FBS Week 6 Prime-Time Odds and Picks: USC vs WSU Spread Plus Saturday’s Red River Underdog

A coach of an also-ran Olympic hockey team once said of Team USA in the late 1990s, “it is difficult to go into a game and know that you are going to lose.” (If only he knew how many times USA Hockey would lose, on the rink and in public relations, in the decades since then.)

That’s not exactly the plight of a “hot” pigskin handicapper, but it’s close. WagerBop’s college and NFL picks went 8-1-1 last weekend (if you count MNF, anyway) and it’s not that we believe we’re going to lose this week or in any given week, but at some point, significant lost-pick numbers will come again, and furthermore it’s easier to maintain a hot-streak in daily sports or intermittently-scheduled sports (like European soccer) than in the more-or-less inflexible weekly cycle of Yankee pigskin.

Baseball (not to turn this into a George Carlin routine) scrolls that are winning 70% or 80% of their recommended bets can always fall back on consensus, percentage picks for a while, relying on the “bell curve” of likely outcomes to sit-pat. Football prognosticators, like Saturday refs, must clear the cobwebs and reset everything afresh after a time, and going 1-8 on 9 picks of the “new set” means that you’ve done something so wrong in the fresh week that all the prior gains are gone.

Ah, but that’s what’s kind of cool about Week 6 in the FBS, even though some of the unique circumstances stem from a troubling reason. Week 5 has stretched into Week 6 days in the hurricane-addled landscape of Florida, while it’s the AAC and the Mountain West’s “B-Flight” (rather than the “virtual Friday Night Lights” brand Boise State, or the MAC) that provides our unorthodox best chance to actually start winning weekday predictions on the gridiron too, which would be nice.

Overall, it’s the sort of mix-up that can help keep a speculator feeling cocky and warm to the challenge, instead of the same-old schedule bringing about “when the shoe drops” vibes.

Why not start with a bold prediction on Wednesday night’s kickoff in Orlando? After all, it is technically a Week 5 game…and WagerBop was pretty accurate that week.

FBS Previews, Odds, and Best Picks This Week

SMU Mustangs at Central Florida Knights (Wednesday, October 5)

National Football League junkies could have been surprised to flip-on the television and see the UF Gators defeating Eastern Washington way after the college-football weekend was supposed to be over. Despite the bright, pleasant weather that the Gators and Eagles enjoyed, the belated kickoff was of-course due to the hellish, hazardous hurricane’s lashing being ridden-out over the bulk of a weekend in Florida.

Stranger and stranger still goes the 2022 schedule, at least for a season without a worldwide pandemic in the headlines. For example, rather than the MAC launching the NCAA’s regular Wednesday action as usual, it will the powerful American Athletic Conference representatives UCF and Southern Methodist this Wednesday.

SMU’s kickoff against UCF is technically a Week 5 contest, however the hurricane break could allow Southern Methodist (+2.5) better chances in a game for which the heavy Over/Under line (63.5) belies Las Vegas’ tight point-spread number on the AAC tilt. Southern Methodist is dealing with 2 emotional defeats in a row, but what could be of more interest is that SMU is a highly-touted team which owns no quality wins as of yet. UCF has gone toe-to-toe with Louisville and Georgia Tech of the ACC and emerged 1-1, while whipping FAU 40-14 and SC State 56-10 in out-of-conference action.

Bettors who think a high-scoring game is probable could lean toward the UCF Knights against-the-spread, believing that a field-goal margin of a point spread is ridiculous when a game is expected to produce 7 points at a time and perhaps a statement win for whoever prevails in a shoot-out.

But the Central Florida moneyline (-154) is the best, if boring gambling move, given that UCF’s strongest weapon is its confidence and late-game mojo, compared to an SMU team that could hypothetically clam-up if attempting a field-goal from short range to win by a single point.

It’s a little bit like Jimmy Buffett sings in “Tryin’ to Reason With Hurricane Season.” Giving up 44 cents on a betting price for just 2-3 points on the scoreboard may seem quite insane, and it could hurt a brain. But it’ll keep the bookies from cleaning you out, so that you can “go onnnnnnnnn.”

WagerBop’s Pick: UCF (-154)

Colorado State Rams at Nevada Wolf Pack (Friday, October 7)

Friday’s prime-time slate brings another tightly-drawn handicap between AAC brands Memphis and Houston, while the San Jose State Spartans’ arrival as a late-night favorite could draw extra wagers to SJSU who’re glad to see another solid brand emerge from the Mountain West. But we’ve got our eye on a MWC meeting between Nevada (-3.5) which kicks-off simultaneously to the Spartans vs UNLV Rebels game.

