Do You Know Your NFL Teams? – Week 12 Edition

You watch the games on Sunday. You watch Sportscenter and NFL Insiders. You listen to the analysts. Do you really know your NFL teams, though?

Betting the NFL for profit requires a different knowledge set than following the NFL for leisure. To be a good handicapper and sports bettor, you need to dig beyond what the media is spouting.

Sports talk anchors, ESPN analysts, and in-game commentators have one goal in mind – entertainment. Ever notice how every other story on sports shows are about LeBron James? He is popular, so they talk about him … even when there is no story to talk about.

Former Colts punter turned football podcaster Pat McAfee uses the phrase “obligatory Cowboys talk” to explain why the Cowboys get so much media coverage despite being mediocre every single year.

Dallas has a huge fan base and is always on the Game of the Week. The media feels the need to air “obligatory Cowboys talk” even if the team is struggling.

Which teams do you hear about all the time? Patriots, Cowboys, Patrick Mahomes’ team, Antonio Brown’s team … that’s about it. You never hear about the Buffalos, Jacksonvilles, or Indianapolises of the league despite their good seasons.

I am going to administer 2 tests that will determine whether you are a leisure-level NFL follower or a profit-level follower.

Test #1 – Can You Guess This Team

This team made the playoffs last season and is on pace to do so again, but they are not a good team to bet ATS.

This team is 5-6 ATS in 2019 and has fallen a full touchdown short of covering the spread on 3 separate occasions. This team comes out especially flat at home, sporting abysmal 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU home records.

Games involving this team tend to be high scoring and go over the Vegas total. The over is 6-4-1 in this team’s games. This team has outscored their Vegas projected points total in 8 of their 11 games, while their opponents have outscored their projection in 6 of 11 games.

This team’s quarterback is tremendous – throwing for the 4th-most yards in football with only 2 picks. This team benefits from good pass blocking – allowing the 2nd-fewest sack yards lost to their starting quarterback.

This team is not very good on the ground, though – rushing for the 11-fewest yards per game in the NFL this year.

This team looks good on paper, gets plenty of media coverage, but often disappoints on the field. Who is this team? Check below for the answer.

Test #2 – Which Team is the Better Bet?

Team A		Team B
3-7-1	SU Record	9-1
-6.3	Avg SU Margin	+14
+5.7	Avg Line	-4.8
7-4	Over-Under	5-5
8-3	ATS Record	5-5

Team A’s quarterback is a first-year starter. Team B’s is a 6-year vet and 2-time Super Bowl winner.

Team A is way down in the standings but has been making ATS bettors rich all season long. Team B is killing it on the scoreboard but is unpredictable when betting ATS or O/U.

Team A has lost their previous 4 games SU, but is 3-1 ATS in that stretch. Team B is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games, but 1-4 ATS.

Team A’s games tend to go over the total. Team A has outscored their Vegas points projection in 8 of their 11 games. Team A’s opponents have also outscored their projection in 8 of 11 games.

These two teams played each other in Week 11. Team B won the game but Team A won ATS.

Which team would you rather put your money on ATS? O/U? SU?

Answers: The mystery team from the 1st scenario is the Kansas City Chiefs. KC is 7-4 SU but 5-6 ATS.

Team A is Arizona and Team B is San Francisco. SF beat ARI 36-26 in Week 11, failing to cover the 10.5-point spread. Arizona is obviously the better O/U and ATS bet.

SF is overvalued. I would rather get plus odds by betting ARI on the moneyline than have to lay massive odds on SF.

See you on top!