NFL Week 7: Raiders vs Eagles Point Spread Pick, Best SNF and MNF Totals Bets

It’s time to admit that my NFL interest is 100% nerdy. Most analysts are consumed with the rise of the Arizona Cardinals, fascinated by Tom Brady’s enduring success in his 40s, and eagerly hyping the Dallas Cowboys as a playoff team.

But my focus on on the Baltimore Ravens, who are turning the NFL into the Sun Belt. Worse for Big Truss opponents, the Ravens are Coastal Carolina, or Louisiana in a good year. Baltimore’s ongoing dominance through a whale’s list of injuries is a testament to how misleading the pro football media can be. After all, the “experts” spent 40 years on TV saying that what Lamar Jackson is doing now was not only impossible, but such a stupid idea that it would be weird for anyone to try.

The same publicity hounds will cause the Cowboys to be overvalued on most weekends, putting this blogger in a strange position. I really like the 2021 Dallas Cowboys, but a handicapper’s always got to remember how Big D’s pigskin brand stands unique in all of sports. The Cowboys aren’t just bigger than football, they’re bigger than geography. (Oil barons have told stories of meeting Japanese tycoons who knew nothing of any American city or landmark, to say nothing of having watched NFL games or visited Texas, and then when “Dallas” was mentioned they would jump up and say “Ooh! Dallas Cowboy!” and the table would explode in smiles). So long as people keep recreationally betting on legacy teams, we’ve got to be open to cheering for Dak Prescott “for free” on a majority of Sundays, or risk losing some Silver.

WagerBop isn’t just passing on Dak and Zeke these days, but on “sides” picks for unpredictable prime-time NFL games. Aye, touting a pair of Over/Under totals picks for Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football is as nerdy as it gets. (Yes, there’s an O/U pick on TNF right on scroll, too).

But the gambler works from a different set of priorities on NFL Sunday – she’s happy to wear glasses so long as that nice, sharp, pixelated betting stake goes up.

NFL Week 7 Odds, Lines, and Best Bets

TNF: Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns are favored by a field goal in Week 7, a scenario that shows trust from NFL gamblers in the up-and-coming Dawgs. Yes, the Browns did lose to an awfully fine team in the Arizona Cardinals, but it would be difficult for any NFL franchise to rebound immediately from the injury woes that plagued Cleveland before and during the Week 6 defeat. QB Baker Mayfield was bruised, battered, and demoralized after facing J.J. Watt’s defense for 4 quarters, snapping at reporters in the post-game press conference. Cleveland RB Kareem Hunt had a bad day and ultimately succumbed to injury without stable-mate Nick Chubb to push the pile. Both of the Dawgs’ starting offensive tackles missed Sunday’s competition as well.

Thursday Night Football will most likely see backup QB Case Keenum taking snaps for Cleveland. Denver doesn’t have a super passing game of its own, making the Week 7 TNF Over/Under total to open at just (42.5) points at FanDuel Sportsbook. Remember that while a mediocre offense is great for producing “Under” outcomes, turnovers tend to lead to high-side outcomes on the point total.

Cleveland will have a feast-or-famine night with the football given such an injured backfield, but the Browns will look to grab takeaways on defense and maybe even push the tempo with a veteran QB at the helm.

Recommended bet: Over (42.5)

October 24th: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati visits a favored Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) team in Week 7. The point spread for this matchup would be wide by NFL standards for just about any 5-1 team hosting a 4-2 team, but Baltimore is controlling Sunday games like few AFC contenders in the modern era, making the spread that more realistic. Baltimore welcomed Justin Herbert and the L.A. Chargers on Sunday and iced the sparking-hot Bolts from start to finish, outrushing a previously 4-1 Los Angeles club by an unreal 7-to-1 ratio.

Lamar Jackson finished the game with 2 INTs and only 1 TD pass, but those numbers were as insignificant as Army’s passing stats vs UConn. The former MVP piloted Baltimore’s option attack for 68 total snaps, moved the chains 27 times, and found star Daily Fantasy TE Mark Andrews for 6 more catches and a touchdown. John Harbaugh’s “primitive” game-plans are criticized as too run-focused, but the coach’s QB is doing a better job targeting the tight end than most “West Coast”-style signal-callers of the NFL.

The Bengals’ defense is full of veteran players who’ve had success defending Jackson in the past, thereby begging the question why a hard-hitting Bengals team isn’t respected more against the spread.

Recommended bet: Bengals (+6) and Under (47.5)

October 24th: Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

Last Sunday’s workmanlike win against Washington put the defending AFC champions back up to .500, but the Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) are far from perfect headed into a crucial conference battle with the Titans.

There was ample daylight in the KC defense for Washington Football Team rushers in Week 6, but WFT signal-caller Taylor Heineke couldn’t take advantage, passing for less than 200 yards with 0 sacks and a modest “QB hurry” count for the Chiefs. Kansas City’s offense overwhelmed the NFC East club with numerous weapons, but QB Pat Mahomes is still trying to do too much and occasionally spraying the ball into heavily guarded situations.

Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans have allowed some big-time passing teams to get rolling in 2021, leading to a logical, if extreme, (56.5) point O/U line on for their upcoming matchup with the Chiefs. The Titans should be handicapped more tightly with a flawed opponent after beating the Buffalo Bills 34-31 behind RB Derrick Henry’s tour-de-force in Week 6. The KC defense remains light on its feet but vulnerable to power-rushing games, potentially adding a TOP disadvantage to Mahomes’ growing list of struggles faced so far this season.

Recommended bet: Titans

October 24th: Carolina Panthers at New York Giants

Past trends and history guide NFL bookmakers in their decisions, making it wise to predict slightly-higher point totals from pro football teams while the weather is fair. That being said, it seems like a stretch for Las Vegas to predict an average Week 7 final score in East Rutherford, as the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers have been racked with key injuries on offense. The remaining healthy Big Blue starters know that the club is unlikely to go anywhere, while the Carolina Panthers will protect any lead like gold while Christian McCaffery is still off the field.

Recommended bet: Under (43.5)

October 24th: Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders

Last week’s Jacksonville-Miami pick involved a game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and not in Florida, however this change in setting wouldn’t have affected FanDuel’s wayward pick on the game anyway. Expert NFL picks might have even taken a few additional points away from the Jaguars given the 5-hour Transatlantic flight to Tottenham’s pitch, since it must have only reminded Jacksonville players of Urban Meyer’s less than ideal behavior one week earlier.

Point-spread and moneyline picks on the Jaguars were bets against the trends that involved making a counter-intuitive prediction, determining in advance that Trevor Lawrence’s lineup could beat the Dolphins without the aid of a respected head coach. Such an outcome would not be so different from how Las Vegas (and Arizona) persevered on the field in Week 6 following their own coaching drama.

It is not possible to adequately cover each NFL team (or venue) every week on our NFL Picks blog, but those who wager the Las Vegas Raiders at the “height” of the team’s controversy and embarrassment could also be making a pick full of sneaky wisdom that could eventually pay off.

After an NFL head coach resigns or is fired mid season, players on that team tend to play even harder, as they must present themselves in the best possible light to any new regime. With the Silver & Black in 2021-22, there’s also an element of relief, as former skipper Jon Gruden was no more universally liked by Las Vegas players than by the groups of individuals he slurred and condescended to in cyberspace.

The Raiders are competing as if thrilled to put the controversy behind them and simply play football, helping produce a road victory over Denver that included 3 interceptions and 5 team TDs. Only elite opponents are able to pull a “jailbreak” squad back to its water line, and the 2021-22 Philadelphia Eagles are simply not in that category.

Recommended bet: Raiders (-3)

October 24th: Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals

As you are reading this very post, the Arizona Cardinals’ point spread for Week 7 might have widened another half-point. Even at an absurd spread of (-17.5) points, Arizona is a hugely popular, and justified, ATS pick over the struggling Houston Texans.

There are no reasons to think that Kyler Murray won’t punish Houston, a team that lost a dual-threat QB of its own when Deshaun Watson’s criminal case boiled over this past summer. Texan defenders gave up 300+ passing yards to Carolina’s pedestrian offense in September, and most recently allowed Jonathan Taylor to gallop in green pastures in Indy’s 31-3 win. Houston is 1-5 and will soon be in jeopardy of its players “going through the motions” should the team continue its losing ways.

When “irrational” 1st-half outcomes begin to pop up on TV scoreboard wheels, football fans and punters know that the mid-season stretch has arrived. Arizona’s excellent roster can’t help but feel comforted by its W/L record, while Houston’s squad will be poised to take a last stab at forging an upset road victory and saving the team’s playoff chances. Too many “experts” make NFL picks as if a team’s psychology is based on what snarky touts think. Murray hasn’t faced a “trap” game as a 20-point favorite since his college football days.

Recommended bet: Texans (+17.5)

SNF: Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers

The 1st quarter of an NFL game tends to have a modest point total, and then points begin to pile-up as teams open-up to try to win. But a (44.5) O/U line on Sunday’s well-matched battle between San Francisco (-3.5) and visiting Indianapolis can only be based on the chances of fireworks right as the opening frame begins.

“This” game (we’re not TV commentators at WagerBop, but the shorthand helps once in a while) could be 1 of the most physical, grudging contests seen in prime-time this season. Bookmakers are counting on San Francisco’s bye-week preparation and expect the team to come out swinging with explosive plays. Starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo is still working his way back from an injury, however, and Indy’s offense will be trying to execute in far more hostile circumstances compared to last week’s blowout performance.

Recommended bet: Under (44.5)

MNF: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

While the Sunday Night Football O/U total may be set too high, the O/U (43.5) line on MNF’s Seattle vs New Orleans kickoff could be a little too cautious.

Seattle has become a wide-open team at home, where the roar of an opposing crowd can’t hurt the club’s shaky pass protection. New Orleans can’t help but score TDs or surrender T/Os with QB Jameis Winston starting. He’s a loose cannon – literally.

Whether the Monday Night Football contest becomes a duel between Winston and Gino Smith or Russell Wilson, or whether it’s a blunder-bowl full of fumbles and interceptions, an uneven and eventful battle is likely to produce 45+ points.

Recommended bet: Over (43.5)