Sin City predicted well in advance that the Nevada Wolf Pack would crumble against dynamic Air Force on September 23rd. Nevada hasn’t played a football game since getting soundly trounced by Troy Calhoun’s team in the 48-20 loss.

The team’s offense behind QB Nate Cox resembled a Friday Night Lights squad with a brave scrambling quarterback who doesn’t have enough of a supporting cast, or a quick enough 1st-step as a runner, to break a defense. Is Colorado State really meager enough to be a (+136) moneyline underdog against a host for whom every possession is a risky course of events?

Colorado State’s 0-4 record must be viewed in the context of a rough schedule. But the Friday odds also reflect emotion and momentum as much as any 1-on-1 match-up anticipated.

CSU is down to its backup QB after scoring almost no meaningful TDs over the first 4 weeks of the campaign, which gives the Rams little hope of rallying to a bowl-berth finish despite the 2022-23 season being so nascent.

Nevada’s offense is lively against vulnerable opponents, and in spite of the fortnight’s break for the Wolf Pack, 2-3 Nevada has played (and won) considerably more than CSU has in ’22.

WagerBop’s Pick: Nevada ATS (-3.5)

Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers (Saturday, October 8)

Sportsbooks have overvalued the point-scoring boost of occasional “sugar huddles” in setting a (58.5) Over/Under linr on Indiana vs Michigan this Saturday. It’s definite that the talented, highly-ranked Wolverines could see the Saturday “mismatch” as a get-well opportunity for at least 1 unit after the offense had such a tough plow in UM’s win over Iowa.

Curious, though, that some of the prevailing Michigan-at-Indiana betting markets don’t seem to quite fit in unison prior to the midday Big Ten scrum, with point-spread handicappers giving Michigan a gargantuan (-21.5) point edge, Over/Under sharks giving both offenses credit with bets on “Over” (58.5), and odds-to-win set with Indiana at shallower than 9-to-1, showing that someone out there thinks the underdog Hoosiers have a fighting chance to actually knock-off Michigan.

When an emotional host-underdog catches a “hung-over” conference favorite napping on a bright early occasion, the weaker team’s success is still probable to come via the path of least-resistance. For instance, an NFL defense from Houston or Atlanta might find ways to frustrate QB Cooper Rush as the Dallas Cowboys’ backup toils in Dak Prescott’s absence. Dallas tailback Ezekiel Elliott, alternatively, possesses the skill-set to run right through any unit regardless of the D’s motivation.

Not that Indiana is powerful enough to score 30+ points and beat Michigan if the ball doesn’t bounce funny. But we can expect some deflected-passes and loose-ball episodes early as Indiana’s defense works to prolong the inevitable. That’ll be followed by images of Jim Harbaugh squinting as Michigan runs steadily to protect a 17-point lead, not a visual that’s  associated with 60+ point scoring contests.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (58.5)

Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners (Saturday, October 8)

Billy Walters used a team of scouts, spies, and a state-of-the-art communication system to get subtle tips on football games. But then there are times when Walters’ air-traffic-control equipment wasn’t worth a red cent, since a mistaken line jumped right off the betting board at the sportsbook.

Oklahoma (+7.5), to wit, is more than a TD underdog in the 2022 Red River Showdown thanks to the school’s horrendous 2-3 start, which includes a rock-bottom 55-24 loss to Texas Christian. But giving more than 7 points to the traditional favorite (or the modern era’s favorite) in a fierce rivalry game is dodgy enough. In ’22, we’ll also bet a fried Milky Way bar that Texas’ growing pains on Saturdays are far from over.

Oklahoma’s loss to TCU may not be a hit-and-bounce-upward type of turning point the way that Norman’s poor debut once portended the rise of “Marvelous” Marcus Dupree and a seminal win over Texas in 1983. Once all’s said and done, though, TCU and Oklahoma’s jarring outcome may go in the “Ohio State vs Purdue” category of weird happenings.

Pick: Oklahoma ATS (+7.5)

Kent State Golden Flashes at Miami (OH) RedHawks (Saturday, October 8)

Week 6 is thin on Top 25 kickoffs in mid-afternoon, so we’ll run (or at least Generic Read-Option Carry) with a prediction on Saturday MAC-tion between the Miami RedHawks and visiting Kent State Golden Flashes, the latter a (-235) moneyline favorite after bothering Oklahoma for 3 quarters and scaring the Georgia Bulldogs.

