It’s June! Over one-third of the 2021 MLB season is behind us. The season would be winding down if this was the shortened 2020 COVID campaign but it’s not! We have a full summer of hardball ahead, baby!
Certain things are safe to assume at the beginning of June, but most of what lies ahead is still murky in our crystal balls. For example, we can list several teams already that are locks for the playoffs: White Sox, Dodgers, Rays.
We can also list a few teams that are certainly going to be sitting at home in October: Pirates, Tigers, Orioles.
What about player achievements? Is June 1st too early to think about batting titles, Triple Crown candidates, or strikeout leaders? Can we expect the leaders in AVG, HR, ERA, WHIP, etc. on June 1 to lead those categories at the end of the year?
Before I draw any conclusions about the final 4 months of the season, I first need to see how predictive results from April and May have been.
For example, Nick Castellanos is currently leading the majors in batting average at .361. Can we crown him the batting champ already or should we hold off and see how the rest of the season plays out?
To answer this, I’m going to dive back through the past 10 seasons of data to find how often the leaders in the fantasy baseball categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB, ERA, WHIP, K, W, S) hold their June 1st leads.
I chose to look at 10 seasons because I feel that gives us a large enough sample size to where the data means something but isn’t mixing results from different eras of baseball.
The only wonky thing about this study is what I chose to do to account for the shortened 2020 season. Since June 1st marks roughly the one-third point of a normal season, I decided to use August 16, 2020 as the equivalent of “June 1st” because that date marked the one-third point of COVID ball.
Let’s see what the numbers say!
April and May Batting Average Leaders
I am looking at batting average first not only because it is almost always the first hitting stat listed when talking numbers but also because there can be extreme fluctuation week-to-week, day-to-day, even at-bat-to-at-bat.
Through 2 months of the baseball season, most full-time hitters are hovering around 200 at-bats. Batting average is a simple ratio – hits divided by at-bats. The fewer at-bats you have, the more your average fluctuates with each result.
With only 200 at-bats, your average is going to move a couple of points each time you step into the box. This means you can knock 6 or 8 points off your average with a bad game in early June or boost it way up with a few hits.
Hitters can drop from .340 to .310 with one bad week in early June and watch themselves plummet down the slippery slope of the batting average leaderboard.
Batting average is the most variable stat in baseball. It can change so much and the hitter does not have as much control as you’d think. Line drives and hard contact don’t guarantee hits. Bloopers fall in often. It is extremely difficult to maintain a high batting average over an entire season, even as a star hitter.
Here are the June 1 leaders and end of season leaders in batting average each year since 2011.
| Year | June 1 | End of Season |
| 2021 | N. Castellanos (.361) | — |
| 2020* | C. Blackmon (.446) | D. LeMahieu (.364) |
| 2019 | C. Bellinger (.376) | T. Anderson (.335) |
| 2018 | M. Betts (.359) | M. Betts (.346) |
| 2017 | R. Zimmerman (.368) | J. Altuve (.346) |
| 2016 | D. Murphy (.397) | D. LeMahieu (.348) |
| 2015 | D. Gordon (.377) | Mi. Cabrera (.338) |
| 2014 | T. Tulowitzki (.352) | J. Altuve (.341) |
| 2013 | Mi. Cabrera (.372) | Mi. Cabrera (.348) |
| 2012 | P. Konerko (.381) | B. Posey (.336) |
| 2011 | M. Joyce (.370) | Mi. Cabrera (.344) |
As you can see, only twice in the past 10 years did the Major League batting leader on June 1 don the crown in September.
As I expected, the league-high batting average on June 1 was higher than the final league-high average every single time. It is much easier to hit for a high average over a smaller sample size.
Will Nick Castellanos win the batting title? Probably not. One thing is for sure, if Castellanos does win the batting title in 2021 it will be with a lower average than .361. The last batting leader to hit that high over a full season was Joe Mauer (.365) back in 2009.
