Banged-up Colts Test Hot Streak vs Texans in Wild Card Round

Handicapping a pair of division rivals in a playoff game is tough. There’s a home-and-home series from which to handicap trends and angles, but in the case of the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans, those results don’t offer much help.

Divisional opponents know each other so well that even an apparent mismatch on the field can turn into a fierce struggle. That familiarity tends to tighten the gambling lines, even when the odds wouldn’t have been that disparate to begin with.

The Texans and Colts will meet on Saturday afternoon in Space City for an AFC Wild Card Round match-up, and bookies opened their point-spread markets giving the Colts a (-3) advantage. That’s really the same as saying there’s no competitive edge for either team – just a noisy venue to potentially disrupt the visiting offense.

As usual the betting public has its own ideas. Heavy action on Indianapolis-to-cover is driving the spread toward a potential pick’em scenario as the kickoff at NRG Stadium draws closer. That makes a whole lot of sense, since the teams split their regular season battles with field-goal margin victories, scoring an equal number of cumulative points.

Indy Sails Above 500

Much like the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC East, the AFC South runner-up Indianapolis Colts were left for dead sometime around mid-season. A 4-game losing streak left the inhabitants of Lucas Oil Stadium at 1-5, and a pair of breezy wins over Buffalo and Oakland prior to the club’s bye week seemed to do little except quiet the chatter about whether QB Andrew Luck could return to his pre-injury form.

But the victories weren’t anomalous. Soon the Colts were taking on stiffer competition – and winning again and again. Luck passed for 286 yards and 3 touchdowns as Indy beat Jacksonville 29-26, then showcased his chemistry with speedy WR T.Y. Hilton in a 38-10 stomping of Tennessee.

Hilton and 2nd-year tailback Marion Mack would go on to dominate their foes as the Colts won all but 1 of their remaining games to finish 10-6, buoyed by edge-rusher Denico Autry and a punishing defense that shut down the Dallas Cowboys in a 23-0 home victory on December 16th.

The winning formula has shown few cracks, but an injury to Hilton could represent an extremely ill-timed chink in the Colts’ armor. The receiver is listed “questionable” for the Wild Card game and did not practice Wednesday.

Worse yet, a gigantic chunk of the WR corps is ailing. The Colts have an expansive injury list heading into the wild-card playoff week, with a total of 5 receivers banged-up alongside safety Clayton Geathers and defensive lineman Tyquan Lewis.

Houston, We Have a…Trio of Superstars

Houston has its own injury problems. Saturday’s visitors are missing WR Demaryius Thomas along with a host of skill players and defenders.

The 3 most important pieces of the Texans’ puzzle will be suiting-up, however. Deshaun Watson has passed for over 4000 yards and is 2nd on the team in rushing, having driven the team to an 11-5 record and a division crown in ’18. He’ll be passing to DeAndre Hopkins, one of the most prolific and dangerous receivers in the sport. J.J. Watt lurks on the defensive side of the ball.

Match-up problems could occur on the line of scrimmage if Houston falls behind early and is unable to get RB Lamar Miller cranked up. Watson has taken a brutal 63 sacks this season, some of which are a product of his scrambling and all-out effort on every play. But it’s still a worrisome number against a defense like Indianapolis.

My Pick ATS…and a Live Bet at Halftime

If the Colts were playing at home, I’d take Indy in a heartbeat. But at NRG Stadium the healthier offense will find a way to move the football, and dare Andrew Luck to push an ailing unit into the Red Zone against Watt and company. Injuries, turnovers and snap-reaction disadvantage are likely to hurt the slight underdog in a hostile environment.

The W/L outcome could go either way and will depend on the breaks. Houston is the % play ATS, but a better wager is likely to be found on a live “over” bet at halftime.

No matter how banged-up each supporting cast may be, a pair of excellent QBs are likely to go for broke in the 2nd half after a cautious first 30 minutes. Wait for the O/U line to sink…and then venture an in-play for a winner.