Ultimate 2022 NBA Playoffs Betting Guide

1,230 regular season games – 51 decided in overtime, 5 in double-OT, 2 in triple-OT.

That’s 59,375 minutes of NBA action spread across the 6 months of the 2021-22 season. Luckily, you soaked in every moment and are now capable of making perfectly-informed NBA playoffs picks, right?

Yeah, we didn’t think so.

No one has the time to watch over 50,000 minutes of basketball and even if you did – the NBA playoffs are a different beast. Conventional basketball betting wisdom goes out the window.

This is Wagerbop’s annual NBA Playoffs Betting Guide – the most comprehensive NBA Playoffs betting guide on the internet. You, my friend, are receiving this gem for free! 

The information contained in this guide cannot be found in one place anywhere else. Wagerbop is very keen on finding current profitable betting trends and passing them on to you – our loyal readers. Be sure to check out our complete collection of NBA betting systems for even more bookie-beating content.

Where do we get our stats? FiveThirtyEight is an awesome source for data of all kinds – sports and otherwise. Stathead is a well-known and highly-trusted tool in the world of sports for digging up detailed team and player query info. Killersports‘ SDQL and trend tools make sports betting research a breeze. TeamRankings is also a spectacular site for team stats and betting trends.

NBA Playoffs: Home Teams ATS and SU

A common question about the NBA Playoffs is whether a strong home-court advantage exists.

We pulled 10 postseasons worth of data to analyze this question. Note that the 2019-20 postseason is omitted as this was the COVID bubble year and all games were played at neutral sites.

Year	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2020-21	52.7%	53.9%	-2.6
2019-20	–	–	–
2018-19	51.9%	55.1%	-3.7
2017-18	56.2%	63.0%	-4.0
2016-17	55.7%	61.5%	-3.5
2015-16	59.3%	64.7%	-3.7
2014-15	46.9%	57.3%	-3.5
2013-14	44.8%	57.5%	-3.7
2012-13	43.5%	55.3%	-3.9
2011-12	56.0%	66.7%	-3.9
Total	51.9%	59.4%	-3.6

Blindly betting home teams in the NBA playoffs is a no-go. Some years they are slightly profitable – others not. Overall, that ATS win rate of 51.9% falls short of the magic 52.4% break-even point for spread bets.

The formula in that linked article can be used to determine the percentage a team needs to win SU to break-even with a -3.6 average line. It’s about 63.2%. This means moneyline bettors would also be losing money if they blindly took the home team each playoff game.

A 51.9% win rate ATS puts us in no man’s land – an area in which neither side is profitable to bet thanks to the bookie juice. Road teams are winning ATS at a 48.1% clip – also a losing mark.

There is no advantage to be held from betting solely based on the location of the game. We need to continue digging. Let’s see if certain teams over perform at home.

NBA Playoffs: Team-by-Team Records

Home Records

Some NBA arenas might as well be fortresses. Road game in Boston? Bring earplugs. Need to win Game 7 in Golden State? Good luck.

Here is a look at who has held down home court since the 2012 Playoffs – sorted by amount of home playoff games.

Team	# of Games	SU Record (%)	ATS Record (%)
Warriors	66	47-17 (73.4%)	34-31-1 (52.3%)
Spurs	51	33-18 (64.7%)	28-23 (54.9%)
Heat	47	26-21 (55.3%)	21-26 (44.7%)
Celtics	46	26-19 (57.8%)	22-24 (47.8%)
Clippers	42	27-14 (65.9%)	26-16 (61.9%)
Raptors	40	24-13 (64.9%)	23-16-1 (59.0%)
Cavaliers	39	30-8 (78.9%)	26-13 (66.7%)
Bucks	30	16-14 (53.3%)	15-14-1 (51.7%)
Grizzlies	28	11-15 (42.3%)	12-16 (42.9%)
Sixers	24	15-9 (62.5%)	14-10 (58.3%)
Nets	21	13-8 (61.9%)	10-11 (47.6%)
Bulls	20	4-16 (20.0%)	5-15 (25.0%)
Jazz	20	10-10 (50.0%)	10-10 (50.0%)
Nuggets	19	11-8 (57.9%)	10-9 (52.6%)
Mavericks	12	6-6 (50.0%)	7-5 (58.3%)
Suns	11	5-5 (50.0%)	5-6 (45.5%)
Pelicans	8	5-3 (62.5%)	5-3 (62.5%)
T-Wolves	2	1-1 (50.0%)	2-0 (100%)

