Is the NBA Playoffs Zig Zag Theory Legit or BS?

The Jazz defeated the Dallas Mavericks in the first conference quarterfinal game of the 2022 NBA Playoffs – signaling the start of the cat-and-mouse game between bookies and bettors as we react to each outcome.

Wagerbop is rife with NBA playoffs pieces this week – with myself and Nikola giving our takes on the postseason basketball betting landscape.

Home favorites, large dogs, small dogs, 2-7 matchups, 1-8 matchups, NBA Finals futures! There is so much going on – what if it could all be simpler?

For the past decade, the famous (or perhaps infamous) “Zig Zag Theory” has been oft-mentioned by pundits and recreational bloggers alike as the end-all system to NBA betting.

At its core, the Zig Zag Theory says to bet on the spread whichever team lost SU last game in a playoffs series.

The rationale is that professional sports are so competitive that there are fewer runaway series than you would think. Betting on the losing team to come back and play well the next time out used to be profitable … keywords “used to”.

If the traditional Zig Zag isn’t profitable anymore, is there a variant that we can rely on? Short answer – yes, but if it was easy money it’d be in our Ultimate NBA Playoffs Betting Guide.

The bookies have adjusted so we must as well. Here are simple ways to attempt to gain an edge on the books in lieu of the traditional Zig Zag.

Home Favorites, Home Favorites, Home Favorites

Hopefully you’ve had a chance to check out our Ultimate NBA Playoffs Betting Guide. You should know that favorites are winning at a decent rate ATS over the past 10 postseasons.

Road favorites are really where the money is right now, but home favorites can be extremely profitable under certain circumstances.

For a number of years, betting home favorites off a SU and ATS loss was like holding a one-way ticket to Cash City. The well has dried up … or more accurately the big-rig bookies have come in and sealed up our well.

Season	ATS (%)	Profit ($100/game)
2020-21	14-15 (48.3%)	-$250
2019-20	–	–
2018-19	13-11 (54.2%)	$90
2017-18	16-10 (61.5%)	$500
2016-17	8-11 (42.1%)	-$410
2015-16	15-9 (62.5%)	$510
2014-15	7-8 (46.7%)	-$180
2013-14	14-18 (43.8%)	-$580
2012-13	16-9 (64.0%)	$610
2011-12	13-7 (65.0%)	$530
Total	118-98 (54.6%)	$820

The overall results are there but bear in mind that a bulk of the profits come from the 2012 and 2013 playoffs. Since the 2014 playoffs – this system has lost $320.

Narrowing Our Criteria Even More Boosts ROI

If we narrow down our search, we can find more profitable spots for home favorites. Sure, narrowing the search diminishes our playable opportunities but it improves our winrate.

Rather than looking at every home favorite under the sun, look only at the top seeded teams (1-3).

Rather than looking at every single game – look just at Game 2s. Yes, just Game 2s. Home favorites who lost both SU and ATS in Game 1 are money their next time out.

How money? Very money!

In the same 10-year span, these particular home faves have won ATS at a whopping 65% clip – good for an ROI of 24.1%.

Keep your ear to the ground for more hot NBA playoffs betting tips, boppers!