Don’t be Duped by Obscure Trends

If you have never been on the NFL trends page of Killersports, you are missing out. The trends page is just one of the many great features Killersports offers. I use the features of this site for many of my articles. While accessing the information is easy, using it to make wise decisions and create profitable systems is much more difficult.

I am here to teach how to filter out the obscure, coincidental trends and bet only the simple, meaningful ones. If you follow that last link to the trends page, you will see recent trends for each NFL matchup sorted by ATS, SU, and OU.

For illustration, I will use the Houston Texans ATS trends for this weekend’s game against the Jets. There are 5 of them listed (the first is actually an OU trend), and I will break down one legit trend and one obscure trend, explaining how I would analyze each as if I were intending to bet the game. Let’s get started!

Trend #1 – Following a Low-Scoring, Turnover-Free Loss

Trend #1 states that the over is a perfect 14-0 in a game when the Houston Texans are following up a loss in which they scored fewer than 28 points while being turnover-free. This trends holds true throughout the entire 16-year history of the franchise.

Is it legit? Should I bet the over in the Texans-Jets game? We need to dig a bit deeper to find out.

When I click on the trend, I see to see the breakdown of all games that this has occurred. The first red flag is that the Texans have not had such a game since 2013. In fact, this scenario has only occurred twice this decade.

Before making any judgements, I checked league-wide statistics for this scenario. I wanted to see if there was something special about the Texans or if the over hit for all teams in this situation. I found that since 2002, the over was only 52.3% when a team was following a turnover-free loss in which they scored fewer than 28 points.

Because this appears to be a trend unique to the Texans but it has not surfaced in 5 years, I am going to ignore this trend because the team in Houston is totally different in 2018 than it was in 2013. This does not mean the over will not hit, it just means this trend has no predictive power.

Trend #2 – Teams With 3+ Straight Turnover-Free Games Are 66.2% ATS

On to the next one. The Texans have been exceptional at not turning the ball over this year. When they lost to the Colts last, it was not due to turnovers – they had 0. Because this team has been very consistent with their ball control, we can trust it to continue.

When teams do not turn the ball over they tend to win a high percentage of their games. This is not just a Texans thing, it is true across the NFL. The second trend states that since 1989 (which is the first season that Killersports has data for), teams off 3 or more straight games with 0 TOs are 86-44-4 (66.2%) ATS.

Unlike the previous trend whose last action was in 2013, this trend has come into play 7 times already in 2018. The trend has held true, with such teams earning a 4-3 ATS record, good for a 57.1% win rate and a 9.1% ROI.

I really like this trend for two reasons:

1: It is simple.

2: It is logical.

Teams that do not turn it over will play much better than teams that do turn it over. Unlike just 1 turnover-free game which may be a fluke, 3 straight games with 0 TOs indicates a team is much better than most at controlling the ball.

If this is so, then I would expect a higher rate of both ATS and SU wins than most teams. I endorse this particular trend. You do not have to throw money down on the Texans to cover, but I think it’s a +EV play.

Texans -6 (-110)

Jets +6 (-110)

My job is to provide you with as much info and knowledge as possible. The final decision is up to you!