Playing God to Find Value Based on the Chargers-Chiefs Outcome

I feel like a kid in a shop that specializes in both candy and toys. We are down to the final 3 weeks of the NFL season, and we can use this beautiful tool from FiveThirtyEight to play God and fix the outcome of all remaining NFL games.

The reason I want to do this (besides it being loads of fun) is that the site gives me the dynamic chances of each team to make the playoffs, win their division, or win the Super Bowl. I can compare these odds with Vegas’ futures lines to find value.

For this article, I am going to focus solely on finding value based on the three possible outcomes of this Thursday’s Chargers-Chiefs game: win, loss, or … tie. Of course, I will need to know some basic math to convert percentages to Vegas odds, but this handy article contains all of the steps needed in an easy-to-follow format. Let’s have some fun and let our imaginations run wild!

Current Super Bowl Odds

Here are the top-8 Vegas favorites to win Super Bowl 53. Note that 26 of the league’s 32 teams are still eligible for the postseason.

“0 EV %” is not a term I have used before but it appears in my table below. 0 EV % is the percentage chance of the bet winning that creates an expected value of 0 for the bet. It is basically the break-even point. For example, look at the Saints and their +300 line. Using the formula from my article I linked above, we can determine that you have to hit a +300 bet at a 25% rate to break-even.

Thus, if we can determine the Saints have greater than a 25% chance to win the Super Bowl, we should bet them because they would have a positive expected value, or +EV.

Team	Odds to Win SB LIII	0 EV %
Saints	+300	25.0%
Rams	+315	24.1%
Chiefs	+480	17.2%
Patriots	+700	12.5%
Bears	+900	10.0%
Chargers	+1,000	9.1%
Cowboys	+1,900	5.0%
Texans	+1,900	5.0%

Playing God and Adjusting the Outcomes

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Saints currently have a 27% chance to win the Super Bowl. Of course, we need to understand how the site gets this number. Using a system called Elo, all games are simulated 100,000 times to find the most probable result. With Elo evaluating all matchups in the final 3 weeks, the site can calculate chances for each team to reach the playoffs.

There are currently 2 other teams that Elo has shown contain value, the Chiefs and the Patriots. Do some research on Elo and determine what level of trust (if any) you wish to place in this handicapping system.

Alright, let’s do what we came here to do; decide outcomes. The marquee game this week is Chargers-Chiefs for 1st place in the AFC West. This one will influence each side’s division and Super Bowl odds considerably. Vegas has the game close, but if you feel strongly one way or the other you would be well advised to place either an AFC West or a Super Bowl futures bet. Here’s why.

As you can see from this FiveThirtyEight screenshot, the Chiefs currently hold a 90% chance to win the West along with a 21% chance to win Super Bowl 53, second only to the Saints. The Chargers are quite a ways behind with only a 10% chance to win the division and a 6% chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February.

The Kansas City Chiefs Win on Thursday

Check out what happens when we decide the game in favor of the Chiefs. That is done by simply clicking once in the Week 15 box in the Chiefs’ row. Click twice for loss and thrice for tie. Look at what happened to the odds.

The Chiefs clinch the division, are now 24% likely to win the Super Bowl, and become even more valuable futures bets. The loss sends the Chargers into a tailspin. Barring a catastrophe, they will make the playoffs but only as a Wild Card team on the road, drastically reducing their Super Bowl chances to a measly 3%.

At this point, according to Elo, the Chiefs would have a 24% chance of winning Super Bowl 53 while they were only given a 17.2% chance by Vegas. This is amazing value. Thus, if your handicapping tells you that Kansas City is surely going to win on Thursday, it would be wise to place a futures bet down now before Vegas adjusts their lines after the game to take away the value gained.

The Los Angeles Chargers Win on Thursday

What happens if the Chargers win? This would shift power quite a bit, putting the teams in a tie atop both the division and the AFC. The Chiefs would be favored to win that race at 71%, but the Chargers would still be alive with a 29% chance to take the division after beating KC on Thursday.

The Super Bowl odds shift significantly. The Chiefs’ chances would dwindle all the way to 14%, making them bad bets at the current Vegas odds. The Chargers’ chances would jump up to 10%, which we learn is slightly valuable after checking our chart.

Those who absolutely believe the Chargers will get the job done on Thursday can take solace in the fact that any bets placed today on the Chargers to win SB LIII would be +EV, provided the win occurs.

Also, a Chargers win would increase the Patriots’ Super Bowl odds from 13% to 14%, a small increase, but evidence that a Chargers win would also create more value in teams other than themselves.

Chargers-Chiefs Tie on Thursday

In the unlikely event of a tie, the Chiefs would go on to win the AFC West 98% of the time, giving the Chargers only a 2% chance. In terms of Super Bowl hopes, the Chiefs would be sitting strong with a 21% chance while Los Angeles would hold only a 5% chance.

Verdict

If you want to place a traditional bet on the Chargers-Chiefs game, go right ahead. I am simply presenting a fun new toy (with which you can create nearly unlimited scenarios) and an alternate way to make +EV bets.

• Think the Chiefs will win on Thursday? Make a futures bet on KC to win SB LIII right now.
• Think the Chargers will win on Thursday? Definitely fade KC in all futures bets prior to the game and decide if a 0.9% edge is enough to put money behind Los Angeles to win SB LII.

Maybe you could even bet the game traditionally AND make a futures bet. You could put all your eggs in one basket and bet a single team to both win Thursday and in February. You could also hedge your bet by backing Kansas City on Thursday while simultaneously placing a futures bet on the Chargers.

Figure out what works for you. I’ll see you on the top!