April and May Home Run Leaders
Here’s what we got for homeruns. Note how the homeruns seem to be trending slightly upward. I wonder if 2021’s leader will make it to 53 like Pete Alonso did in 2019. With so much controversy surrounding the nerfed baseball this year, I doubt it.
| Year | June 1 | End of Season |
| 2021 | 2 Tied (17) | — |
| 2020* | 3 Tied (9) | L. Voit (22) |
| 2019 | C. Yelich (22) | P. Alonso (53) |
| 2018 | 4 tied (18) | K. Davis (48) |
| 2017 | A. Judge (17) | G. Stanton (59) |
| 2016 | 2 tied (16) | M. Trumbo (47) |
| 2015 | 2 tied (18) | C. Davis (47) |
| 2014 | N. Cruz (20) | N. Cruz (40) |
| 2013 | C. Davis (19) | C. Davis (53) |
| 2012 | J. Hamilton (21) | Mi. Cabrera (44) |
| 2011 | J. Bautista (20) | J. Bautista (43) |
The two players tied with 17 long balls this season are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ronald Acuna of the Blue Jays and Braves respectively.
How often did the player with the most dingers by June 1 remain on top? We first need to sort out the ties, but none of the players involved in those ties on June 1 went on to win so they don’t really matter.
3 players maintained their home run leads from June 1st to the end of the season.
I would’ve expected more. Here is why: you cannot luck your way into homeruns like you can fake a high batting average. Also, it is exponentially harder to close a gap in the homerun race because the leader cannot lose points like in batting average.
Why? Well for one, your home run total cannot decrease like your batting average. When protecting a batting average lead, not only must you hope the guy below you doesn’t get hot, but you have to keep yourself hot or you will fall right down the board.
Home run leads are easier to maintain and there are fewer hitters around the league who can realistically compete for a homerun crown. That’s good news for Little Vlad and Acuna. That being said, Luke Voit came out of nowhere to steal the crown last season as did Khris Davis in 2018 or Mark Trumbo in 2016.
With the deadened balls, I am going to give the benefit of the doubt to Acuna because it will be more difficult to catch him. I like Acuna’s homerun-hitting ability over Vlad’s and will pick Ronald Acuna to win the Major League homerun title in 2021.
April and May RBI Leaders
Long gone are the days in which players drive in upwards of 200 runs. You have to go all the way back to 1962 to find the last time a player who didn’t cheat drove in 150.
White Sox slugger Jose Abreu is fresh off an MVP campaign in the shortened season and is now leading baseball in RBIs through the first two months of 2021. The overall stat line of .258/11/46 for Abreu this year cannot compare with his elite line of .317/19/60 from last year but the RBIs are there regardless. This dude is a born producer.
| Year | June 1 | End of Season |
| 2021 | J. Abreu (46) | — |
| 2020* | 2 Tied (22) | J. Abreu (60) |
| 2019 | J. Bell (53) | A. Rendon (126) |
| 2018 | J. Martinez (47) | J. Martinez (130) |
| 2017 | C. Blackmon (46) | G. Stanton (132) |
| 2016 | D. Ortiz (47) | N. Arenado (133) |
| 2015 | G. Stanton (44) | N. Arenado (130) |
| 2014 | N. Cruz (52) | A. Gonzalez (116) |
| 2013 | Mi. Cabrera (61) | C. Davis (138) |
| 2012 | J. Hamilton (57) | Mi. Cabrera (139) |
| 2011 | A. Gonzalez (46) | M. Kemp (126) |
So how many times did the June 1st RBI leader hold on till the bitter end? Just once in the past 10 years – JD Martinez in 2018.
In my “By the Numbers” piece I linked to above, I predicted that Abreu’s high levels of production will not continue. He is striking out more each year and walking less than he used to. Given this and the fact that RBIs are gathered in bunches – I see Abreu being caught by season’s end.
