Best of the West – Breaking Down the NCAA Tournament’s West Region

Gonzaga, Michigan, Texas Tech, Florida State, Buffalo, Marquette, Nevada, Syracuse, Florida, Baylor, Arizona State, Murray State, Vermont, Montana, Northern Kentucky, Fairleigh Dickinson.

These are the 16 teams of the 2019 NCAA Tournament’s West Region ranked in order of how likely Bovada feels they are to reach the Final Four.

After spending some time looking over the brackets, I have decided that the West Region is the most interesting and exploitable region of the tournament this year. The forecast calls for unpredictability with a high chance of profits.

Like a moth to light, so many factors draw me to this side of the bracket. I have compiled a list of the top 3 reasons why the West is so inviting. Take a look!

#1 – Highest Totals of the Tournament

With an average total of 140, Vegas predicts the West Region to be right up there with the Midwest for the highest-scoring games in the First Round. Not only is this fun to watch as fans, but we can strike at the opportunity and turn our brackets into a cash grab.

Scoring 150 points in a college basketball game is a big feat. The offences really need to be clicking for Vegas to set a pregame total that high. In last year’s tournament, the under prevailed each of the 2 times the total was set at or above 150.

Just in the First Round alone in the West Region are 3 games with a current total of 150+. The other 3 regions have 2 such games combined. Vegas predicts the West to be a track meet. Remember, just because the total is higher does not mean the chances the over wins are any better.

Due to a lack of consistency over the years, I would avoid placing O/U bets on the West. I would simply enjoy the increased scoring and allow myself to get caught up in the action.

#2 – The Best 7-Seed in the Field

24-1, a top-10 ranking, a projected 2-seed in the NCAA tournament. All 3 of these once described the Nevada Wolf Pack until the team lost 3 conference games down the stretch and then took an early exit from the MWC tourney.

Ending their performance on a sour note, the committee felt Nevada should sink all the way to a 7-seed. This demotion means that 10-seed Florida will have to face the toughest 7-seed in the field while 2-seed Michigan might be in store for one heck of a Second Round game.

At +1800 to win the West and reach the Final Four, I think a bet might be worth it. Keep reminding yourself Nevada is truly a 2 or 3-seed in disguise.

#3 – The Best Potential Sweet 16 Matchup

Ok, so maybe it’s tied for the best matchup. The Midwest could produce a North Carolina-Kansas showdown. That’s 1 against 4. I think it would be a terrific game, but I understand not everyone has the confidence in Kansas that I do.

The West could produce a matchup that I’ve already heard some buzzing about on social media and such … Michigan-Texas Tech. A Final Four team versus an Elite Eight team – each mowed down last season by the Jay Wright-operated buzzsaw of a basketball team at Villanova.

Michigan is given the advantage in this hypothetical matchup. The Wolverines are given +350 odds to win the West Region while TTU’s odds rest at +550.

The concerning thing about Michigan is the fact they were swept in a 3-game season series by Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans. The flaws of the Wolverines were routinely exposed during these 3 games, leading me to believe Beilein’s current squad may not be as well suited for championship basketball as last year’s Michigan roster was.

#4 – Other Odds ‘n Ends

In my opinion, Gonzaga is the second-best 1-seed of the tournament, behind Duke. I’ve talked the Bulldogs up for most the season and predicted they would reach the Elite Eight. At this point, however, they would likely face either Michigan, Texas Tech, or Nevada – any of whom could rise up and send Mark Few home upset.

At +110 to reach the Final Four, Vegas certainly thinks the Bulldogs are up for the task. These are the second-best odds for a team to win its region, behind Duke again. Gonzaga’s odds have shifted toward the house since I wrote my last piece. This indicates a lot of public money backing Gonzaga.

One final note is that Ja Morant plays in the West. I’ve sung this guy’s praises for the entire season. I have written about Morant and name dropped him so much over the past few weeks that I decided he did not need a huge write up here.

Here is my parting bit for thought: Morant and the Racers are facing off against 5-seed Marquette and their elite scorer Markus Howard. In the early going of games, star players typically like to pass more than they normally would in order to get their teammates into the flow of the game. Morant and Howard both know they can get their buckets in the second half when the intensity rises and the defense tightens up.

Whichever player better gets his teammates rolling will probably be winning at halftime. I am betting the Murray State First Half Moneyline for +125, expecting that Ja Morant and his 10+ assists per game will get the job done.

Marquette is +2000 to reach the Final Four while Murray State is all the way down at +8000. This is a huge discrepancy given the fact that Marquette is only 3.5-point favorites on Bovada.

Murray State finished the season with a 27-4 record and they have a top-3 NBA pick in their backcourt. The upside is so great that I would probably bet these guys if they were only 20 to 1 longshots. Vegas has no faith. We can get Murray State reaching the Final Four at 80 to 1! I feel good about that value.

Let the games begin!