Baltimore Snaps Streak – Starts Their Own – Becomes a Good Bet

The Baltimore Orioles beat the New York Yankees 6-3 in the nightcap of a doubleheader last Friday. This seemingly ordinary result sparked mass celebration in the city of Baltimore. Why? This victory snapped the Yankees’ 19-game winning streak in contests against the O’s.

via GIPHY

These AL East division rivals square off in about 18 or 19 games each year but the Orioles have not won one of these clashes since April 4, 2019.

Not only did the Orioles win once, but Baltimore went on to win 2 more games against New York last weekend. The script is now flipped as the Orioles own a 3-game winning streak against the Yankees and the Pinstripers must now search for solutions to stop the bleeding.

Bettors with the gut feeling to bet each Yankees-O’s matchup beginning on April 4, 2019 but the stubbornness to continue betting on the Yankees even after their loss would still be up $1,265 on the moneyline.

The runline provides an even better ROI but less raw profit over this period. With a 16-6 record, $100/game bettors would be up $825 for a 25.8% ROI. Take a look at this breakdown of betting profits over the past 22 Yankees-O’s meetings. The profits and ROIs are calculated for $100 bets placed on New York.

	ML ($, ROI)	RL ($, ROI)	Over ($, ROI)	Under ($, ROI)
First 19	19-0 ($1900, 40.9%)	16-3 ($1210, 43%)	16-2-1 ($1375, 64.2%)	2-16-1 (-$1508, -74%)
Last 3	0-3 (-$635, -100%)	0-3 (-$385, -100%)	1-2 (-$110, -34.9%)	2-1 ($85, 24.6%)
Total	19-3 ($1265, 24%)	16-6 ($825, 25.8%)	17-4-1 ($1265, 51.5%)	4-17-1 (-$1423, -59.7%)

Historical Significance of Baltimore Flipping the Script

The Orioles held the Yankees to 3, 1, and 1 runs respectively over their 3-straight victories last weekend. This must have stunned New York who averaged 8.37 runs over their 19-game-beating-up-on-Baltimore streak. During this streak, New York scored 8+ runs 12 times and reached double-digit runs 5 times. Their lowest-scoring game during the streak was a 3-1 victory.

This past week marks the first time since the end of the 2016 season in which the Orioles have beaten New York in three-straight games during the same season. Baltimore won 3 combined games between the end of the 2016 season and the beginning of the 2017 season. They then did it again the next year, stretching 3-straight wins over the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

The Orioles shut out the Yankees in 3-straight meetings in August and September of 2016 – winning 8-0, 5-0, and 2-0. Kevin Gausman beat C.C. Sabathia in both the first and last of these 3 games.

This was 1 of just 7 times in the past decade in which a team shut out its opponent in 3-straight games while scoring 15+ runs themselves.

Now on a 3-game-Yankees-beating streak, the numbers indicate the Baltimore moneyline should be bet! During the 2020 season, teams entering play with a winning streak against their opponent of 3+ games are 43-34 straight up with an average moneyline of (-138). This equates to $270 in profit and a 2.4% ROI. While these slim margins will not make you rich, they could be the factor which tips the handicapping scales from a push to a must-bet in Baltimore’s favor.

The Orioles square off with New York in a 4-game weekend series beginning Thursday September 10th. The numbers say to take the Baltimore moneyline. Those 200+ paydays will provide ample walking around money for the weekend.