April and May Runs Leaders
On to what some would label baseball’s most important stat – runs. If you can’t score you can’t win. Run-scorers may not receive the most love from the media and fans, but it sure is fun to watch a good hitter work his way on and then maneuver his way around the bases.
| Year | June 1 | End of Season |
| 2021 | B. Bichette (44) | — |
| 2020* | 3 Tied (20) | F. Freeman (51) |
| 2019 | T. Story (53) | M. Betts (135) |
| 2018 | M. Betts (52) | 2 tied (129) |
| 2017 | P. Goldschmidt (46) | C. Blackmon (137) |
| 2016 | M. Betts (49) | M. Trout (123) |
| 2015 | J. Donaldson (43) | J. Donaldson (122) |
| 2014 | J. Donaldson (48) | M. Trout (115) |
| 2013 | J. Votto (45) | M. Carpenter (126) |
| 2012 | C. Gonzalez (44) | M. Trout (129) |
| 2011 | J. Bautista (45) | C. Granderson (136) |
If you gave me 100 guesses as to who was currently leading the majors in runs, I would not have thought to guess Bo Bichette.
Bichette leading baseball with just 44 runs on June 1st is a testament to the lack of offense in Major League baseball this year.
The league is accused of “nerfing” the baseballs this season in an effort to correct the over-prevalence of homeruns. They definitely accomplished their goal as multi-homer games are becoming extinct and no-hitters commonplace.
So how often did the top run-scoring dawgs remain the top dawgs? Over the past 10 seasons, the runs leader on June 1 ended up on top just twice – Mookie Betts in 2018 and Josh Donaldson in 2015.
Runs are very similar to RBIs with one added caveat. Runs are less about the hitter and more about his team.
Runs are the ultimate free-for-all. You don’t even need to be a good hitter to score. It helps. It helps a lot, actually, but a great middle-of-the-order can inflate a tablesetter’s run figure right up onto the top of the leaderboard.
Competing for a runs title is very difficult because so many hitters are capable of it. It is generally understood that runs are the stat a hitter has the least control over. For this reason, no one ever makes a big deal about who is leading the league in runs.
We know, though. It’s Bo Bichette … for now.
April and May Steals Leaders
Steals. Quite possibly my favorite aspect of the game.
A stolen base can get in the pitcher’s head, get in the catcher’s head, demoralize an entire team, and improve your team’s scoring chances all in less than 4 seconds.
There is always a lot of turnover in the steals department because you need to be both very fast and very healthy to steal a huge number of bags in a season. Unfortunately, most players do not possess both of these traits for long.
A couple of young speedsters will set the league on fire for a couple of years and then drop off the face of the earth … cough … Billy Hamilton and Jonathan Villar.
The new faces of the stolen base happen to be the double play combination for the Royals – Adalberto Mondesi and Whit Merrifield. Merrifield led the league in 2018 with 45 swipes and Mondesi won the title in the shortened 2020 season with 24.
| Year | June 1 | End of Season |
| 2021 | W. Merrifield (16) | — |
| 2020* | 2 Tied (6) | A. Mondesi (24) |
| 2019 | A. Mondesi (21) | M. Smith (46) |
| 2018 | E. Inciarte (18) | W. Merrifield (45) |
| 2017 | B. Hamilton (28) | D. Gordon (60) |
| 2016 | J. Villar (19) | J. Villar (62) |
| 2015 | B. Hamilton (21) | D. Gordon (58) |
| 2014 | D. Gordon (34) | D. Gordon (64) |
| 2013 | J. Ellsbury (21) | J. Ellsbury (52) |
| 2012 | E. Bonafacio (20) | M. Trout (49) |
| 2011 | M. Bourn (20) | M. Bourn (61) |
The stolen base leader on June 1 held onto the crown in 4 of the past 10 seasons. Steals is a category where you will not find much competition at the top. Normally there are only 3 or 4 guys with a realistic chance of winning the steals crown each year.
