NFL Trends: Profit Big During Last 2 Weeks of the Season

Here we are … 32 games remaining in the 2018 NFL regular season. Every single player in the NFL has some sort of agenda over these final 2 weeks. It may be securing a playoff spot, getting healthy for the playoffs, winning a job for next year, or earning a huge payout in a contract year.

With so many opposing interests and story-lines it can be difficult or even downright impossible to handicap late-season games. Fortunately for us, some trends have emerged over the past decade of late-season football. Let’s dig in!

Betting Home Teams Late in the Season

When I originally set out to find trends for the final 2 weeks of the season, I started with my bread-n-butter … home-field advantage. I found that since 2008, home teams have won at a 53.4% clip ATS in the final 2 weeks. While this is higher than the break-even point for spread betting, we are capable of bigger returns.

A $100/game backer of each late-season home team since 2008 would be up just $640, or $64 per year. This is a 1.9% ROI. The moneyline would not even be profitable with this system. At a  -2.9 average line, these home teams would need to win between 61% and 62% of their games to break-even. 60.3% ain’t cutting it.

You know me. I’m going to keep adding criteria to the system until we get something worthy of writing home about. Next up … I determine who has better success in the final 2 weeks: favorites or dogs?

Adding the Underdog Criteria

It turns out you cannot bank on home favorites this late in the season,. Since 2008, these teams have covered the spread at a mere 51.9% clip. At an average line of -6.6, their 71.2% win rate on the moneyline is not profitable either.

I was pleasantly surprised when I saw how well late-season home underdogs had fared over the past 10 years. These teams were hot, covering at a 57.0% clip since 2008. It appears that playing at home gives struggling teams the boost they need to pull one last upset.

Not only are late-season home dogs good to the tune of 8.8% ROI ATS, but they are the first system I have found with a profitable moneyline. With an average line of 5.5, these home dogs only need to win at a 32% rate to profit. These resilient clubs have won 35.8% SU, good for an ROI of 12.0%.

As if a system with a double-digit ROI is not good enough, I have also discovered a late-season trend hiding in plain sight … the under.

Always Bet the Under in the Final 2 Weeks

While experimenting with different criteria in my late-season systems, I noticed that the under seemed to be hitting an awful lot in Weeks 16 and 17. Turns out this trend has also been very lucrative over the past decade.

Take a look at this table in which I give the yearly breakdown of the over/under numbers since 2008.

Year	Over %	Under %
2017	31.2%	68.8%
2016	65.6%	34.4%
2015	35.5%	64.5%
2014	38.7%	61.3%
2013	34.4%	65.6%
2012	45.2%	54.8%
2011	48.4%	51.6%
2010	46.9%	53.1%
2009	53.1%	46.9%
2008	53.1%	46.9%
Total	45.3%	54.7%

Since 2008, there has been a clear tendency for unders to hit in the final 2 weeks of the season. In 4 of the past 5 years, more than 60% of the games in the final 2 weeks of the season have finished under the point total.

Use these simple yet profitable NFL trends to end your regular season on a good note. See you at the top!