Premier League Betting: Leicester’s Lonely Underdog Odds on Matchday 27

Is it customary to write about other competitions when touting the English Premier League? Sure, so long as an EPL team might be affected by a loss under a separate banner.

Don’t ask punters to write-off Liverpool as a solid favorite following a surprise 0-1 loss in a maiden leg of the Champions League Round-of-16. West Ham is a 14-to-1 underdog in Monday’s match at Anfield, and gamblers think the prospect of a draw (+650) is also very unlikely. Line-movement on the spread has been sharply in Liverpool’s favor.

Will there be an atmosphere of doubt or determination around Monday’s hosts? Reds had to know going-into the UEFA leg in Spain that Atlético Madrid would be stubborn if ahead by a goal or even when drawn level. Los Rojiblancos were able to take an early 1-0 lead off a corner kick when long-time midfielder Saúl Ñíguez struck a loose football past Allison at extremely close range. About 90 minutes of FIFA championship-level defending would follow from the host club, as Liverpool did not manage a single shot on-target for the 1st match in eons despite 7 corner kicks and well over 60:00 of ball-possession.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfSjT463D3Q

For contrast, even Liverpool’s “U21” squad managed 8 shots on-target against Aston Villa in an 0-5 Carabao Cup loss back in December.

Man City has played as though hypnotized in a select few domestic losses this season; Liverpool has now suffered the same attacking paralysis in a crucial international match.

Yet if supporters are gambling on Liverpool as if the team hasn’t lost (or can’t lose at all), consider that the favorites are stubbornly-popular bets in almost every moneyline market of the upcoming EPL round. Chelsea’s line-to-defeat Spurs is shortening. Nobody likes Newcastle against Crystal Palace. Sheffield is considered a solid pick against Brighton, and Saints are supposed to take care of visiting Villains as if it were the Jesse James gang invading the Vatican. Only 1 underdog is seeing any substantial line-movement in the team’s favor, and that’s Leicester City – a (+340) and shrinking wager to upset Manchester City at King Power Stadium on Sunday.

Is there something about the Foxes upset bid that makes it more alluring to wiseguys? It could be that City is going through a terrible episode in its own UEFA journey, the psychology of which could affect a traveling team worse than Liverpool’s somber mood coming back from Madrid. Or, it could be just 1 of those dodgy London gold rushes, with shock waves felt in offshore and American sportsbooks alike.

Let’s see what we can find in the other 9 fixtures – or if Leicester City really is the strongest ‘dog on the block this weekend.

Chelsea F.C. vs Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs just can’t get any good injury news. Just when it looked like the club’s goalkeeper Hugo Lloris – and eventually its top striker Harry Kane – would return to form and give Tottenham its nucleus back by spring, a dread realization has struck that reliable, passionate attacker Son Heung-Min needs arm surgery and may be out for the season.

The story coincides with more drummed-up Mourinho business in the headlines. The Tottenham skipper supposedly “ranted” after the Lilywhites’ mid-week Champions League result, an 0-1 leg vs RB Leipzig. But if you read the actual quotes Mourinho is mostly defending his players (and himself) from the criticism he knew would come.

It’s risky business to make the official narrative of a team “everyone’s trying hard, but we’re not good enough” because athletes must believe they can win with a 100% sound effort. That’s why Nashville of the NHL took the glum step of criticizing its own staff when making recent changes, because a soundbite like “it’s very hard to win with this lineup at the moment” would be akin to dropping a nuke in the dressing room. Mourinho is saying it anyway, maybe because he believes it, or perhaps just buying time until a cohesive lineup can come together.

With Son now out for the long term, it’s hard to tell exactly when that could happen.

Meanwhile, though, Chelsea has mostly backed-into the London Derby. Blues’ 2-1 win over Hull City in the 4th Round of FA Cup competition was harder than it needed to be, and the club went on to draw with Foxes at Stamford Bridge prior to Monday’s awful, awful 0-2 result vs visiting Manchester United. Corners were even in the match and Blues actually passed the football better than Red Devils in midfield, but challenged MUFC keeper Willy Caballero with virtually no quality shots for halves at a time.

Yet the media and the betting public see a clear favorite and a clear underdog. Both squads are facing major problems, and no team that can’t make plays into the box against United – let alone score a goal vs a troubled Red Devils side – is a shoo-in to defeat Spurs. Stamford Bridge is worth a lot as a host venue. It’s obviously not worth that much or Monday would have gone differently.

