NFL Game Odds: Patriots vs Browns ATS Pick and 7 Week 10 Predictions

The Arizona Cardinals were called “lucky” for getting through a 7-1 start with minimal injury woes. In Week 9, the Big Red played with its backup offense in 4-5 key spots and walloped rival San Francisco 31-17. Mid-week hype will be focused on QB Colt McCoy and the embarrassment of riches underneath the top of the skill-position depth chart.

But as WagerBop has pointed out again and again, it’s the Arizona defense that’s the key to a 14-3 or 15-2 season in the desert. Arizona overcame what could be a season-ending injury to linebacker J.J. Watt to play another terrific game on ‘D. Marcus Golden is a high-motor rusher who will flourish so long as referees are strict with holding calls. Chandler Jones brought down 49er quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in the battle as well, eclipsing Freddie Joe Nunn to set a franchise record for sacks. Jones lifted his jersey to allow photographers to snap his T-shirt that displayed a tribute to Nunn, who passed away in October.

Gamblers are slow to react to strong regular seasons, at least when it comes to betting on the next Super Bowl. Tampa Bay remains the top pick at FanDuel at just longer than 5-to-1 odds, while enough people think the Kansas City Chiefs will pull it together to keep KC at 12/1.

But as you’ll find on scroll, NFL bookmakers are well aware of how good the Cardinals are on the gridiron in the here-and-now. In fact, looking at Arizona’s point spreads, you might just think the Cards are a top-5 National Football League team.

The fact that not everyone who crafts the NFL’s hype (and betting odds) would agree with that last statement shows how much bias and stereotyped thinking is still endemic to pro pigskin culture. A lousy “consensus” NFL forecast means ample chances to beat Las Vegas and the betting public alike – at least until the consensus-makers come to their senses.

Week 10 Lines, Point Spreads, and Picks

Thursday Night Football: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Series history is more applicable to amateur sports than pro sports. If there’s a 10-game winning streak in a Friday Night Lights rivalry, then the next game in the series is probably easy to predict. It wouldn’t mean that an NFL team would beat an opponent for the 11th straight time. The Shield is too transient for that kind of analysis.

But when it comes to a beast like the Baltimore Ravens, it’s wise to take a peek at the recent historical record. Defending former league MVP Lamar Jackson is a knack. How has Miami, a (+7.5) point spread underdog on Thursday Night Football this week, managed to defend the dual-threat QB in AFC battles over the years?

Not well – and not often. Miami faced Baltimore in 2019 and dared Jackson to throw over the top of a stacked defense, once thought to be the key to defending option QBs in the NFL. Jackson took to the skies and destroyed the Dolphins, throwing 4 TD passes in the opening half and running-up a 42-10 lead late in the 2nd quarter.

While the roster turnover in Magic City since 2019 is well documented, the new-look ‘Fins have fallen short against the only similar offenses they’ve faced in 2021. Miami allowed over 5 YPC while losing to Buffalo by an aggregate 7 scores in 2 games, and lost to speedy QB Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars in England.

Baltimore’s defense is another story, a unit that’s been thinned by injuries and which can’t be trusted against elite QBs. The good news for TNF favorites’ picks is that the 2-7 Miami Dolphins don’t have a superior QB, passing game, or offense as a whole.

Pick: Ravens (-7.5)

Sunday, November 14: Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

A short time ago, it would have been hard to imagine Cleveland as a (+1.5) point spread underdog at New England. Not that Bill Belichick isn’t a tough out for any visiting NFL team, but the Browns were off to a strong start to the season following last year’s courageous playoff run. Now the Dawgs are stricken with injuries and COVID-19 cases in the offensive backfield, and went into Week 10’s practice slate with only 1 active RB.

The New England Patriots’ current win streak doesn’t seem fated to last through Thanksgiving, but it’s likely to at least extend through this weekend. Belichick’s defense will count on forcing opposing QB Baker Mayfield into awkward passing situations without Nick Chubb or even a familiar set of tailbacks for Mayfield to rely on.

Pick: Patriots (-1.5)

Sunday, November 14: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

It’s clear that Las Vegas bookmakers expect “positive reversion” for NFL contenders in Week 10, similar to how soccer odds-makers expect an elite Premier League team which loses its opening 2 matches to start winning again, sooner rather than later. For instance, the Baltimore Ravens were terrible in Week 7 and shaky in Week 9, but Sin City still expects Lamar Jackson’s club to post a solid road victory over Miami on TNF.

Likewise, the Buffalo Bills lost to the Jaguars 9-6 last week as Jacksonville’s front-7 chased, laced, and punished Buffalo QB Josh Allen. Still, the Bills are a massive (-13.5) point spread favorite over the host New York Jets on Sunday.

New York’s defense is porous enough to lose by 14 points, that’s for certain. The last time an opponent scored less than 27 points against the Jets was in early October, and Gang Green needed 405 passing yards from Mike White to beat Cincinnati for its only win since then. That doesn’t change the fact that Buffalo is in at least a temporary mid-season swoon and isn’t playing well enough to justify a 2-touchdown spread for a cold road game.

