NFL Conference Championship Games Betting Advice: The Chalk is King

Throw all of your NFL playoff knowledge out the window. Forget about upsets and unders. It’s chalk season, baby!

For those new to the game, “chalk” is the term for the popular pick – the no-brainer. For example, when Clayton Kershaw is pitching, the Dodgers are chalk. When Alabama takes the field, they are chalk. Home teams are likely to be the popular pick in conference championship games because they are likely favored and have the home-field advantage.

Since 2002, the home teams have been unstoppable on their march to the Super Bowl. When in doubt, bet the home team. Over the past 16 conference championship weeks, that adage has netted an impressive 7.4% ROI.

For your perusing pleasure, here are both the ATS and SU numbers for conference championship home teams since 2002.

Games	32.0
ATS	18-14 / 56.2%
SU	23-09 / 71.9%
Avg Line	-4.0
ATS ROI	7.40%
SU ROI	4.30%

Of course, 56.2% is far north of the magical break-even point for spread bets. It is actually getting up into that get-rich-quick win rate range that dishonest betting touts promise. A consistent and straightforward system with a true winning percentage of 56.2% seems too good to be true, but it is not!

With an average moneyline of just -4, that SU win percentage is also profitable. It would only take about 68.9% to break even at those odds. Winning nearly 72% gives bettors a nice supplement to the gains they have earned betting the spread.

There is nothing that says you cannot bet the spread and then also the moneyline of the same team to hedge yourself. Things would have to go south quite a bit to lose both of those bets. Odds are that both bets cash in on Sunday.

NFL Conference Championship Betting Advice: Factor in the Spread

The numbers get even better when you narrow the search to include only home favorites. I’m looking right at you Saints and Chiefs. I did not feel comfortable betting against Brees and Co. in the ‘Dome before coming across these numbers, and I definitely will avoid it now.

Remember, the chalk rules in conference championship week. Don’t be outthinking yourself.

Games	26.0
ATS	15-11 / 57.7%
SU	20-06 / 76.9%
Avg Line	-5.7
ATS ROI	10.10%
SU ROI	3.90%

An ATS win percentage approaching 60% is simply a license to print money. If only you had hopped on this train back in 2002, right?

That SU win percentage of 76.9% is not too shabby either. Who would complain about a 3.9% ROI proposition being the second-best bet of the week? Certainly not I.

As Chalky as it Gets (Don’t Wipe Your Hands on Your Pants)

The public loves favorites and the public loves overs. Both of those bets are wildly successful in conference championship weeks since 2002. The over is hitting at a 58.1% clip over the past 32 of these bouts.

Let’s do the math, at 31 games (the total for one game ended in a push), the over has hit 18 times. At $100 per win and $110 per loss, that is an ROI of 10.9%. This is even more lucrative than betting home favorites against the spread!

Whether you read the entire article or just skipped to the bottom for the punchline, here is my NFL conference championship week betting advice: bet the home team to win SU, bet the home team to cover (especially if they are favored), bet the over, thank me later.