Sunday, November 20: Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday’s widest point spread isn’t even a close call. NFL betting lines in Week 11 could shift a lot without Baltimore’s current (-13) point spread not leading in margin.
The AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens can boast of the most methodical and consistent 11-on-11 offense outside of dual-threat Jalen Hurts’ new powerhouse in Philly. FanDuel’s question is whether the 2022-23 Baltimore defense can make as many spectacular game-changing plays against elite rivals as Philadelphia’s this season.
But it may be a while until we find out, given that Baltimore’s schedule in late November and December may be the weakest out of all 32 teams’ remaining slates. Incredibly, the Ravens’ next challenge against a very good NFL quarterback with a solid supporting cast could come in Week 17, when Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals play host to Big Truss.
We’re still not sure that (-13) is a reasonable line for Sunday’s battle in Maryland, given the Ravens’ occasional syndrome of escaping with squeaky-tight wins over inferior opposition. Carolina’s commitment to rushing the ball has borne dividends even as Christian McCaffery finally moves his family elsewhere, and the Panthers have only lost a single game in regulation minutes since falling to the Rams 24-10 on October 16th.
WagerBop’s Pick: Panthers ATS (+13)
Sunday, November 20: Detroit Lions at New York Giants
There’s a lot to be said for the New York Giants (-3) standing in 2nd place in a crowded NFC East this year, and the Giants’ 3-1 road record potentially augurs well for a Thanksgiving visit to Jerry World. What’s more, sportsbooks appear to have overlooked the northeastern weather angle in only taking a field goal away from the Big Blue vs an indoor franchise.
WagerBop’s Pick: Giants (-3)
Sunday, November 20: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
We’ve defended the 2022-23 Dallas Cowboys at every turn through a strange season in which Jerry Jones’ team is improved on the gridiron, yet flagging in Power Rankings and other pundits’ measurements of success.
But it’s hard to defend a “sentimental” point spread like (+1.5) on the road against the surging Minnesota Vikings. Dallas has better chances to earn a Wild Card berth by taking full advantage of a weak December slate.
WagerBop’s Pick: Vikings ATS (-1.5)
Sunday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
The Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) and Los Angeles Chargers should have a nice, mild evening to play football on, but you wouldn’t know it from looking at FanDuel’s cautious Over/Under total of (51.5) points. Injuries have slowed the Bolts’ impressive offense while KC wins and loses games by scores like 24-20 and 20-17, and the resurgent 49ers could have given Andy Reid a nice blueprint for stopping the Chargers in San Francisco’s latest triumph over SoCal. But it’s difficult to recommend anything but an “Over” pick when 2 exceptionally skilled teams are each happy about where a kick-off is. KC’s defense will miss Arrowhead’s roar, but QB Pat Mahomes will take all the warm-weather opportunities he can get.
WagerBop’s Pick: Over (51.5)
Monday Night Football: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Are the San Francisco 49ers playing consistently well enough to be a near double-digit favorite in NFC West road games? San Fran’s (-8.5) point spread for Monday night’s game in Week 11 reflects that the visitors’ active 2-game streak has carved out a comfortable spot in the changing division, with only an enigmatic Seattle club standing .5 games ahead.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo is back on top of things in the Golden Gate City, and has a brand new toy in the offensive backfield named “McCaffery.” Arizona, meanwhile, has inexplicably cut the popular play-maker Eno Benjamin in Week 11, and embattled HC Kliff Kingsbury doesn’t know which of his QBs is the healthiest and/or best option for MNF.
Conversely, when an NFL team needs a win at home to stay in contention, it’s probably a bad idea to predict a lopsided game in the 4th quarter. Backup QB Colt McCoy can be a steadying influence for Arizona’s feast-or-famine attack, just as he served at a similar juncture in 2021-22. The 49ers’ 28-14 loss to Atlanta on October 16th revealed major weaknesses that no superstar trade or few weeks’ worth of practice can cure.
WagerBop’s Pick: Cardinals ATS (+8.5)
Kurt has authored close to 1000 stories covering football, soccer, basketball, baseball, ice hockey, prize-fighting and the Olympic Games. Kurt posted a 61% win rate on 200+ college and NFL gridiron picks last season. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.