Handicapping Chicago in Week 6: Trubisky’s Success is Tim Tebow’s Last Laugh

Someday the NFL’s old guard will have to admit it. There is now more than one way for a quarterback to be successful in professional football.

Mitch Trubisky’s stat line from September 30th’s 48-10 Chicago Bears triumph over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had to look like a crazy fluke to the same NFL-only fans who thought Tim Tebow’s stats against the Pittsburgh Steelers were screw-ball, or that Cam Newton and Russell Wilson were 1-hit wonders as rookies.

To college-savvy spectators, Trubisky’s stats against the Buccaneers – 6 TD passes on just 26 attempts, the QB matching RB Tank Cohen with 53 rushing yards – looked ordinary. It would be more or less a typical day for an Urban Meyer QB…against Tulane.

In fact it was literally an Urban Meyer QB’s day against Tulane. In the Buckeyes’ 49-6 win over the Green Wave a few weeks ago, Meyer’s snap-taker Dwayne Haskins threw 5 touchdown passes on just 24 attempts. While Haskins’ 3 carries did not add up to much, backup QB Tate Martell attempted 8 rushes. And passed for 100+ yards.

Bettors are never certain what to do when they see NCAA-ball in the NFL. That has been proven time and again.

NFL odds-makers only gave the Bears a minor edge headed into this Sunday’s game at Miami. But the betting public likes Chicago (-3.5) enough to push the line above a field goal.

Colin Cowherd is right about the different mentalities of the Football Bowl Subdivision and the National Football League. NFL teams think that if they scientifically formulate a roster and a long-term plan, an competent passing QB who can stay healthy can lead them to the promised land over time. If he can run, great, but be sure not to encourage it too much.

College teams have to win right now, with whatever talent is on the field. NCAA signal-callers are taught the key to winning football games is gaining yards and scoring – by ground, air, hook or crook.

Tebow embodied the FBS mentality in the NFL. So did Colin Kaepernick. Both players were too grooved into the college style to conform to the scientific long-term plan. They wanted yards and would forfeit their bodies to get them, which has as much to do with why both are now out of the league as their politics.

Mitchell Trubisky is not electric-fast and does not have the greatest arm of all time. Many Chicago fans have rolled their eyes when he took off running or attempted a college-style option play against an NFC North rival. But the Bears’ coaching staff deserves a ton of credit. They allowed the UNC graduate to keep developing an approach that is comfortable to him – banging and crashing, flinging quick-outs and looking for the home run ball – even though some would much rather those tactics stay Saturday-only.

The Bears are 3-1 and in 1st place in the division. Against Tampa Bay, an 11-on-11 rushing attack spawned 4.5 yards a pop. When the Bucs put too many guys in the box or when CBs bit on play-action fakes, Trubisky passed over the top to Joshua Bellamy and Taylor Gabriel. That’s called a good old-fashioned butt kicking.

In case anyone took the wrong impression from my introduction, I am one of maybe 5% of Americans who think that Tim Tebow was neither the best nor the worst QB to ever play professional football, and is also neither the best nor worst baseball player in diamond history. I know…95% of whoever is reading this now thinks I am crazy, given that they are from 1 of the 2 camps.

But just as it was 7 years ago, Vegas is uncertain what to do about a moderate-speed QB who still finds a way to help his offense pound on the ground as well as through the air.

Pundits are not mistaken to tell Windy City fans to settle down, but that does not mean the Monsters of the Midway will not keep on winning. The Dolphins have lost 2 in a row after a hopeful start, and their most recent victory is a 28-20 win over the re-building Oakland Raiders. Miami is also coming off a total self-destruction in the 4th quarter of a demoralizing 27-17 loss to Cincinnati. The AFC is challenging, but it’s more challenging if you have to play against yourself.

I am liking Chicago to win by at least a touchdown. A QB adding to the power run game is still rare and taboo enough in the NFL that the benefits are undervalued.

Maybe Trubisky is a flash in the pan, perhaps he will get hurt running the ball or scrambling, like the skeptics hope for. But right now, he is hot, and so are the Bears. In a world of betting “trends” that is the most significant one you can go on.

A hot team against a cold team? I will take the snow-bred visitors in balmy Miami.