Here’s an Easy MLB System for Profits First Day After All-Star Break

Certain days in the sports year provide us diligent sports bettors with an abundance of lucrative plays. The first day of March Madness. The first week of the MLB season. The first round of the NBA playoffs.

An old Boyd’s Bets study from 2017 on post-ASB play caught my eye this week. Boyd breaks down the amazing betting opportunities present on the first day back from the MLB All-Star Break.

The issue – this article is from 2017 and uses the seasons 2005-2016 for its data. A lot has changed since 2016, folks. No biggie. We gotta bring out the big guns and do some research ourselves.

Which MLB Teams Should We Bet Post-All-Star Break?

Boyd poses 2 theories in his article. The first, home teams have a massive advantage immediately post-ASB. The second, bet unders. Boyd maintains the off time favors the arms of pitchers and impairs the hitters’ timing.

Solid hypotheses … but they are totally incorrect in today’s game (which is hereby anything after 2016).

We will not explore betting totals in this article, but just be aware that the “unders immediately after the break” system is not a proven winner.

Can We Trust MLB Home Teams After the All-Star Break?

Home teams have not been consistent winners on the moneyline in their first game back from the break. Here is a look at the last 10 seasons of data for home teams in their first game back.

Season	SU Record (%)	Avg ML	Profit ($)
2021	6-9 (40.0%)	-108	-$342
2020	–	–
2019	9-6	-136	$191
2018	5-10	-123	-$767
2017	7-8	-114	-$125
2016	7-8	-116	-$97
2015	12-3	-122	$856
2014	9-6	-134	$153
2013	8-7	-123	-$32
2012	8-7 (53.3%)	-123	$63
2011	7-8	-120	-$169
Total	78-72 (52.0%)	-122	-$269

No advantage here. We need to add some more filters into our system. Let’s see what happens if we sort by home favorites and home dogs.

Home Faves since 2011	60-34 (63.8%)	-148	$1,334
Home Dogs since 2011	17-31 (35.4%)	+126	-$968

Bingo! These are precisely the types of numbers we salivate over when we system hunt.

Let’s not let the dollar signs in our eyes cloud our judgment, though. We need to listen to the numbers and remain analytically minded.

Be aware that although home faves are way up on the day after the ASB over the past 10 seasons, a lot of those profits were accrued from 2014-2017. Here is a more thorough breakdown of home faves since 2011 in the first game back.

2011-2013	17-9 (65.4%)	-147	$447
2014-2017	28-13 (68.3%)	-141	$1,085
2018-present	15-12 (55.6%)	-159	-$198

See what I mean? This system was rip roarin’ when Boyd originally penned that article but the books have since wised up. I’ll not be betting home favorites this year as the well has dried up.

Don’t forget about those home dogs, though. Remember how they’ve performed terribly over the past 10 seasons? That’s our meal ticket. Don’t side with them, obviously. Fade them.

Betting MLB Road Favorites in Their First Game Back is a Profitable Play

Fading home dogs means we want to be betting road favorites in the first game post-ASB. No matter how you slice it, this system makes money.

Past 5 years? It’s up $$778. Past 15 years? Try $1,573.

This system has produced just 3 losing seasons in the past 15 years, and 2 of those were losses of less than 1 unit! That’s as good as it gets in this industry.

Which MLB Moneylines Should I Bet This Weekend?

The only road favorite in play on Thursday are the Tigers (-140) in Game 1 of their doubleheader in Oakland. Tarik Skubal (Detroit’s best pitcher) takes the mound against A’s rookie Zach Logue.

On Friday, look for the Cardinals on the road in Cincinnati, the Guardians on the road in Chicago (assuming Bieber starts, Cleveland should be favored), Tampa on the road in KC, and Houston on the road in Seattle (assuming Verlander makes the start … yes, even with Seattle’s streak).