Because speed does not go in slumps, many stolen base races are determined by who stayed healthiest throughout the year. This is Merrifield’s race to win if his legs can hold up.
April and May ERA Leaders
Let’s not forget about those poor pitchers.
2-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom is having an excellent season – posting the lowest qualifying ERA on June 1st since Ubaldo Jiminez sported an ERA of 0.78 at this point in 2010.
| Year | June 1 | End of Season |
| 2021 | J. deGrom (0.71) | — |
| 2020* | L. Lynn (1.11) | S. Bieber (1.63) |
| 2019 | H. Ryu (1.48) | H. Ryu (2.32) |
| 2018 | J. Verlander (1.11) | J. deGrom (1.70) |
| 2017 | E. Santana (1.75) | C. Kluber (2.25) |
| 2016 | C. Kershaw (1.56) | K. Hendricks (2.13) |
| 2015 | 2 tied (1.48) | Z. Greinke (1.66) |
| 2014 | J. Samardzija (1.68) | C. Kershaw (1.77) |
| 2013 | P. Corbin (1.71) | C. Kershaw (1.83) |
| 2012 | B. Beachy (1.77) | C. Kershaw (2.53) |
| 2011 | J. Jurrjens (1.51) | C. Kershaw (2.28) |
Just like with batting average, the end-of-year ERA leader is always worse than the June 1 leader was. That’s the power of regression.
If deGrom manages to keep this pace, he will finish with the lowest ERA since Bob Gibson in the Year of the Pitcher – 1968.
A whopping 2 players were able to hold their June 1st ERA leads over the past 10 years. One of the players tied in 2015 was Zack Greinke, who ended up winning with an ERA not too much higher.
Just like batting average, ERA is extremely volatile and “fluky”. You will have lots of competition toward the top. The most deserving pitcher may not always win the ERA crown. This is why xFIP exists.
April and May WHIP Leaders
Walks and hits per innings pitched – WHIP. If you do not allow baserunners as a pitcher, the offense is going to have a difficult time putting runs on the board.
WHIP and ERA go hand-in-hand. If a pitcher has a high WHIP but a low ERA, he is getting lucky. It means he is working himself out of a lot of jams.
Jacob deGrom – go figure – is also leading all pitchers in WHIP through the first 2 months of the season.
| Year | June 1 | End of Season |
| 2021 | J. deGrom (0.57) | — |
| 2020* | D. Bundy (0.63) | K. Maeda (0.75) |
| 2019 | J. Verlander (0.74) | J. Verlander (0.80) |
| 2018 | J. Verlander (0.71) | J. Verlander (0.90) |
| 2017 | E. Santana (0.84) | C. Kluber (0.87) |
| 2016 | C. Kershaw (0.65) | M. Scherzer (0.97) |
| 2015 | Z. Greinke (0.87) | Z. Greinke (0.84) |
| 2014 | J. Cueto (0.76) | C. Kershaw (0.86) |
| 2013 | M. Harvey (0.82) | C. Kershaw (0.92) |
| 2012 | J. Verlander (0.89) | Jer. Weaver (1.02) |
| 2011 | J. Tomlin (0.90) | J. Verlander (0.92) |
3 of the previous 10 June 1st WHIP leaders were able to maintain their positions atop the league.
You have a much lower chance of getting lucky with WHIP than you do with ERA. The WHIP crown is a better achievement than the ERA crown in my opinion, although it gets talked about less by the media.
