NFL Week 3 Betting Trends

With two weeks under our belts, we can now see which teams deserve respect and which are already looking forward to next year … sorry Bills and Lions.

Teams are pretty much in one of three schools of thought entering into this week:

• We are 2-0. 75% of teams that start 3-0 make the playoffs. Let’s do it!
• We are 1-1 and cannot afford to fall to 1-2.
• We are 0-2. 3% of teams that start 0-3 make the playoffs. We desperately need a win!

These storylines along with the “trap game” effect can create some intriguing matchups.

There are two games I have my eyes on this weekend and I could not be more confident about either. I can feel this is going to be a good Week 3!

Jets +3 (+105) @ Browns – Thursday 9/20

For the life of me I cannot figure out why the public loves the Browns. They have given us absolutely no reason to trust them and yet bettors are sprinting to their computers to put money on them.

If I have said it once I have said it a thousand times: When the public is all over one team, bet the other.

If you saw my 2018 Browns predictions, you know that I am not high on this team. I do not think that Tyrod Taylor will be a good fit for this offense. I believe Cleveland’s defense is overrated and their coaching is dead-worst in the league.

The Browns have not won a game since December 24, 2016. Since they lack talent, their best chance at a win will be to catch their opponent taking them lightly.

Good teams like the Packers or Eagles may not get fired up to play in Cleveland as they would rather be squaring off with the Patriots in primetime. A terrible team like the Jets sees a winnable game and cannot wait to get out there.

The Jets will not take the Browns likely. It is pretty bold by oddsmakers to make Cleveland the favorites, considering they have not won a game in over 600 days. I just do not see it happening.

The Jets have won their previous 5 matchups with Cleveland. They obviously know how to take care of business against the Browns. I believe any Browns win this year will come against good opponents who overlook them, not bad teams who are going to give their best effort.

Patriots -7 (-110) @ Lions – Sunday 9/23

The former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia made a big offseason splash by signing with Detroit but has underwhelmed and even been booed by Lions fans through the first two weeks.

It never seems to work out when a Bill Belichick assistant takes a head coaching job and tries to implement the “Patriot Way”. These coaches tend to struggle, especially when facing their old mentor. I think Belichick enjoys socking it to his old colleagues.

I have compiled a list of several former Patriot coaches facing off with Belichick. The numbers are not pretty:

Coach	Team (Years)	SU Record vs Patriots	ATS Record vs Patriots	Score of 1st Game vs Pats
Bill O’Brien	Texans (2014-present)	0-5	1-4	Lost 27-6
Eric Mangini	Jets (2006-08)	2-5	3-4	Lost 24-17
Josh McDaniels	Broncos (2009-10)	1-0	1-0	Won 20-17
Romeo Crennel	Browns (2005-08) Chiefs (2011-12)	0-2	0-2	Lost 34-17

Crennel could not beat Belichick and O’Brien is still trying. Mangini lost 5 of his first 6 against Belichick. Josh McDaniels beat the Patriots in their only meeting but did not last long as a head coach.

Normally I avoid betting favorites when the spread is -7 or higher, but these former Pats coaches have lost by an average of 10.5 points in their first game against Belichick.

Great quarterbacks and head coaches rarely lose two consecutive games. After last week’s trouncing by the Jaguars, you know Brady and Belichick will be trying to run the score up in Ford Field.

Even though the Lions are 0-2 and should be focusing on the task at hand, this is a bit of a trap game for them. They head to Dallas next week before taking on divisional foe Green Bay the week after. In contrast, New England hosts the Dolphins next week.

Everything seems to indicate that the Patriots have a major advantage in this football game.