Pick: Tottenham ATS (+0.5) 

Scroll down for in-depth picks on other stand-alone matches of Matchday 27, including Leicester vs Man City, Arsenal vs Everton, and Liverpool vs West Ham. Now for a quick wrap-around of Saturday’s simultaneous fixtures…

Burnley F.C. vs A.F.C. Bournemouth

Not much movement on the moneyline for this event at Turf Moor. Clarets are a (+110) favorite after beating Southampton 2-1 on the virtue of Czech National Team conscript Matěj Vydra’s goal in the 2nd half. Saturday’s hosts haven’t come up with a bad result on an EPL pitch since losing to Chelsea in early January, despite facing a gauntlet of Foxes, Red Devils, and Gunners all in a row.

I’m sure I’m not the 1st person to have said this, but the interior of Burnley’s shield looks designed to resemble – at a glance – an Intellivision or Atari 2600 video game image. Is the club stuck in the 1980s? To be sure, there is nothing Chia-Pet dorky about Burnley’s historical performance vs Bournemouth, with 5 victories in 7 Premier League matches. But I’m wondering what supporters see in Cherries which has kept the moneyline where it is. Bournemouth recently lost to Blades 1-2 after a Pyrrhic victory over Villains (central midfielder Jefferson Lerma was red-carded) and a 4th-round FA Cup loss to Arsenal.

Pick: Burnley 

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United

CPFC was a slight plus-wager when betting began and is now a (-105) favorite to beat visiting Magpies. It’s true that Newcastle’s UEFA ambitions came to a temporary THUD! of a halt on Sunday, as Gunners prevailed 4-0 with an absolute romp of a 2nd half. But the Newcastle backline was only poor in the latter 45+ minutes of play, giving me pause to write the club off as reverting to its customary form. Magpies are still within striking distance of a Europa League placement and free of tournament obligations until March. Of course, thanks to Palace’s loss to Derby County in winter FA Cup competition, Eagles are among the thin number of well-accomplished teams in Europe appearing in a grand total of 0 events outside of domestic league as of mid-February.

Pick: Over (2) 

Sheffield United vs Brighton & Hove Albion

I’m going to start typing-out Brighton’s entire name more often, since as loyal readers know, it reminds me of Led Zeppelin. Sheffield, meanwhile, reminds us of some of the better Cinderella teams in club soccer over the past 10 years.

Is there a Led Zeppelin lyric about reaching way up over your head, succeeding at something beyond wildest dreams? Maybe 4 musicians wouldn’t actually stand a chance in a Viking war, but Sheffield stands a chance in the Premiership, and possibly in UEFA too. It’s not a laser-light guitar show. But it’s a sight to see.

Too bad up-and-coming GK Dean Henderson doesn’t belong to Sheffield in principle – not yet, anyway. Blades lost to Man City and Liverpool 0-0-3 in the club’s last 3 real tests. But the backline has been spectacular against pedestrian opponents, and Sheffield is feasting on vulnerable clubs in the Premier League and in the FA Cup. Brighton qualifies, having just gone 1-3-2 through an all-competition schedule of (ahem) Sheffield Wednesday, Everton, Villa, Bournemouth, West Ham, and Watford. It’ll only get tougher from here on out.

Pick: Sheffield United (+103) 

Southampton F.C. vs Aston Villa

There is absolutely no reason to mark Saints a (-160) (and shrinking!) wager-to-win and Villains a (+400) underdog. Southampton’s attack looks alive in league play, no doubt – the lineup is doing more than its customary running up to challenge on-the-ball defenders and making aggressive feints. But the club’s hot streak ended when it met Tottenham and Liverpool in 3 combined matches, then dropped 3 points to visiting Clarets. Aston Villa is a desperate team which will put it all on the line to avoid relegation with points vs a beatable foe.

Pick: Aston Villa ATS (+1) 

Leicester City vs Manchester City

Now, finally, an underdog everyone seems to agree is a solid choice – Leicester City at (+340) (and falling) to beat Man City at King Power Stadium in Saturday’s late match.

Of course City discussion is swirling around the UEFA Champions League ban. It’s not as if City has been disqualified from the tournament this year (to my knowledge) – in fact Citizens could stage a marvelous coup by winning the crown in 2020 and then walking away for 2 cycles if need be, claiming all the while to be the legitimate reigning European champs. It’s not like anyone would have a chance to knock them off. This is not a happy time at Man City headquarters, but it’s still a profitable era for everyone on the playing surface, and I see no reason to believe there will be a dip in City’s league form except to say that the club may be more determined than ever to win the CL.

That’s not to say Leicester isn’t a formidable foe. The opening 4-to-1 odds on Foxes were clearly too long, and the club simply continues to be underrated no matter what its accomplishments in matches.

Foxes stand at 50 points and a solid 3rd on the table, not many years from having won the whole damn Premier League. The team is advancing through the FA Cup and put on a terrific show in the Carabao Cup. Leicester was out-scored an ugly 7-1 in successive meetings with fellow front-runners Man City and Liverpool earlier in winter, but the lineup was in comparatively poor form then, drawing at home against Canaries and blowing a late 1st-half lead against West Ham in a needlessly-tense 2-1 win over the holidays. More recently, Foxes has shown glimpses of the early-season form which propelled the club into contention for a Champions League bid, blasting Hammers 4-1 and drawing 2-2 with Chelsea Football Club.