April and May Strikeout Leaders
Strikeouts are to pitchers what home runs are to hitters – the ultimate goal of each at-bat.
| Year | June 1 | End of Season |
| 2021 | S. Bieber (117) | — |
| 2020* | S. Bieber (54) | S. Bieber (122) |
| 2019 | G. Cole (116) | G. Cole (326) |
| 2018 | M. Scherzer (120) | M. Scherzer (300) |
| 2017 | C. Sale (110) | C. Sale (308) |
| 2016 | C. Kershaw (105) | M. Scherzer (284) |
| 2015 | C. Kluber (96) | C. Kershaw (301) |
| 2014 | C. Kluber (95) | D. Price (271) |
| 2013 | Y. Darvish (105) | Y. Darvish (277) |
| 2012 | J. Verlander (82) | J. Verlander (239) |
| 2011 | R. Halladay (91) | J. Verlander (250) |
6 times in the past 10 years did the June 1st K leader hold on till the end of September – making strikeouts the most predictive stat of the 10 we discuss today.
Very few pitchers are capable of legitimately competing for the strikeout crown. Deficits are also difficult to overcome because it is tough to gain ground. If a starting pitcher has a normal start, he might strike out 7 or 8 batters. If you have an awesome start you might K 12 or 13. You only gain a few.
I like Shane Bieber’s chances of repeating for the Strikeout Crown.
April and May Wins Leaders
I dislike discussing the records of pitchers. I do not feel that a pitcher’s record is a good indication of how well he is pitching. Just like runs with hitters, wins and losses depend so much on your teammates. Just look at Jacob deGrom in 2018.
Regardless of what I think, wins are still praised by the media. Wins gifted Rick Porcello the Cy Young in 2016. Wins also still count for points in fantasy baseball, so let’s see what’s up.
| Year | June 1 | End of Season |
| 2021 | J. Flaherty (8) | — |
| 2020* | 4 Tied (4) | 2 Tied (8) |
| 2019 | D. German (9) | J. Verlander (21) |
| 2018 | M. Scherzer (9) | B. Snell (21) |
| 2017 | D. Keuchel (8) | 4 tied (18) |
| 2016 | 3 tied (9) | R. Porcello (22) |
| 2015 | 2 tied (8) | J. Arrieta (22) |
| 2014 | M. Buehrle (9) | C. Kershaw (21) |
| 2013 | 4 tied (8) | M. Scherzer (21) |
| 2012 | 2 tied (8) | G. Gonzalez (21) |
| 2011 | 7 tied (7) | J. Verlander (24) |
Not once over the past 10 seasons was the pitcher with the most wins on June 1st and the pitcher with the most wins at the end of the season the same person.
Sorry Jack Flaherty. You are off to a great start but history almost guarantees that you will not win the most games in the majors this year.
April and May Saves Leaders
And finally, the thorn in the side of fantasy owners and MLB managers alike – saves.
Saves are right there with wins as the most difficult fantasy stat to predict. In order for a save to occur, your team must create a save opportunity.
You can be a perfect pitcher and still wind up with low saves numbers simply because your team is either too good (they always win by a lot) or too bad to create ample save opportunities.
Because saves have less to do with the closer and more the team, there is always a high turnover in the saves leaderboards from year-to-year.
| Year | June 1 | End of Season |
| 2021 | M. Melancon (17) | — |
| 2020* | Z. Britton (8) | B. Hand (16) |
| 2019 | K. Yates (22) | K. Yates (41) |
| 2018 | E. Diaz (19) | E. Diaz (57) |
| 2017 | G. Holland (19) | A. Colome (47) |
| 2016 | 2 tied (17) | J. Familia (51) |
| 2015 | G. Perkins (19) | M. Melancon (51) |
| 2014 | 3 tied (17) | F. Rodney (48) |
| 2013 | J. Grilli (22) | 2 tied (50) |
| 2012 | C. Perez (17) | J. Johnson (51) |
| 2011 | J. Oviedo (19) | J. Valverde (49) |
Only twice over the past 10 seasons has the June 1st saves leader successfully closed the most games come the end of September.
Mark Melancon is doing an awesome job closing games for San Diego, but so much of a closer’s success rides on his team’s performance that there is absolutely zero guarantee he sustains this success.
Today we learned there are a few stats in which we can be impressed by good starts, but most stats we cannot due to regression.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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