Of note here is that the Warriors and Cavaliers both win an exceptional amount of playoff games at home. This is to be expected, however, as Cleveland enjoyed the LeBron James era while the Warriors had the prime splash brothers.

The most surprising team on this list is the Los Angeles Clippers. For a team void of any rings in this 10-year span, the Clippers are killing it at the Staples Center – winning 61.9% of their games ATS.

So many of the NBA’s elite teams get overvalued at home during the playoffs. The Warriors, Suns, Nets, Bucks, and Grizzlies all possess losing ATS win rates over the past 10 postseasons.

They still win games, sure, but they don’t cover many spreads. Look for value against an overvalued, hyped NBA franchise playing at home.

Road Games

It is also important to know which teams excel at playing away from home. Here are the numbers over the past 10 postseasons for those same teams when they are forced to travel.

Team	# of Games	SU Record (%)	ATS Record (%)
Warriors	60	31-25 (55.4%)	32-28 (53.3%)
Spurs	53	29-22 (56.9%)	30-23 (56.6%)
Heat	42	15-27 (35.7%)	17-24-1 (41.5%)
Celtics	42	13-28 (31.7%)	19-23 (45.2%)
Cavaliers	42	19-23 (45.2%)	19-22-1 (46.3%)
Clippers	40	15-24 (38.5%)	17-22-1 (43.6%)
Raptors	35	12-22 (35.3%)	12-23 (34.3%)
Bucks	31	11-19 (36.7%)	12-18-1 (40.0%)
Grizzlies	29	13-16 (44.8%)	18-11 (62.1%)
Sixers	23	9-14 (39.1%)	9-13-1 (40.9%)
Jazz	22	6-16 (27.3%)	10-12 (45.5%)
Nets	21	7-14 (33.3%)	8-13 (38.1%)
Bulls	21	5-16 (23.8%)	9-11-1 (45.0%)
Nuggets	18	9-9 (50.0%)	10-8 (55.6%)
Mavericks	16	5-10 (33.3%)	10-6 (62.5%)
Suns	11	3-8 (27.3%)	3-8 (27.3%)
Pelicans	9	2-7 (22.2%)	5-4 (55.6%)
T-Wolves	3	0-3 (0%)	1-2 (33.3%)

The Warriors are just otherworldly. Winning 55% of your road playoff games makes you practically invincible in a best-of-7 format. Jump on it if you can ever get + odds on Golden State in the playoffs.

The Suns stink on the road. Their SU and ATS win rates are both 27.3%. Phoenix can win in the Valley but have trouble packing up their game and bringing it on the road with them.

The San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies, and Dallas Mavericks are the best ATS road teams over the past 10 postseasons. The Heat, Celtics, Raptors, Bucks, Nets, and Suns have all struggled mightily ATS away from home.

Teams are built differently … duh! There is no one-size-fits-all approach to NBA playoffs betting. Look to fade overvalued fan favorites at home while pouncing on soft lines of non-traditional teams who excel at pulling road upsets.

NBA Playoffs: Favorites ATS and SU

The next logical step in our trend hunting is to see if either favorites or dogs win more frequently than they should in the NBA playoffs.

Below is a chart showing how favored teams have fared in each NBA postseason since 2011-12.