Pick: Jets (+13.5)

Sunday, November 14: Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals

It’s official – the 8-1 Arizona Cardinals are underrated.

WagerBop has been first to point out Arizona’s potential weak spots in 2021-22, including QB Kyler Murray’s occasional lack of efficiency in shoot-out games, and the ominous news of J.J. Watt’s long-term absence from the Cardinal defense. But the Big Red have been ranked as low as #6 by NFL Power Rankings “experts” in Week 10. That’s not an honest mistake, but a slight against a “minor market” franchise.

Just imagine the Cowboys or Rams coming within 1 play of a 9-0 start and getting ranked 6th! It’s also worth mentioning that Super Bowl futures betting action has not yet caught up to the NFL standings, with the Cardinals standing at modest 9/1 odds to win in February.

The odds-makers at FanDuel Sportsbook aren’t having it. Arizona is a (-10.5) point-spread favorite over the visiting Carolina Panthers this Sunday, despite the day-to-day status of Murray and top WR DeAndre Hopkins. Carolina’s missing a quarterback, a star tailback, and a pulse, making FanDuel’s (44) point O/U prediction a little too generous under the circumstances. Arizona may be protecting a 21-3 or 24-10 lead in the 2nd half, and a backup-led offense will probably slow things down for once.

Pick: Under (44)

Sunday, November 14: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

Lines on the Packers (-3.5) vs Seahawks match-up are in limbo due to Aaron Rodgers’ status for Week 10. The legendary QB has been a lightning rod for controversy in the past week, even losing a sponsor for refusing to adhere to the NFL’s demands for up-to-date vaccination status. Rodgers has in fact suffered an asymptomatic COVID-19 infection, but is confident of returning to the gridiron with a clean bill of health by this weekend.

Jordan Love was once heralded as Aaron Rodgers’ successor at Lambeau Field. In fact, the Pac-12 product was touted as the team’s best short-term option at QB by some analysts. Such old editorials were carefully removed from Twitter and Facebook as of Monday morning, following Love’s miserable Week 9 loss to Kansas City. If Love is confirmed as the Packers’ only real option at QB on Sunday, standing point-spread picks on the Green Bay Packers minus a field goal will feel like unfair deals in the bookie’s favor.

Gamblers aren’t certain enough about Rodgers’ start on Sunday to wager Green Bay minus a TD, and others are betting on Seattle as an excuse to cheer against the signal-caller. Neither of those factors are a reason to disregard the Over (49.5), a pick which is probable to win even if Rodgers does not play. Rodgers’ backup QB is so overwhelmed behind center that Green Bay might turn the ball over 4+ times and feed easy TDs to the Seahawks, but the Seattle defense is so blue-collar that Green Bay will score points anyway. If Rodgers does suit up for Packer Nation, watch the O/U line rise and hold on to that bet slip.

Pick: Over (49.5)

Sunday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

It makes sense why Kansas City is a (-144) favorite to win in Las Vegas on Sunday Night Football. Sin City bookmakers are nothing if not neutral to hometown brands, and while the Packers may have a distracted unit when losing to KC last week, the Las Vegas Raiders could be even more mentally off-kilter in a season full of tragedy and rancor.

That doesn’t mean Kansas City is a solid pick ATS. When a line is handicapped accurately, bettors must look elsewhere on the game’s gambling board. A generous Over/Under line of (52.5) is too reflective of the Chiefs’ epic playoff success and not this particular fall’s struggles. Kansas City is nimble and often effective in pass defense, but the team’s DBs can’t get Pat Mahomes’ mojo back. The former MVP must find it himself.

Pick: Under (52.5)

Monday Night Football: Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

This week’s MNF contest was booked as a clash of NFC contenders. San Francisco’s improved roster health promised Kyle Shanahan’s team a revival in 2021-22, while the L.A. Rams have the talent to host a Super Bowl in February. It didn’t work out that way as the rivals have recorded vastly different W/L marks. Los Angeles is pleased after a 7-2 start, but the 49ers have blown a gasket at 3-6 and are in danger of missing the playoffs.

The Mountain Goats are only a (-4) point spread favorite for Monday’s kickoff, a product of San Francisco’s reputation as a tough out in any NFC West game. The 49ers may have psychology on their side as the more desperate team with a point to prove on home turf. Those who have gambled on Giants vs Eagles bouts know that W/L isn’t everything.

Once again, though, FanDuel’s O/U line is set too high at (49) points. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was inaccurate and unhappy on the field vs Arizona in Week 9, a bad sign for an offense that was once buoyed by an explosive run game. Sean McVay’s offense has enough weaponry to overcome a noisy road-crowd and score 3-4 touchdowns, but not necessarily in mid-season when McVay would prefer to coast along with 27-10 victories if possible.

Pick: Under (49)