Typically, our English Premier League betting previews begin with a recap of what happened in the EPL last weekend.
So let’s go over that. *chirp chirp chirp* Orrrr not.
English football, of course, took a substantial break to allow players to represent their flags in FIFA Q-matches. Viewers noticed Christian Pulisic and other Premiership names appearing over the weekend as North American (CONCACAF) squads tried to qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
But the English clubs were stingy, and have called all hands back on deck for a restart of the Premier League and Championship cycles this weekend. That makes Neymar and Selecao supporters nervous as hell, but gives us a Saturday of starting-11 football to view through the lens of this week’s futures odds.
English Premier League Futures Odds as of 9/9/21
Lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
Man City -105
Man Utd +650
Aston Villa +10000
West Ham +10000
Crystal Palace +10000
Premier League outright-winner odds have seen little change during the international break. Gamblers have watched closely for injuries in FIFA matches, but South American stars of the EPL have already committed to their club matches this weekend. Meanwhile, the United States and other North American favorites are languishing in WCQ pool play, but at least Christian Pulisic and other footballers from legacy clubs like Liverpool and Chelsea were able to stay upright and return to their Premier League teams well-rested.
Soccer supporters should remain alert, however, for club-league futures odds to change during international breaks. For instance, an injury to Ronaldo in a FIFA match could ruin Manchester United’s season and scuttle the spoils of long, expensive negotiations. Pulisic’s health has become a major factor in Chelsea Football Club’s success, a landmark angle that should make Yankee supporters proud even as Team USA continues to disappoint in big matches. Meanwhile, the dodgy lineups of South American national teams in FIFA qualifiers late this week could make the EPL’s odds more attractive markets for state-side bettors.
Nobody likes to wager on unfamiliar reserve-teams when the real thing is available. Plenty of folks like to gamble on Neymar, but half of the prop bets are on how many meters he’ll roll in 90 minutes.
Only 6 teams are now considered to have better than 1-in-100 chances to win the Premier League, and storied Leicester City is a 75-to-1 wager to lift the hardware. The list of 100-to-1 picks already includes Arsenal, Everton, and Wolves. We can expect even more traditional powers to be ruled-out quickly in autumn.
Matchweek 4 Premier League Odds and Lines
September 11: Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur
Just looking at the Premier League table, you would never know that Tottenham is still a long-shot futures pick. Spurs hold a commanding – if early – position with 9 points earned in 3 matches. That’s not uncommon for an elite English team, yet the circumstances surrounding the 3 wins almost give Tottenham the vibe of a charmed season. Harry Kane was supposedly headed to Man City and wasn’t on the pitch for Lilywhites as the 2021-22 Premiership cycle officially began.
Son Heung-Min of the Samurai Blue stepped up in the Three Lions star’s absence as he has on many occasions, scoring a winner over City in an emotional opening match. Kane returned to the club last weekend as Spurs beat visiting Hornets 1-0. Son suffered a calf wound in the match after scoring yet another winner, but 3 straight clean-sheet victories for Tottenham have FanDuel’s bookies giving plus-odds on “Over (2.5)” for Saturday’s upcoming fixture.
Best Bet: Under (2.5)
September 11: Manchester City vs Leicester City
The match between Crystal Palace and Tottenham is just breakfast; Foxes vs Citizens is the Saturday match a plurality of football supporters can’t wait to watch. Just to make things even more intriguing, our blog recommends a pick on the steep underdog.
Jamie Vardy of Leicester has a terrific lifetime record vs Man City manager Pep Guardiola, who can figure out how to rotate 20 players and stay ahead of the Premier League but hasn’t yet perfected a game plan against select counter-attacking counterparts.
Best Bet: Draw (+330)
September 11: Man United vs Newcastle United
Though perhaps surprising for sportsbook browsers who imagine a much simpler angle, this Saturday’s (-550) moneyline on MUFC has less to do with Ronaldo’s skills than with Manchester United’s supporting troops.
Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s reign as Red Devils manager has included wild shifts in quality as morale soars and sinks off the pitch. Expert EPL gamblers will advise picking an underdog over a distracted, overconfident favorite, especially when a team sees its 1/5 odds to win in the English papers. But this time, Ronaldo’s return/debut means that every MUFC footballer is dying to play in Saturday’s match, and is certain to play with FIFA-level intensity to try to help CR7 score that maiden goal. There’s no chance Man United will let down vs Magpies with Ronaldo helming its attack.
Regardless, bettors spending 5x as much to bet on United to beat Newcastle might want to be a bit more cautious. Monday’s headlines included the bummer possibility that Ronaldo might be sidelined for at least the kickoff on Saturday, as he has more days of quarantine prior to stepping onto the Red Devils training ground.
The prospect of Solskjær throwing Ronaldo on the pitch in the 2nd half to boost Manchester United’s attack is intriguing, and the great striker is always capable of scoring big goals.
However, such speculative fantasies probably aren’t worth investing in a 1-to-5 moneyline.
Best Bet: Newcastle ATS (+2)
WagerBop‘s other picks for EPL Saturday/Sunday:
Arsenal (-1) ATS vs Norwich City
Brentford (+185) over Brighton & Hove Albion
Southampton vs West Ham – Under (2.5)
Wolves (+135) over Watford
Chelsea vs Aston Villa – Under (2.5)
(9/12) Liverpool (-130) vs Leeds United
September 13: Burnley vs Everton
Toffeemen could be viewed as having gotten off to another slow start. Everton’s 2-2 draw at Leeds United was a chilling moment for long-shot EPL futures speculators who abandoned Everton’s line to the (+10000) “pits” just days later.
Objectively, though, the club has had a good summer, winning the exhibition Florida Cup before going unbeaten with 2 victories in subsequent league play.
Toffeemen made John Smith’s Stadium smell like Ma & Pa Kettle’s (if you’re from the United Kingdom, just insert a famous English toffee-maker instead) in a 2-1 EFL Cup win over Huddersfield. The team then went on to defeat Brighton & Hove Albion 2-0 just prior to the international break. Burnley has also advanced to the EFL Cup’s 3rd round, but a pedestrian Clarets attack too-closely resembles the squad’s form in May when it fell to opposing clean sheets in 4 straight EPL matches.
Best Bet: Everton
Kurt has authored close to 1000 stories covering football, soccer, basketball, baseball, ice hockey, prize-fighting and the Olympic Games. Kurt posted a 61% win rate on 200+ college and NFL gridiron picks last season. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.