English Premier League: Toffeemen vs Gunners Betting Lines and Best Picks for This Saturday and Sunday

It’s almost always a bad idea to infer a “trend” from a 1-game sample size, but this Friday’s outcome between Chelsea and Fulham speaks loud and clear to Premier League speculators, even as the match’s crowd was quieted by the lack of goals.

Cottagers of Fulham Football Club now stand in an amazing 7th place in the Premier League, and could follow Wolves’ accomplishment as a rare promoted side to instantly contend for UEFA qualification. Chelsea Football Club is ailing in form and quality, and has suffered defeat to far-lesser sides in multiple competitions this cycle. But the betting odds favored Blues as if Chelsea were taking on Norwich City in the EFL Cup semi-finals.

It wasn’t because Chelsea is bound for a hot streak in the immediate future. Chelsea’s incomplete lineup has represented the club nobly against several top-rated sides in 2022-23, forging a recent scoreless draw with Man United, and losing to Man City and Arsenal F.C. by only the smallest of margins. But the Champions League draw has been so fortuitous, and Blues were knocked out of the FA Cup and Carabao Cup so handily, that any long-term sunshine from the lack of difficult slate turns is offset by gloomy clouds for supporters with almost no marquee victories to speak of anywhere on the continent. Chelsea’s form has been so questionable that Pensioners gave away 7 points to Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, and to Fulham within a span of 4 Premier League kickoffs. Now with only a point to show for Friday, the club is in dire straits.

Las Vegas and London seemed convinced that Chelsea F.C., a recent winner of Champions League gold, couldn’t possibly drop 4-to-6 points to an incoming EPL brand in a given season. Results from good old-fashioned Saturday and Sunday (and Friday) matches were starting to say otherwise long before the supposedly “David vs Goliath” meeting kicked off. David’s leading Goliath in points, by the way.

Are there signs of “reputational bonus points” in the FanDuel Sportsbook markets for this weekend’s Premier League slate? You bet. But that doesn’t mean another 4-to-1 pick is always the answer. Let’s try to find the most favorable seams in a rather unkempt quilt woven by the gambling public this time around.

Premier League This Weekend: Selected Match Odds, Lines, and Predictions

Everton vs Arsenal (Saturday, February 4)

There are Premier League favorites, and then there are favorites who don’t get handicapped or wagered quite like favorites—at least not yet. Mikel Arteta’s club is now FanDuel Sportsbook’s top pick to finish atop the English Premier League table, and 5 points clear of Manchester City with an additional match-to-play in hand. Yet once again, the odds FanDuel’s bookmakers are offering for Saturday’s early match require a bit of explanation at first glance, as ailing Everton (+700) isn’t as steep an underdog vs Arsenal’s 1-to-2 odds, comparatively speaking. Toffeemen are tied for last place with Southampton, and typical Premiership matches held between the very best team and the league’s caboose are handicapped, with Man City getting 1-to-5 next to West Bromwich’s (+2000) odds.

Are the match odds too “historical” and not cognizant enough that Arsenal should dominate the proceedings? There’s no evidence that Everton’s overall form has improved at home or away, given that Toffees approach this weekend with another 4-match losing streak across 2 competitions. If high-rollers are willing to pick legendary brands like Green Bay and CSKA Moscow to suffer blow-out losses, then Everton’s reputation alone can’t spark the action.

Everton’s struggles are well known. Perhaps too well-known for gamblers’ own good. February is not the time at which expert Premier League bettors begin scanning the EPL table for well-motivated and unmotivated teams. The intricate tiers of the Premiership are too log jammed for that, and there are too many fixtures to go. But in the case of Everton’s woebegone lineup, Toffees of 2022-23 have been fighting off a relegation threat since late 2021. Everyone is well aware that each match to come is a “must-win” for Saturday’s hosts. Unwise long-shot bets on Toffees may fall prey to users not considering the flip-side of that angle, as Arsenal’s lineup-choices in Cup campaigns show where Gunners’ focus lies.

