Brady’s Pats are 3-Point ‘Dogs vs Mahomes-Led Juggernaut in KC

In college I was forced to go through composition drills that required penning 2 fake stories and a real story, and everyone in class had to figure out which was the real thing and which were fake.

It’s kind of like that with this Sunday’s AFC Championship Game in Missouri.

In one narrative there’s the all-conquering and infallible New England Patriots, field goal underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium only because bookies are too chicken to face up to the obvious. Modern NFL institution Tom Brady will ride dramatically out of town on Monday after winning his 50^th AFC Championship in a row, marking yet another Super Bowl appearance in a career full of them.

In another, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs’ time to rule the roost. Patrick Mahomes, the young lion, is about to vanquish the old lion Tom Terrific and the NFL Athletes from Boston with help of Andy Reid’s space-age offense and a pass rush that could penetrate the edge against Star Trek force fields.

But those are tall tales. The truth? As usual, it’s somewhere in between. Las Vegas is actually being scientific – home-field advantage for the Chiefs is worth at least (-3) points in what otherwise appears to be an evenly-matched battle.

Andy Does It

There are those who never thought that the Kansas City Chiefs would get this far in the playoffs, even though has coach Andy Reid has arguably his best team since taking over the Red and Gold. The skipper’s 11-13 postseason record coming into 2018-19 was no salve on the fans’ concerns.

.@Patriots vs. @Chiefs.

See you in the AFC Championship game. #NEvsKC #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/MqWuDfSIqb

— NFL (@NFL) January 13, 2019

Reid and the Chiefs responded to the pressure by blowing away the Indianapolis Colts 31-13 in the AFC Divisional Round, playing exactly the kind of football that the roster was designed to play. The offensive line gashed holes in the Colts’ front-7, allowing Damien Williams to gallop for 129 yards while a well-protected Mahomes passed for 278 on 41 attempts. Defense isn’t an issue so long as the team is substantially ahead, and big veteran LB crumpled Andrew Luck with 2 sacks as Indy managed less than 300 total yards.

In some respects, the performance represented a more well-rounded game than Kansas City had been able to put on the field consistently all season.

Mahomes is wonderful, and he’s got elite weapons like WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce to toss the egg to on the outside and down the middle. The team’s 13-4 record is no accident. But the defense looked helpless against the run at times in mid-autumn, and when the Chiefs’ own ground game couldn’t control the ball (it’s hard to control the ball with a high-tempo style anyway), opponents scored points in bunches and threatened upsets.

In a 3-week span from mid-November to early December, the Chiefs played listlessly in a 26-14 win over the poor Arizona Cardinals, lost to the L.A. Rams in an epic prime-time shoot-out, and squeaked by the Raiders 40-33 after giving up 17 points to the last-place Silver and Black in the 4^th quarter alone.

Brady Plays Whack-a-Troll

The iconic New England QB ranted to the media that “everyone thinks we suck” after helping his Patriots best the L.A. Chargers 41-28 in a Divisional playoff game that wasn’t nearly that close.

The Patriots finished 11-5 after 16 games, so any social media trolls who think 11 wins in the NFL equals “suck” are not worth the players’ attention and should be made to sashay their rear ends out on the field to try it for themselves sometime.

Is there much substance to Brady’s defiant boasting? No, except that the future HOFer understands that a team needs extra fuel on the fire at this stage.

There was no spare tank needed last weekend. The signal-caller had a vintage day, going 33-of-44 against an overwhelmed Charger defense. Former Georgia standout Sony Michel had a 100+ yard day running the rock, and swift DBs Devon and Jason McCourty were all over the field for the Pats.

Winter Aches and Pains

It’s forecast to be mighty cold in Kansas City on Sunday, which should help neither team competitively since they’re both used to it. The weather reports have been enough to help drive the Over/Under total down to (55.5).

Kansas City is dealing with a number of minor injuries that could hamper the squad’s depth. But there’s almost nothing but good news from this week’s updates. Eric Berry is a full participant in practice while Sammy Watkins has fully recovered from a foot injury. The receiver grabbed 6 catches in the win over Indianapolis.

The Chiefs have also finally activated OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif from injured reserve. Safety Ron Parker has been released as a result.

Likewise, the Patriots are pretty darn healthy in sum total. They just need to bring a healthy amount of hoodies and hand-warmers to KC.

My Picks on the Point Spread and Moneyline

Not to be superstitious, but cold, wind and precipitation aren’t the only 3 cosmic factors that could affect the AFC title scrum. A lunar eclipse could occur in the 4^th quarter if the game takes long enough. Not only that, but the event is nicknamed the “Super Wolf Blood Moon” by astronomers for the eerie hue that the celestial body will adopt.

The match-up is wildly unpredictable. The Pats know that KC’s weakness is run defense, and the Patriots have struggled to get to opposing QBs on the road. Those 2 variables put together means that New England would be insane not to try to control the ball and the clock. Yet any NFL defense is able to stuff-up the run in the early going provided that the unit sells out to do so.

Nobody can be sure Rob Gronkowski isn’t reaching the phase-out stage of his career until he proves it in another big game. It’s been a while since Gronk lorded over the Shield.

Game management is not Reid’s strongest suit, and he could be outcoached by Bill Belichick…who we may even see call for the old I-formation on Sunday. But if it’s a freezing colt mist by the Missouri plains and the temperature drops below zero just as the Moon turns red in the sky? We could witness an atmosphere that neither skipper has any real experience dealing with, making the coaching discrepancy a wash.

I do know that in a toss-up type of meeting, the underdog is always the correct pick.

Like taking Bayern Munich to win Bundesliga as a ‘dog in ‘19, the gambler can rest assured that he’s getting his wager’s worth in a team that is, for good reason, usually the favorite. Tom Brady has not been the underdog in a playoff or regular season game since 2014.

Take the Pats on the moneyline (+145) or ATS (+3).