The 2022 MLB season is over 80% completed. I’m very impatient and wrote my first MLB playoff picture piece way back on June 13, but this one is far more appropriate being that it’s already September.
The 162-game regular season grind is baseball’s calling card but the postseason is what sports are all about. If you aren’t thinking about postseason implications while advancing through the regular season, you aren’t getting the full experience.
Here’s the MLB postseason format for 2022:
MLB 2022 12-Team Postseason Format
12 teams make the playoffs – 6 from each league. The 3 division winners in each league will receive seeds 1, 2, and 3 according to record. Seeds 4, 5, and 6 will then be occupied by Wild Cards – even if the record of the Wild Card trumps that of a division winner.
Unlike the NBA in which a Wild Card team could occupy the 2 seed, the MLB elects to reserve the top seeds for its division winners.
No longer do we have the 1-game Wild Card play in. As fun as that was, the MLB has opted to go with a couple of best-of-3 series in each league for the Wild Card Round.
The new MLB bracket template looks like this:
The 3-seed will host the 6 in a best-of-3. The 4-seed will host the 5. This is the Wild Card Round.
The winners of these series go on to meet the top 2 seeds who are awaiting them in the Divisional Round – after being given byes in the WC Round.
Unlike the NFL playoffs, there is no reseeding after the 1st round. The 3-6 winner will always face the 2 seed. Likewise, the 4-5 winner will always face the 1 seed.
This system grants the 1-seed an easier path as they are guaranteed to never face another division winner in the Divisional Round.
Once past the initial 3-game series of the Wild Card round, all series are the classic best-of-7 format.
Where Did We Pull the Data for this Article?
To help lend quantitative predictive data, I cite FiveThirtyEight often. Their MLB Prediction tools are fun to play around with and extremely insightful. FiveThirtyEight has a simulation feature which runs the end of the season 100,000 times and gives the percentages that a given team makes the playoffs, wins their division, or wins the World Series.
Team statistics for all 30 MLB teams can be found on either TeamRankings, ESPN, or Fangraphs. This makes it extremely easy to find which teams are the best in batting average, ERA, runs per game, caught stealing percentage, outfield assists, or suicide squeeze attempts.
Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason baseball – including current record, remaining strength of schedule, health of star players, and strength of division. All 30 MLB teams are still mathematically alive with 30 games to go. Let’s get started, boppers!
American League
Here is the American League postseason bracket if the season ended today – September 6th:
A midseason push was made by Baltimore to upset the balance of power in the American League but that effort has fizzled out.
It is looking more and more like the teams in the top 6 of the league today will remain there come September’s end.
Here’s a quick look at the Wild Card standings in the AL and which teams have a shot at a September takeover:
American League Division and Wild Card Races
AL East
In June, the Yankees were on pace to surpass Seattle’s 117-win total set in 2001. An awful month of August snapped New York back to reality. A division race is now afoot.
Tampa is within 5 games of the Pinstripers after taking 2 of 3 from New York over the weekend. These teams play again in the Bronx this weekend (Fri, Sat, Sun).
This New York slow down also breathes life into Toronto’s division hopes – bringing the Jays to within 5.5 games of the top. Division odds on Bovada have New York at (-1000) with Tampa and Toronto both at (+1000).
Of course, Aaron Judge and his 54 bombs are the talk of the Bronx. The entire Detroit Tigers team has combined for 80 home runs this year. Judge (54) and Anthony Rizzo (30) alone top the entire state of Michigan.
The Baltimore Orioles peaked in July with a 10-game win streak which pulled them into playoff contention. The O’s might have had it if the season were 2.5 months shorter but time has proven Baltimore is a piece or two short.
The O’s haven’t made the playoffs since 2014. They got our hopes up this year, but Orioles players will watch the playoffs from the couch for the 8th season in a row.
All hope is not lost for Baltimore but they better get going. With 27 games remaining, the O’s sit 4.5 games back of a Wild Card berth.
The Boston Red Sox – the East’s #2 team through the early portion of the summer – are now the cellar dwellers at 67-69.
My friend – an extremely casual Red Sox fan – asked me the other day how the Sox were doing. I had to break it to her they were in last place. Even behind Baltimore? Yep.
The last full season a team other than Baltimore finished last in the East was Tampa in 2016. The last full season Boston finished last was 2015 with a record of 78-84.
AL Central
For all the crap the American League Central receives for housing such poor talent, this division is providing us the only 3-team race in baseball.
The White Sox are the best team in the Central … on paper. It was their division to win in March. The Sox were supposed to be a team cruising to an early September clinch and getting their pitching staff healthy and lined up for the playoffs.
Instead, this is a team struggling with getting over .500 who now looks ahead at 2 different teams they must surpass in the final month.
The Guardians, White Sox and Twins play each other multiple times down the stretch. Cleveland possesses winning records against each opponent this season – a large part of why Bovada has the Guardians as division faves at (+125).
