Inept Todd Bowles Will Lose Toilet Bowl Rematch

The New York Jets. 3-9 on the season and losers of 6 straight.

The Buffalo Bills. 4-8 on the season and losers of 4 of their last 6.

The Raiders-49ers game from November was the real toilet bowl, but those teams have storied histories and high expectations. Bills-Jets, on the other hand, is a perennial trainwreck of mediocre talent that blemishes the NFL schedule twice a year.

Neither team will be playing in the postseason (surprise surprise) so picking a winner will be a lot like picking which horse will finish 6th in the Kentucky Derby … who cares?

The beauty of sports betting is that it takes meaningless matchups and forces us to choose sides, making them meaningful. I believe there is a clear edge in this game. I am picking the Bills to win and cover the 3.5-point spread. If you want to make this game interesting for yourself, listen to my case and then decide whether betting the Bills is right for you.

Todd Bowles is a Rah-Rah Coach

There are three types of NFL head coaches: Xs and Os guys (good gameplanners), rah-rah guys (good motivators), and the elite cadre of coaches good at both (the Bill Belichiks of the world).

Todd Bowles is definitely a a rah-rah guy. These coaches get their names because they can yell at their players to motivate them for short-term success. Once that rah-rah wears off, they begin to struggle. Classic signs a coach is a rah-rah coach: his team is very inconsistent, his team cannot handle the opponents’ adjustments, his team makes crucial mistakes at key times.

Let’s go down the list. First, we are looking for inconsistency. Here is a quick glance at the scores and key offensive stats for the Jets this season.

Week	Opponent	NYJ Score	Opp Score	Rushing Yds	Pass Yds
1	@ DET	48	17	169	180
2	vs MIA	12	20	42	320
3	@ CLE	17	21	107	161
4	@ JAX	12	31	34	144
5	vs DEN	34	16	323	189
6	vs IND	42	34	107	267
7	vs MIN	17	37	71	192
8	@ CHI	10	24	57	150
9	@ MIA	6	13	80	202
10	vs BUF	10	41	83	116
11	BYE	—	—	—	—
12	vs NE	13	27	74	264
13	@ TEN	22	26	156	124
14	@ BUF	??	??	??	??
	Average	20.3	25.6	108.6	192.4

We got numbers all over the place here. The Jets have scored as many as 48 points but as few as 6. Sometimes they rush the ball at an elite clip and other times they are held to embarrassingly low totals.

Inconsistent? Check.

Have teams adjusted to the Jets and Coach Bowles’ system? You betcha. The team started 3-3. Not bad, right? 6 straight losses have made that start a distant memory. 2018 is almost certainly Bowles’ final year in NY because of it.

Cannot handle adjustments? Check.

What about big mistakes in big moments? Are the Jets guilty of that? They sure are! Last week, Bowles’ squad floundered a 13-point second-half lead in Nashville. Titans QB Marcus Mariota led a penalty-aided game-winning touchdown drive late in the 4th quarter to win the game.

Todd Bowles’ team, “always commit[s] penalties on third down or in key points,” says Brian Costello of the NY Post. These mistakes reared their ugly head down the stretch in Nashville as New York committed 11 penalties total in the game, 3 on Mariota’s final drive.

Bowles was understandably upset after the game. His players defended him, but the blame cannot be put anywhere but the man in charge on the sidelines. Todd Bowles is 100% responsible for his team’s mental mistakes because he does not coach situational football well enough. He is a rah-rah guy, and his window during which players respond to his motivation has run out.

Crucial mistakes? Check. Also, coaches who are not rah-rah guys don’t do this:

VIDEO: Jets coach Todd Bowles excited!!! reaction to a question about by the play of first round QB pick Sam Darnold during today’s practice. @andy_vasquez @StevePopper #NYJETS @TheRecordSports @northjersey pic.twitter.com/t2e15mDNX4

— Chris Pedota (@bedjack) May 4, 2018

Final Verdict

The proof is in the pudding. Bowles may have been a decent coach once-upon-a-time, but that time is not now. He has apparently lost control of the team, as players have hinted that there are behind-the-scenes issues in the Jets franchise.

New York has not won the second-leg of back-to-back road games since December 14, 2014. It is hard enough to motivate your guys to 1 road win. The well is typically dry for that second one. That is the task Bowles is faced with here; to rebound from a tough road loss and stay competitive in a divisional game in your second straight week on the road.

I did not even touch on the matchups in this game because I feel so confident betting against Todd Bowles right now. The Bills won by 31 points last meeting and have been playing better football lately. The Jets are mired in a 6-game slump.

Jets +3.5 (-120)

Bills -3.5 (EVEN)

Take the Bills all day. You better not be scared off by the extra half-point.