Year	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2020-21	60.2%	67.4%	-4.7
2019-20	49.4%	62.2%	-6.1
2018-19	53.8%	67.1%	-5.9
2017-18	61.2%	76.2%	-6.0
2016-17	58.2%	77.2%	-6.4
2015-16	60.0%	74.1%	-6.5
2014-15	46.2%	63.8%	-5.8
2013-14	42.4%	56.3%	-5.0
2012-13	53.8%	69.1%	-5.8
2011-12	61.0%	79.5%	-5.4
Total	54.7%	69.2%	-5.7

Pretty solid winrate here for favored teams. Favorites are profitable ATS in 7 of the past 10 postseasons and 54.7% overall in that span.

While the big boys (Warriors, Suns, Nets) struggle ATS at home – the rest of the favorites pick up the slack.

Home Favorites

Here are the numbers that home favorites have put up since the 2012 playoffs.

Year	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2020-21	58.5%	68.2%	-5.0
2019-20	46.5%	60.0%	-6.1
2018-19	52.3%	64.6%	-5.9
2017-18	60.7%	80.3%	-6.6
2016-17	47.4%	73.7%	-6.9
2015-16	63.9%	78.7%	-7.1
2014-15	44.6%	66.7%	-6.5
2013-14	42.6%	58.8%	-5.6
2012-13	52.4%	71.9%	-6.2
2011-12	61.2%	79.1%	-5.8
Total	53.3%	70.4%	-6.1

Not bad, not bad. Here is where we can use some common sense: favorites overall are 54.7% winners. Home favorites are 53.3% winners. What does this mean about road favorites?

Road favorites are big winners in the NBA playoffs! Just as big home favorites tend to be overvalued – people sleep on the road team, even if they are good. Don’t be bashful. Throw a few units down on a solid road favorite – say in Game 3 or 4 of a series.

Home Dogs

Although the sample size is much smaller, here are stats for home underdogs from the past 10 postseasons. Take a look.

Year	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2020-21	34.8%	34.8%	3.9
2019-20	47.2%	35.1%	6.0
2018-19	38.5%	21.4%	5.6
2017-18	36.8%	36.8%	4.1
2016-17	13.6%	13.6%	5.3
2015-16	50.0%	37.5%	4.9
2014-15	50.0%	43.5%	4.0
2013-14	58.8%	52.6%	2.8
2012-13	41.2%	41.2%	4.1
2011-12	40.0%	18.8%	3.8
Total	41.3%	34.1%	4.6

41.3% is a terrible win rate. We knew home dogs were going to be bad, however, because we already determined that road favorites are +EV in the NBA playoffs.

NBA Playoffs: Over/Under (Totals)

Of course, the point spreads and moneylines are not the only bets available to playoff basketball lovers. Totals provide the same level of excitement and upside with the added bonus that you do not have to worry about trivialities like who wins the game.

Totals are binary. There are two outcomes – over or under. Here is a glimpse into the past 10 seasons of NBA Playoffs totals.

Year	Over %	Under %
2020-21	51.1%	48.9%
2019-20	45.6%	54.4%
2018-19	45.6%	54.4%
2017-18	43.6%	56.4%
2016-17	61.0%	39.0%
2015-16	38.1%	61.2%
2014-15	44.3%	55.7%
2013-14	57.0%	63.0%
2012-13	48.8%	51.2%
2011-12	50.0%	50.0%
Total	48.5%	51.5%

Hmm, worth a try. Blind overs and unders aren’t the way to go, however.

NBA Playoffs: Coach by Coach Records

Don’t give up. Don’t ever give up. – Jim “Jimmy V” Valvano

Some coaches just know how to get wins in crunch time. Others constantly put their players in sub-optimal positions – costing them playoff Ws.

Here is what the remaining coaches have accomplished throughout their entire postseason coaching careers, including the NBA Finals – ranked by number of championship rings.