The next-most likely Central winner is Minnesota at (+180) followed by Chicago at (+230). All 3 teams are within 2 games in the standings as of September 6th.
Whichever team wins the Central will surely be the lowest-seeded AL division winner – meaning they’ll get home-field advantage in their best-of-3 Wild Card series but will have to travel for the Divisional Round.
It is not a statistical certainty, but the 1 and 2 seeds in the American League are statistically certainly going to be the Houston Astros and New York Yankees.
The Astros are peeking right now and while the Yankees are in a big slump it is never easy to go into the Bronx and win 4 games.
AL West
Save for the weird COVID year, the Houston Astros have won the AL West each of the past 4 seasons. This run has led to 3 pennants and a World Series victory in 2017 over the Dodgers.
The ‘Stros have a firm grip on the West this year, as well, leading the field by an average of 26 games. Seattle is 76-59 with a greater than 99% chance of reaching the postseason. The Mariners are a good ballclub and yet they trail Houston by 11 games. It’s not even close.
The 2022 season outlook for the Angels and Rangers both looked very promising, but this year has proven to be more of the same – head-scratching losses by teams too talented to not make the playoffs.
We’ll give the new-look Rangers a pass, but c’mon Angels! What are you doing?! Squandering talent, that’s what.
Houston was neck-and-neck with New York for best record in the American League at mid-season but shot past the Yankees when the Pinstripers stunk it up in August. With a 6-game lead on the 1 seed and no signs of slowing down, the path to the World Series in the American League will go through Houston in 2022.
American League Playoff and World Series Equities
AL East
New York Yankees 81-54
538 Playoff%: >99%
538 Division Title%: 91%
538 Championship%: 11%. This is the 2nd-highest World Series equity in the American League behind Houston. The Yankees were the most likely team to win a championship in May/June but have regressed in July/August.
Tampa Bay Rays 75-58 (5 GB)
538 Playoff%: 93%. Tampa is nearly guaranteed of reaching the postseason with a Wild Card berth – having only to fend off the fading-fast Baltimore Orioles.
538 Division Title%: 4%
538 Championship%: 4%
Toronto Blue Jays 75-59 (5.5 GB)
538 Playoff%: 92%
538 Division Title%: 5%
538 Championship%: 4%
Baltimore Orioles 71-64 (10 GB)
538 Playoff%: 11%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Boston Red Sox 67-69 (14.5 GB)
538 Playoff%: <1%. 2022 will probably be the 3rd year out of 4 without playoff baseball in Boston. This is on the heels of 3-straight playoff seasons from 2016-18 culminating in a World Series win over LA.
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
AL Central
Cleveland Guardians 68-64
538 Playoff%: 52%
538 Division Title%: 50%. The Guardians hold a slim half-game lead over Minnesota and a 2-game lead over Chicago in the Central. Cleveland are the favorites to win the division.
538 Championship%: <1%
Minnesota Twins 68-65 (0.5 GB)
538 Playoff%: 33%
538 Division Title%: 32%
538 Championship%: <1%
Chicago White Sox 67-67 (2 GB)
538 Playoff%: 19%
538 Division Title%: 18%
538 Championship%: <1%
Kansas City Royals 55-80 (14.5 GB)
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Detroit Tigers 51-83 (18 GB)
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
AL West
Houston Astros 86-48
538 Playoff%: >99%
538 Division Title%: >99%
538 Championship%: 13%
Seattle Mariners 76-58 (10 GB)
538 Playoff%: >99%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: 3%
Texas Rangers 58-75 (27.5 GB)
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Los Angeles Angels 58-76 (28 GB)
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Oakland Athletics 50-85 (36.5 GB)
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: Eliminated. The A’s are one of 5 teams in baseball eliminated from division contention. All 30 teams still have a mathematical chance at a Wild Card berth.
538 Championship%: <1%
National League
Here is the National League postseason bracket if the season ended today – September 6th:
Next, a glance at the NL Wild Card battle and which teams can pull off the ole’ September comeback:
National League Division and Wild Card Races
NL East
With the rest of the division choking on dust, the Braves-Mets race is the marquee showdown of the summer.
The Mets have managed to outplay not only Atlanta but also their intracity counterparts – owning a better record and receiving shorter World Series odds than the Yankees on Bovada.
The Braves are … well, the Braves. The reigning 2021 champs are following the mold of last season – coming on strong in the second half to gain on a Mets team that has to hate the feeling of looking over their shoulder at this point.
Last year, the Braves gained 10 games on New York in August – morphing a 5-game deficit into a 5-game advantage in the standings.
Atlanta also gained on the Mets this August but not enough to fully catch them. The margin stands at 1 game today on September 6th.
Whichever team loses the division race in the East is nearly guaranteed a Wild Card berth. The Atlanta Braves are the WC leader in the National League with a 10.5-game lead over the next-closest team.
