Eagles Are Underdogs for the First Time

Winning Super Bowl 52 in thrilling fashion this past February led to lofty expectations for the Philadelphia Eagles heading into 2018. Stumbling onto the scene with a 4-5 start is causing fans and bettors alike to wonder if the team will ever get their act straightened out.

The Eagles were a popular pick for the NFC East title, NFC Championship, and a Super Bowl 53 win prior to this season. Those odds are currently much juicier thanks to a less-than-stellar start.

	NFC East Title	NFC Conference Title	Super Bowl Title
Preseason PHI Odds	-140	+700	+1400
Current PHI Odds	+230	+1800	+3300

Vegas has not proven they can correctly handicap the returning champs this year. Despite winning just 4 of their first 9, the Eagles have been favorites in every single game of the 2018 season.

Eagles 2018 Season Recap

Week	Opponent	Score	PHI Line	SU Result	ATS Result
1	vs ATL	18-12 PHI	-2	W	W
2	@ TB	27-21 TB	-3	L	L
3	vs IND	20-16 PHI	-6.5	W	L
4	@ TEN	26-23 TEN	-3	L	L
5	vs MIN	23-21 MIN	-3	L	L
6	@ NYG	34-13 PHI	-3	W	W
7	vs CAR	21-17 CAR	-4.5	L	L
8	JAX*	24-18 PHI	-3.5	W	W
9	BYE	—	—	—	—
10	vs DAL	27-20 DAL	-7	L	L
11	@ NO	??	+9	??	??
Total		AVG 22-20 PHI	-3.9 PHI	4-5	3-6

* neutral site game in London

If you did not catch it, the Eagles are going to be underdogs for the first time in Week 11.

This looks to me like a classic case of the oddsmakers overreacting after a bad showing. Because there is normally a full week in between games, game-to-game momentum does not really exist in the NFL.

Pro football is a week-by-week sport, meaning past performance does not strongly correlate to present and future results. Each week is a new week.

After losing by a touchdown as 7-point favorites to the Cowboys, Philly is now given 9 points on the road in their next matchup. I’ll say that again – the team that has been favorites all year long is now 9-point dogs.

The best explanation I can come up with for this shift is that Vegas is overreacting. Maybe they are actually anticipating the public to overreact, but either way, someone is overreacting.

I don’t think that these teams are 9 points apart, provided the Eagles can finally hold onto the football for once. Let’s look at some numbers.

Saints-Eagles Versus Common Opponents

New Orleans has faced 4 of the same teams that Philly has played this season. Below is a breakdown of how the two fared respectively.

Common Opponent	PHI Line	NO Line	PHI Result	NO Result
ATL	-2	+1.5	Won by 6	Won by 6
TB	-3	-9.5	Lost by 6	Lost by 8
MIN	-3	-2.5	Lost by 2	Won by 10
NYG	-3	-3.5	Won by 21	Won by 15
AVERAGE	-2.75	-3.5	Won by 4.75	Won by 5.75

Extremely similar – the only major difference being that the Eagles lost close to Minnesota while the Saints handled the Vikings by double digits.

The Eagles achilles heel against Minnesota was – as it has been all year – fumbles. Philly coughed it up twice in that one and it cost them dearly, as they lost by a mere two points.

The Verdict

I said it earlier this season, Philly is undervalued because fumble problems are holding them back. I’m going to be backing the Eagles this week because I really like their chances, not only to stay within 9 but to win the game.

Only two teams this century have been underdogs in their 10th game after being favored in each of their first 9 games despite winning 4 or less of them.

Those two? The 2011 Eagles and the 2016 Panthers. Below is a quick look at what they did in that 10th game.

Team	Record	Line	Score	ATS Result
‘11 PHI	3-6	+5.5	Won 17-10	W
‘16 CAR	3-6	+3.5	Lost 35-32	W
‘18 PHI	4-5	+9	??	??

Small sample size? While this is not standalone proof, the fact that these teams are 2-0 ATS helps to bolster my faith in Philly. There is not much (besides fumbles) separating these two on paper.

I’m taking the Eagles +9 all day.