Coach	Team	Rings	SU Record (%)	ATS Record (%)
Popovich	Spurs	5	170-114 (59.9%)	156-128 (54.9%)
Kerr	Warriors	3	77-28 (73.3%)	58-47 (55.2%)
Spoelstra	Heat	2	85-58 (59.4%)	79-62-2 (56.0%)
Nurse	Raptors	1	23-12 (65.7%)	19-15-1 (55.9%)
Lue	Clippers	1	51-29 (63.8%)	42-37-1 (52.5%)
Budenholzer	Bucks	1	48-39 (55.2%)	44-42-1 (51.7%)
Rivers	Sixers	1	98-94 (51.0%)	93-97-1 (48.9%)
Nash	Nets	0	7-5 (58.3%)	8-4 (66.7%)
Williams	Suns	0	16-16 (50.0%)	18-14 (56.3%)
Malone	Nuggets	0	20-23 (46.5%)	23-19-1 (54.8%)
Kidd	Mavericks	0	13-15 (46.4%)	12-16 (42.9%)
Donovan	Bulls	0	18-23 (43.9%)	21-20 (51.2%)
Snyder	Jazz	0	19-26 (42.2%)	21-24 (46.7%)
Bickerstaff	Cavaliers	0	1-4 (20.0%)	2-3 (40.0%)
Jenkins	Grizzlies	0	1-4 (20.0%)	1-4 (20.0%)
Udoka	Celtics	0	—	—
Green	Pelicans	0	—	—
Finch	T-Wolves	0	—	—

We have 3 playoff virgins on the sidelines this year – Boston’s Ime Udoka, Orlean’s Willie Green, and Minnesota’s Chris Finch.

While inexperience in basketball’s postseason is not a kiss of death as it is in football, you don’t want to bet the farm on a newbie.

Golden State’s Steve Kerr is a proven winner, as is Toronto’s Nick Nurse and Miami’s Erik Spoelstra.

Winning coaches like Mike Budenholzer and Doc Rivers are losing bets ATS in the playoffs over their careers.

Beware of Utah’s Quin Synder who is yet to figure out postseason ball and is a big loser both SU and ATS.

NBA Playoffs: Seed-by-Seed

Some very interesting trends emerge when you break down win rates over the past 10 postseasons based on a team’s seeding. This is when we really make those bookies pay for their inaccuracies. This is our meat and potatoes right here!

Game Records by Seed

This first chart simply lists the ATS and SU records for each seed going back to 2012.

Seed	# of Games	ATS Record (%)	SU Record (%)
1	317	165-148-4 (52.7%)	205-112 (64.7%)
2	342	190-152-4 (55.5%)	217-129 (62.7%)
3	258	132-124-2 (51.6%)	133-125 (51.6%)
4	190	82-106-2 (43.6%)	85-105 (44.7%)
5	195	105-87-3 (54.7%)	89-106 (45.6%)
6	130	60-70-1 (46.2%)	45-85 (34.6%)
7	103	37-67-3 (35.6%)	27-80 (25.2%)
8	115	49-63-3 (43.8%)	32-83 (27.8%)

Backing up our previous findings, favored teams (1 and 2 seeds) perform exceptionally well in the NBA postseason – SU, of course, but also ATS.

5 seeds are the hidden gems of the NBA postseason – consistently outperforming expectations.

Series Records by Seed

Of course, betting individual games isn’t the only way to make a buck. Betting series is a very popular way to buy some exposure to a team while shielding yourself from the variability of single-game betting.

Here are each seed’s series records since 2012.

Seed	# of Series	Series Record (%)
1	59	46-13 (78.0%)
2	61	45-16 (73.8%)
3	44	25-19 (62.5%)
4	32	12-20 (37.5%)
5	36	16-20 (44.4%)
6	23	3-20 (13.0%)
7	20	0-20 (0%)
8	21	1-20 (4.8%)

5 seeds are once again little gold mines here. Never place your trust in 4 seeds – they let you down.

7 and 8 seeds are the epitome of a longshot bet – winning just 1 series combined in their last 41. The only low seed to win a playoff series in the past 10 years was in the 2012 playoffs when the 8-seed 76ers beat the 1-seed Bulls in 6 games.

It appears that betting by seed, while giving some preference to home teams and favorites is the way to go in the modern NBA playoffs.

We are about to begin a journey. This is the real NBA season. We could be witnessing as many as 105 pressure-packed battles, 60 elimination games, and 15 game 7’s.

Buckle up, boppers. See you at the top!