WagerBop’s Pick: Arsenal ATS (-1) (+120)

Wolverhampton vs Liverpool (Saturday, February 4)

Saturday’s matches to follow involve a set of odds that look profoundly weird. Liverpool’s not about to get thrown to the “Wolves,” considering that Molineux Stadium isn’t considered such a difficult place to play for the time being. Wolverhampton’s lowly rank hasn’t stopped bookmakers from placing more skeptical lines on Liverpool (-115), scarcely a minus-odds pick to defeat Wanderers this Saturday. More embarrassing for Liverpool supporters, the most popular “Exact Score” prop bet for Wolves vs Liverpool is a “1-1” draw at (+650) prop odds. Reds are downtrodden after losing to Brighton yet again in the FA Cup.

At least bookmakers are confident that the match at Molineux will be lively without Wolves’ trademark iron defending, with (-126) odds next to Over (2.5) total goals for the match. We’re not making that mistake again after predicting a Chelsea-Liverpool slugfest.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5) (+108)

Manchester United vs Crystal Palace (Saturday, February 4)

Manchester United’s all-competitions momentum came to at least a pause in the last-minute road defeat to Arsenal, and Red Devils are now tied with Newcastle United at merely 39 points earned, double-digits behind Arsenal’s total.

It’s safe to say that there’s an angle of “sentiment” and recent supporters’ buzz behind MUFC’s (-290) money-line odds to beat Crystal Palace (+800) on Saturday, given that Palace has taken points from Manchester United and equally-efficient Newcastle United in just the last 3 Premier League outings. Eagles have quietly amassed 6 league victories on the cycle, and appear to have recovered somewhat from a dreadful series of matches just following the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Don’t pick a line that’s thinner than it should be.

WagerBop’s Pick: Handicap Draw (Man United (-1)) (+240)

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United (Sunday, February 5)

Relegation to English Championship is a specter that’s never been more intriguing than this season, as at least 2 of 2022-23’s incoming Premier League clubs can be found gobbling-up points at the midway mark. Fulham is standing in an amazing 7th place and may follow Wolverhampton’s accomplishment as a rare promoted side to instantly contend for UEFA honors. “Tricky Trees” of Nottingham Forest gave away a lot of money, or at least weekend league points, to aristocrats in early 2022-23, but has been reestablishing its Robin Hood reputation by thieving key draws and victories over the winter.

Nottingham Forest is 4 points clear of 18th-place Bournemouth, and draws a (+220) line to be relegated, or about 2-in-3 chances to stay afloat through 2023-24 at the top level. Our blog believes that those odds are too pessimistic, for Tricky Trees have played well enough to manufacture several more Premier League seasons in the 2020s if they keep it up.

Just glance at the teams’ disparate futures odds, however, and consider that Nottingham’s home turf isn’t considered the kind of gauntlet Molineux Stadium usually is, and it is more than apparent that Leeds would be a substantial favorite under most circumstances. Leave it to soccer’s strange player-movement system to turn an ordinary match into a potential battle for bragging rights. Leeds and Nottingham are locked in a transfer-rights battle that could actually cast Tricky Trees as the more prominent brand from a business perspective.

Weston McKennie of the USMNT has been preparing to play for Leeds United of the Premiership, but Nottingham Forest has also been making a play for the Yank. Experience tells us that sour vinegar between coaches can spill-over into violent disputes among footballers, and so a management rivalry could also spark a corker at City Ground.

High-rollers know that when ice hockey players are angry, they tend to score a lot and forget about defense. Temperamental matches in the Premier League tend to be less predictable from an Over/Under bettor’s point of view, and moreover, Leeds and Nottingham’s tightened money-line odds show that bookmakers have forgotten how likely a dull 1-0 snooze-fest may be between teams with every reason to nurse a 1-0 lead.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5) (-108)