Are the Dolphins a Legitimate Contender?

Three weeks ago, the Miami Dolphins stood alone atop the AFC East at 3-0. Now tied with the Patriots at 4-2, Fins fans are less optimistic about their team’s playoff chances.

Vegas does not believe in Miami. Despite being tied for the division lead, the Dolphins are given +700 odds to win the East.

Team	Record	Odds to Win Div
Patriots	4-2	-1000
Dolphins	4-2	+700
Jets	3-3	+2000
Bills	2-4	+8000

The question has to be asked, are the Dolphins legit? Let’s listen to the story the numbers tell us and arrive at a conclusion.

Dolphins’ Ranks Through 6 Games

	NFL Rank
Pts/G	22nd
P Yds/G	25th
R Yds/G	16th
Pts Allowed/G	17th
P Yds Allowed/G	24th
R Yds Allowed/G	21st
TO Margin	9th

My initial reaction to seeing these numbers was: How on Earth are the Dolphins 4-2? These are the marks of a mediocre team, not one in first-place. How are they winning?

Dolphins Game-by-Game Results

Opponent	Line	Final Score	Dolphins ATS
Titans	EVEN	27-20 MIA	W
@ Jets	NYJ -3	20-12 MIA	W
Raiders	MIA -3	28-20 MIA	W
@ Patriots	NE -7	38-7 NE	L
@ Bengals	CIN -6.5	27-17 CIN	L
Bears	CHI -4	31-28 MIA	W

The Dolphins have won each of their 4 games by just 1 score while their 2 losses were both by double-digits. Miami has a -15 point differential this season, the worst in the NFL among winning teams.

The Dolphins’ record says they are good so we must assume this is true unless we can find evidence to the contrary.

Comparing the Dolphins to the 2014 Cardinals

I will start my search by attempting to find how teams with similar stats to Miami have fared in recent history. One candidate is the 2014 Arizona Cardinals.

This Cardinals team started 9-1 despite averaging fewer rushing and passing yards per game than the 2018 Dolphins average. They are the last team to win at least 4 of their first 6 with these offensive stats.

How were they winning so many games? The answer is takeaways.

The 2014 Cardinals allowed the 5th fewest points in the league despite ranking sub-par in yards allowed. A +8 turnover margin, also good for 5th in the league, bailed them out many times in the first-half of the season.

How did this 9-1 team finish? Try 11-5. That’s right, Arizona’s luck ran out and they stumbled to a 2-4 ending to the 2014 season.

This does not bode well for this year’s Dolphins, but it is only one example. Let’s look at another.

Comparing the Dolphins to the 2010 Bears

Another prime candidate for a Dolphins comparison is the 2010 Bears. This Bears team began 4-2 despite trotting out an offense worse than this year’s Dolphins product. Chicago was able to roll all season long, finishing 11-5.

So the 2014 Cardinals won with takeaways. How did the 2010 Bears get it done? The answer is a rock solid defense.

2010 Bears Defense Ranks

	Pts Allowed	Yds Allowed	Rush Yds Allowed
NFL Rank	4th	9th	2nd

The 2nd-best rushing defense in the league will make up for a lot of offensive deficiencies. This year’s Dolphins do not have this luxury (or anything even close to it) and will need a strong offense if they wish to win 9, 10, or even 11 games.

Miami Dolphins Verdict

This group does not possess an elite defense like the 2010 Bears so we cannot bank on that. The Dolphins are doing pretty well in the turnover department, but we saw in the example of the 2014 Cardinals how teams that rely on takeaways can implode down the stretch.

As savvy bettors, we should realize a good opportunity when we see one. The Dolphins are overvalued right now because they have been winning games in an unsustainable fashion and have inflated their record.

History tells us that Miami will regress back toward where their numbers indicate they should be, which is a 6-10 or 7-9 record.