%

538 Division Title%: 80%. The Houston Astros are the most likely team to win a division title in the MLB.

538 Championship%: 15%. Houston has the best World Series odds in the American League.

Oakland Athletics 47-34

538 Playoff%: 56%

538 Division Title%: 18%

538 Championship%: 3%

Seattle Mariners 41-39

538 Playoff%: 4%

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

Los Angeles Angels 38-41

538 Playoff%: 4%

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

Texas Rangers 31-48

538 Playoff%: <1%

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

National League

Here is the NL Postseason Bracket if the Season Ended Today

National League Division and Wild Card Races

NL East

The 4-team race in the National League East is one of the more fun stories in baseball right now. The New York Mets have led this division wire to wire but two different things are preventing me from feeling comfortable that they will hold on the rest of the way. The first of these things is that 3 other teams are within striking distance and the other is that they are the Mets. Enough said.

No one is running away with this race. The Mets and Nationals have each played slightly better than .500 baseball over the past 5 weeks while the Phillies and Braves have played slightly under .500. The Mets 3-game lead over Washington gives them a 57% chance to win the division although it’s still anyone’s race.

	Record	Last 5 Wks	Playoff%	Division%
Mets	42-36	19-16	61	51
Nationals	40-40	19-15	23	17
Braves	40-42	15-17	15	19
Phillies	39-41	15-16	12	11

NL Central

The NL Central went from being uninteresting to extremely interesting and then back to uninteresting again.

The Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, and Reds were all mixing it up and taking turns making fun of the Pirates until a big surge from the Milwaukee Brewers put them well ahead.

Instead of slowing down and making the race interesting, the Brewers kept winning and winning and winning while everyone else remained pretty mediocre.

The result is the largest division lead in baseball – Milwaukee’s 5-game lead over the Chicago Cubs. The previous division leaders – the St. Louis Cardinals – have slipped so hard, falling all the way to fourth place in a rather mediocre division.

The Brewers and Cardinals have been on completely opposite trajectories over the last five weeks. Check out this chart.

	Record	ML Profit	Change Playoff%	Change WS%
Brewers	25-10	$1,241	+40%	+3%
Cardinals	13-22	-$1,075	-46%	-3%

NL West

The most top-heavy division in baseball is getting pretty juicy.

No one believed in the San Francisco Giants five weeks ago. Everyone thought they were a mediocre team off to a fluky good start who would soon cool down and get caught by both the Dodgers and Padres. Not so.

The San Francisco Giants have increased their playoff equity from 40% on May 23 to 79% today by going 22-11 over their last 33 games – the 2nd-best record over the span.

Despite leading the division, the Giants were worse than a coin flip to make the playoffs but are now nearly a lock. Although 538 projects the Giants should make the playoffs, they are still not receiving much faith to go all the way. 538 gives the Giants less than a 4% chance of winning the World Series while the Bovada 2021 World Series futures odds for San Francisco are (+1800).

The Los Angeles Dodgers have continued playing excellent baseball – winning 21 of their 34 games since May 23 and increasing their playoff equity from 97% to 98%.

Despite being in second place at the moment, the Dodgers are overwhelming favorites to win the NL West, given a 67% chance to do so by 538 projections. The Giants are actually the 3rd-most likely team to win the West with 13% equity while the Padres have a 20% chance.

The Giants have averaged a (-116) moneyline over the past 5 weeks and their 22-11 record has given them over $1200 of profit – the 2nd-most only to the Brewers.

The San Diego Padres have played winning baseball over the last 5 weeks and have found their playoff equity decreased slightly from 89% to 88%. This is because the San Francisco Giants have continued playing excellent baseball while the Brewers and Cubs are giving San Diego a run for their money in the Wild Card department.

Having the Dodgers and Padres play in the Wild Card game with the winner facing San Francisco would be an incredibly entertaining bracket. The Dodgers and Padres have quickly become baseball’s hottest young rivals – drawing more viewership than a Yankees-Red Sox match up. Forcing two of the best teams in the National League from the same division to play each other in a win-or-go-home playoff would be must-see TV.

NL Postseason Bracket at end of Season per 538 Projections

This bracket is a little more normal looking but still contains some surprises. The most notable change is that the Dodgers have assumed the 1 seed in the National League like we thought they would at the beginning of the season.

National League Playoff and World Series Equities

NL East

New York Mets 41-34

538 Playoff%: 61%

538 Division Title%: 57%

538 Championship%: 6%

Washington Nationals 39-38

538 Playoff%: 23%

538 Division Title%: 19%

538 Championship%: 2%

Philadelphia Phillies 37-40

538 Playoff%: 12%

538 Division Title%: 10%

538 Championship%: <1%

Atlanta Braves 37-41

538 Playoff%: 15%

538 Division Title%: 13%

538 Championship%: 1%

Miami Marlins 33-45

538 Playoff%: <1%

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers 47-33

538 Playoff%: 72%. The Brewers have gained 40% in playoff equity since May 23rd thanks to an MLB-best 25-10 record.

538 Division Title%: 65%

538 Championship%: 5%

Chicago Cubs 42-38

538 Playoff%: 33%

538 Division Title%: 23%

538 Championship%: 2%

Cincinnati Reds 39-39

538 Playoff%: 13%

538 Division Title%: 9%

538 Championship%: <1%

St Louis Cardinals 39-41

538 Playoff%: 5%. The Cardinals were division leaders less than 2 months ago.

538 Division Title%: 3%

538 Championship%: <1%

Pittsburgh Pirates 29-49

538 Playoff%: <1%

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

NL West

San Francisco Giants 50-29

538 Playoff%: 79%

538 Division Title%: 13%

538 Championship%: 3%

Los Angeles Dodgers 49-31

538 Playoff%: 98%

538 Division Title%: 67%

538 Championship%: 25%

San Diego Padres 48-33

538 Playoff%: 88%

538 Division Title%: 20%

538 Championship%: 9%

Colorado Rockies 33-47

538 Playoff%: <1%

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

Arizona Diamondbacks 22-59

538 Playoff%: <1%. Can you believe the DBacks actually had 2% playoff equity on May 23rd?

538 Division Title%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%