Just because a postseason berth is imminent doesn’t mean either team is going to lighten up down the stretch. The new 12-team MLB postseason format places the utmost importance on winning your division – rewarding 1st-place teams with a plethora of advantages (especially the 1 and 2 seeds).
Neither of these teams are going to catch the Dodgers for the NL’s 1 seed, but sliding into October as the second-best team in the National League seems a very likely scenario as St Louis is struggling to keep pace.
Snagging the 2 seed means a first-round bye, home-field advantage in the Divisional Round and even a shot at home-field advantage in the NLCS should the Dodgers be knocked off.
Bovada gives the Mets the nod in the East, with New York receiving division odds of (-275) to Atlanta’s (+200).
It doesn’t seem a 1-game advantage should warrant such heavy favoritism. There must be something else going on behind the scenes.
Turns out this is no normal September for the Mets. This is a dream September!
The Mets have already completed the toughest part of their schedule – leaving them only 2 series against winning teams over their final 27 games.
Statistically, New York has the easiest remaining schedule of any team in baseball. This matters too much to ignore.
The easiest way to catch a team in the standings is beating them head to head. New York and Atlanta play just one more time this season.
The remainder of the Mets games are against soft opponents. New York figures to continue playing better than .600 baseball in the month of September and put a lot of pressure on Atlanta for the Eastern division crown.
NL Central
The Cardinals flipped a switch once it got hot out and usurped the Brewers’ role as commander of the National League Central division.
The Brewers have won the Central in 2 of the last 3 full seasons and were favorites to do so again in 2022.
Things were going according to script when Milwaukee took a large division lead into June. It was right about this time when a Milwaukee cold snap perfectly coincided with a Cardinals hot streak. Voila! The lead was gone.
The two clubs played footsie for a couple weeks before St Louis decided enough was enough and stormed ahead. Today, the Dirty Birds lead by 7.5 games and Milwaukee needs several breaks to catch up.
The Brewers may not make the postseason this year, but at least they had the acumen to get something at the deadline for a closer with a 12.00 ERA – a la Josh Hader.
That savvy move should pay dividends moving forward – next year, definitely, if not this one.
NL West
The Dodgers have made a mockery of their division – making good teams look not good on their quest to become the best baseball team in history.
The Padres are a really good baseball team with a solid record and yet the NL West has a larger gap between its 1st and 2nd-place teams than any other division in baseball.
Why? Because the Dodgers are so darn good. LA is 92-42. With 28 games remaining, the Dodgers need to win 25 more to tie the 117-win record – 26 to beat it.
Is it likely the Dodgers win 26 of their last 28 games? No, but neither is it likely that the Dodgers play .760 baseball over a two-month stretch – and they’ve already done that.
National League Playoff and World Series Equities
NL East
New York Mets 85-80
538 Playoff%: >99%
538 Division Title%: 69%. A slim 1-game lead is enough to rule the Mets a solid favorite for the division title. New York has the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the MLB over their final 27 games and only plays Atlanta for one series.
538 Championship%: 12%
Atlanta Braves 84-51 (1 GB)
538 Playoff%: >99%. Despite longshot odds to win the East, the defending-champion Atlanta is a near lock for the postseason and will likely host a 3-game series.
538 Division Title%: 31%
538 Championship%: 12%
Philadelphia Phillies 73-61 (11.5 GB)
538 Playoff%: 73%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Miami Marlins 55-78 (29 GB)
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: Eliminated. The Marlins are one of 5 teams in baseball eliminated from division contention. All 30 teams still have a mathematical chance at a Wild Card berth.
538 Championship%: <1%
Washington Nationals 48-87 (37 GB)
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: Eliminated. The Nationals are one of 5 teams in baseball eliminated from division contention. All 30 teams still have a mathematical chance at a Wild Card berth.
538 Championship%: <1%
NL Central
St Louis Cardinals 79-56
538 Playoff%: >99%
538 Division Title%: 97%
538 Championship%: 3%
Milwaukee Brewers 71-63
538 Playoff%: 50%
538 Division Title%: 3%
538 Championship%: 1%
Chicago Cubs 56-78
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Cincinnati Reds 53-79
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Pittsburgh Pirates 49-84
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: Eliminated. The Pirates are one of 5 teams in baseball eliminated from division contention. All 30 teams still have a mathematical chance at a Wild Card berth.
538 Championship%: <1%
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers 92-41
538 Playoff%: >99%
538 Division Title%: >99%
538 Championship%: 33%
San Diego Padres 74-61
538 Playoff%: 76%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: 1%
San Francisco Giants 64-68
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Arizona DBacks 64-69
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: <1%
538 Championship%: <1%
Colorado Rockies 57-79
538 Playoff%: <1%
538 Division Title%: Eliminated. The Rockies are one of 5 teams in baseball eliminated from division contention. All 30 teams still have a mathematical chance at a Wild Card berth.
538 Championship%: <1%
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
Leave a Reply