NFL Odds and Best Bets: Cardinals at Lions O/U Total Pick and Rams vs Seahawks ATS

It’s strange to see NFL bookmakers doing well at setting a certain category of betting lines, while making mistakes in another “category” of lines in the same actual market.

For instance, point spreads on Week 15’s most well-matched NFL games appear to be handicapped with accuracy by Las Vegas. Tennessee-Pittsburgh is an extremely hard-to-predict match of physical football teams that probably deserves its tightening 1-point spread in Sin City. Cincinnati (-2.5) must prove that it can weather a late-season storm (perhaps literally) upon visiting the Denver Broncos this Sunday, and a Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars “Toilet Bowl” is wisely forecast to end within a field-goal’s margin of absolute suckage.

But the wider point spreads – including some 4+ point margins that ought to be larger by now – are all over the map in terms of hitting or whiffing on the league’s top angles. FanDuel is still offering the L.A. Rams minus just (-4.5) points against the 5-8 Seattle Seahawks, a line that clients at the U.S. provider are not taking advantage of enough as of Wednesday. Los Angeles is flying high on the gridiron with 2 teams, not just 1, that could whip visiting Seattle by 2 TDs or more.

If gamblers aren’t picking thin L.A. Rams point spreads, what are they up to in Week 15? Namely, causing wild line-movement on Thursday and Saturday games.

Before we get back to those dodgy spreads, it’s time to look at a pair of wacky point totals.

Week 15 Lines, Point Spreads, and Picks

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (Thursday Night Football)

Thursday Night Football’s O/U number has been lifted to (52) thanks to a large supply of high-side point total bets. Compelling angles for the L.A. vs Kansas City kickoff do suggest that an “Over” wager against the Las Vegas point total could be a solid pick. However, it’s wise to first examine why Sin City set opening O/U lines as low as (49.5) for a Pat Mahomes vs Justin Herbert prime-time scrum.

Kansas City’s defense has blossomed into as effective a unit as can be found in the AFC despite, even after flagging through much of September and October. A grand total of 5 consecutive teams have now failed to score 10+ points against the Chiefs, who have allowed only 58 conversions on 3rd down while forcing and recovering 10 fumbles.

The L.A. defense is certainly not a group to take lightly either. Bolt defenders rank in the top 40% of the NFL in most statistical categories against rush attempts and passing plays alike. Much to the dismay of recent Broncos-to-Rams transplant Von Miller, Joey Bosa has become the sensation of the City of Angels pigskin season at pass-rusher.

Despite the rising line on Thursday’s showdown, the Kansas City Chiefs’ tight (-3) point spread provides a clue as to why U(52) picks remain a vulnerable choice. Weeks 11-thru-14 could be seen as a turning point for KC’s offense, and Herbert is not the kind of young pistolero to shy away from taking chances if Mahomes gets off to another hot start. Dueling tempo-drives in the 4th quarter combined with a mild weather forecast are not congruent with “Under” wins.

Recommended bet: Over (52)

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (Saturday, December 18)

Sharp line-movement on Over/Under totals is also affecting Saturday’s NFL games. Sin City point-total lines for Indianapolis vs New England have risen by more than a field goal to (45.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook, though gamblers should be wary of betting the new “Over” market, as New England recently won a game with the aid of just 3 forward passes. Cleveland and Las Vegas will meet for a Week 15 kickoff that was handicapped at (44.5) total points on opening bets, but has dropped like a stone to O/U (40) since.

Given the new number, continued low-side bets on Browns-Raiders could be even more poisonous than predicting a high-scoring win from The Hoodie. Las Vegas was blown-out by the Kansas City Chiefs for a 2nd time on Sunday, but the Kansas City defense is a hot group at the moment. Cleveland’s offense scored 17 points in the 1st half of Week 14’s scrum with the stubborn Ravens.

The Browns-Raiders O/U line has been further dragged down due to a weather forecast of mixed precipitation. But that’s no explanation for why 2 aggressive QBs aren’t expected to sink or swim in the passing game as opposed to meekly handing-off for 60:00 of a must-win scenario for each AFC club.

Recommended bet: Over (40)

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (Sunday, December 19)

Despite taking a 24-0 halftime lead on Sunday, Dallas couldn’t produce a healthy ground game in both halves, and QB Dak Prescott’s efficiency suffered as the day went on. That allowed Washington Football Team to hang close on home turf while appearing totally out-matched in the opening 2 quarters.

Be wary of inflated odds on the Cowboys. For instance, the 9-4 club is a double-digit point spread pick for Sunday’s NFC East clash in New York, a dodgy favorites’ spread given the New York Giants’ ability to defend East Rutherford, and considering that Big Blue is more accustomed to cold-weather football. Rivalry glory is about all that the Giants have left to shoot for while the rest of the division fights for seeds in the postseason.