WagerBop did not mean to denigrate the MAC when introducing Wednesday’s surprise chances to wager on other conferences in the FBS. Jokes aside, it’s refreshing to see leagues that were once laughingstocks, like the MAC, and its fellow Group-of-5 representative the Sun Belt, making a splash on the national stage in 2022-23, thanks to a combination of loyal “Super-Seniors” and transfer-portal standouts who’d prefer to start in the G5 than play 3rd-string in the Power-5. But when a whole regional brand is on the upswing, it’s a mistake to take only a single team’s feats seriously.

KSU’s overtime win over Ohio was emotionally a much better start to the Golden Flashes’ conference champion than Miami, already 0-1 in league play after losing to Buffalo in frustrating fashion, and yet RedHawks pigskin has been every bit as impressive as Kent State’s out-of-nowhere bid from a handicapper’s point-of-view.

QB Brett Gabbert’s stout underdogs began the season by matching Kentucky for 40 out of 60 minutes, and went ahead to take an early lead on 2021-22 CFP representative Cincinnati before losing a reasonably tight game. Miami’s done more than just hang around on the scoreboard, evidenced in Week 4’s exciting upset of Big Ten side Northwestern. Gabbert, however, has been on the shelf since sustaining an injury in the Kentucky loss, and the lack of murmurs about a potential heroic mid-season return makes WagerBop think there’s no chance we’ll see the Miami-of-OH star prior to the stretch run – if the RedHawks are lucky enough to make that happen.

Miami’s fill-in QB Aveon Smith may grow into a dynamite dual-threat QB after leading the way with 142 yards and 2 rushing TDs against Buffalo. But the RedHawks’ nifty Read-Option game may do little more than drain the game-clock and set up iffy field-goal attempts for the hosts.

That eventually could keep Miami “hanging around” again, but doesn’t explain why sportsbooks have handicapped O/U (56.5) on a fast-paced but physical contest. Both schools’ defenses have been hitting against granite so far too … with some exceptional progress-made right along with the QBs.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (56.5)

Washington State Cougars at USC Trojans (Saturday, October 8)

Pickings are slim on prime-time picks in the top-10 that aren’t wagers for the sake of wagers (take that, you “obligatory pick” Prisco-page handicappers, you), leading us to recommend “pass” on pretty much all of the SEC’s kickoffs among divisional contenders. Georgia, for instance, could be seen as an inflated 29-point favorite over Auburn following the Dawgs’ struggles to put-away KSU of the Mid-American Conference. Then again, Auburn recently met Missouri in a “first to lose” contest that has been going viral in highlight package (or lowlight-package) form for all the wrong reasons. The improving Missouri Tigers’ (+10.5) line at Florida could be fool’s gold given Mizzou’s fatigue in the 4th quarter against Georgia (speaking of growing pains on a Saturday), while a dull Texas A&M’s offense makes the Aggies’ prime-time bout with Alabama (-23.5) into a bad bet either way, just another guessing game of who will cover in trash-time.

USC  could be the exception as a (-12.5) point-spread pick against Washington State. Southern Cal’s lack of whitewash-style victories to date has concerned odds-makers who expected the unbeaten Trojans to be stomping average Pac-12 teams. But on the flip side, 5-0 is 5-0, and it’s a darn sight better than what USC’s been enduring.

Bookmakers could feel “drawn” (excuse the pun) to handicap Washington State within 2 touchdowns of the Trojans, given that the Cougars are 4-1, but the Pullman platoon has also benefited from a notably lucky schedule that’s included teams who were vulnerable due to the lineup, administrative upheaval, or both. Wisconsin is hitting a low-point in the Badgers’ cycle of success, for instance, and will move on with new coaches, which doesn’t make the Cougars’ nearly-scoreless 2nd half in WSU’s win over the Badgers any scarier to rivals.

WSU caught California on a bad offensive day, found Colorado State dealing with problems outlined in the MWC preview listed above, and caught the Oregon Ducks sleepwalking for 3 quarters during a game played in-between the Ducks’ dates vs UGA, BYU, and Stanford. That’s a drawn straight-flush.

USC may not yet be as unflinching as preseason handicappers had hoped for, but the Trojans also represent WSU’s first genuine test on the road, while being the most focused and buzzed-up contender the Cougars have seen yet in ’22.

WagerBop’s Pick: Southern Cal ATS (-12.5)