Recommended bet: Giants (+10.5)

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (Sunday, December 19)

Sunday’s bout between Arizona and Detroit will be far more interesting than a classic David vs Goliath mis-match. Detroit QB Jared Goff has essentially swapped places with Matt Stafford of the L.A. Rams in 2021, and just watched his old team connect for well over 10 yards-per-reception against Arizona’s green secondary.

Can the Cards bounce back against a “Rams-lite” offense with only 5 days to prepare? FanDuel’s odds-makers think so, taking a whopping (-13.5) from Arizona on Sunday’s point spread. That’s a generous number with RB Chase Edmunds still ailing and WR DeAndre Hopkins working his way back to 100%. But after watching the Lions let down and lose 38-10 in Denver following what could have been a watershed Week 13 victory, bookmakers don’t believe that Arizona’s vaunted pass rush can be blocked by Detroit.

Arizona’s defense just took a shot on the chin, making an O/U total of (47.5) for a domed-stadium kickoff feel a bit too conservative.

Recommended bet: Over (47.5)

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, December 19)

The NFL is getting schooled by Sean McVay. COVID-19 has caused sports teams to fold for entire seasons, forced the beloved Denver Broncos to operate in Single Wing formation for the entirety of a 31-3 loss to New Orleans, and reduced a litany of field-goal underdogs to losing by more than 3 points over the past 2 years. When the Los Angeles Rams were hit with a wave of COVID-19, knocking out 5 starting contributors prior to Week 14’s kickoff in Arizona, McVay still led the team to a victory that could help define the Mountain Goats’ 2021-22 season.

San Francisco lost to Seattle (+4) in a sloppy Week 13 game at Lumen Field. Pete Carroll’s 5-8 club went on to defeat the lifeless Houston Texans to ward-off a guaranteed losing season for another week. But the Seahawks couldn’t keep up with the visiting Rams on October 7th, begging the question as to what bookmakers expect to happen differently in Week 15. Outside of making a fun spoiler bid, Seattle has way less to play for than the L.A. Rams do.

Meanwhile, Matt Stafford quieted critics on Monday with his brilliant take-down of Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. The Motor City transplant survived 3 sacks to punish the Cardinals for 287 yards and a trio of TD passes. WR Cooper Kupp was such an effective target for #9 that even Big Red fans yelled “Coop!” with excitement.

A single MNF victory is not cause enough to overrate the Rams, but few NFL teams with 9-4 records would be handicapped as mere (-4) favorites over a Seattle team that’s struggled.

Recommended bet: Rams (-4)

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday Night Football)

Gamblers are rushing to take New Orleans (+10.5) and double-digit points for Sunday Night Football, defying Tampa Bay’s excellent record at home. The defending Super Bowl champions are averaging 28 points and 6.3 yards per play at Raymond James Stadium, while the Buccaneers allow guests well under 2 TDs per 60 minutes.

Why such an influx of bets for the Saints? Old Gold hasn’t won a football game since October except for Sunday’s victory over the sad-sack New York Jets. Of course, it was on the 31st of October that New Orleans upset Tampa 37-25.

The “how” behind the Saints victory in Week 14 is what gamblers are enthused about. Dual-threat QB Taysom Hill was a force on the ground against New York, and the Buccaneers didn’t square-off against Hill last time around.

The notion that Tampa Bay will take 2-3 quarters to get its bearings before shutting Hill’s option game down misses the point slightly, as Buccaneer head coach Bruce Arians is an old-fashioned NFL strategist with stone-cold contempt for running QBs. Whatever the Saints do on Sunday night, if it involves the option play, Arians will figure it’s stupid and let it play out.

The Bucs are likely to blitz the pocket from the get-go while Tom Brady works to manufacture his own TOP advantage with judicious run-audibles. As a result, the game may not produce as many points as an O/U line of (46.5) points seems to surmise.

Recommended bet: Under (46.5)

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (Monday Night Football)

Optimistic touts on the Chicago Bears’ chances this Monday night may not age very well on the world wide web. Chicago (+4) produced a spirited upset bid at Lambeau Field on Sunday night, generating 259 yards and a touchdown on special teams. But the Bears still lost 45-30, dropping the club to 4-9 and spelling the likely end of unpopular head coach Matt Nagy’s tenure. Chicago also stands at 4-9 ATS, and media reports of Nagy’s “having fun” are hollow attempts to salvage a positive talking point.

The opposing Vikings out-played expectations against Pittsburgh in Week 14 and are probable to do so again with 10 days to prepare and a potential Wild Card berth still glimmering. The Norsemen know that going 2-0 against Chicago is an absolute must-have scenario with Green Bay and the L.A. Rams up next on the ledger.

Chicago’s burly, aggressive defense makes underdog betters excited about the matchup against Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins and his supporting cast. Nagy’s teams play a sturdier brand of offense than some of Chicago’s previous efforts, but Justin Fields is a haphazard young signal-caller, and Cousins is the veteran leading a better, more motivated group that simply must win as expected.

Recommended bet: Vikings (-4)