Only 1 problem – Leicester was taxed with a red card in what could have been a gainful trip to Molineux Stadium last week. The match thankfully ended in a draw despite a customarily wound-up Wolves side having an 11-on-10 advantage with the Foxes formation having been gutted from the middle. Only bright spot – guilty party Hamza Choudhury is not a crucial attacking player as far as central midfielders go. Leicester manager Brendan Rogers is just as likely to work with 4-across the back and midfield and utilize the club’s trademark 2-pronged counterattack at forward. Still, supporters wonder about the depth and quality of Leicester vs a dynamo like Man City given that Foxes did not score against Wolverhampton (or Aston Villa 2 weeks ago) when tallies were badly needed.

Leicester is among the clubs that have been priced maybe a half-goal wrongly on Matchday 27. For that reason, I’m suggesting a Draw pick at (+300). I’ll look like a fool if City romps 5-0 while glaring at UEFA officials through the camera lens, and like a chump if Leicester prevails and an even bigger payoff/daring prediction was left on the table.

But we’ll relive the glory of last week’s Burnley-over-Southampton pick if it’s a tight battle in which Foxes earn respect but come away with a single point.

Pick: Draw

Manchester United vs Watford F.C.

Sunday’s biggest attraction comes with a (2.5) Over/Under line which hasn’t risen fast enough. United won’t ever have consistent backline and midfield form until an elite manager is on board again (sorry) but supporters go awry when blaming every problem Red Devils have on some mysterious conflict or force behind the scenes. United has been pasting weak opponents for the most part, but the threat of a listless effort and an upset loss seems to be ever-lurking.

What you have to question is the depth of the Watford backline. For a regal, royal brand name like Man United, the (-165) favorites’ lineup has been involved in some bruising battles in 2020. Even Red Devils’ Carabao Cup semifinal against Man City came with a red card, taken by the same midfielder – Nemanja Matić – who scored the opening (and only) goal. Matić is known as a “defensive” midfielder on lineup reports but he was as desperate as the rest of MUFC to find an aggregate equalizer that never came.

I mention City’s difficult Cup contest with United not to be superfluous but – in the context of Hornets’ struggles in 2019-20 – to point out that whatever outcome comes out of Sunday’s stand-alone fixture, it’s unlikely to happen without Manchester United possessing the pelota for at least 65% or 70% of the match. Under those circumstances, at least 1 or 2 United goals are likely in the opening 45+ minutes. At that point, things could open up both ways, leading to another debacle for MUFC or (depending on bounces) an easy 4-1 victory.

Pick: Over 

Wolverhampton vs Norwich City

Wolves is everyone’s favorite Under pick on a weekly basis, so why is the Over/Under line (2.5) and moving slightly upward and various sportsbooks? Canaries will relish the chance to take time when playing out from the back against a more-conservative-than-usual rival.

Pick: Under

Arsenal F.C. vs Everton F.C.

Everton (+255) was among my “precious” underdog lines that were blogged in-favor of investing in last summer. Toffeemen went out and had a precious autumn indeed, as in 1 of the most-embarrassing stretches of losing football you’ll ever see from a marquee club with a fine goalkeeper. But credit to the roster for not giving up on the cycle, and you can see Everton’s potential path to a UEFA bid with nearly a dozen teams log-jammed below Leicester on the table.

Things are looking up with Carlo Ancelotti at the helm, and I can’t help but think the lines for Sunday’s late match at Emirates Stadium are based on Everton’s form in 2019-20 as opposed to Toffees’ form in the calendar year of 2020 under new leadership. Since Boxing Day, Everton has fought Liverpool and Man City bravely, finished-off a win at Vicarage Road with 10 men on the pitch, and punished Crystal Palace 3-1 with Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin providing a Foxes-like pincer attack against Eagles’ zonal defending.

Make no mistake, the favorites should be favorites. Arsenal is undefeated across all competitions in 2020. Gunners have forged a lot of draws along the way, though, and have won 3 less league matches than Everton despite a less-icy start.

Pick: Everton

Liverpool vs West Ham United

Hammers played well to give up 2 goals vs Man City on Wednesday, but Sky Blues were breezing through the event. West Ham is weeks removed from having lost to Liverpool 2-0, which was 4 days after the relegation-paced club lost to West Brom 1-0 in (cough) London Stadium to exit the FA Cup unceremoniously for the 4th domestic cycle in a row.

In other words, West Ham isn’t the club to upset Liverpool right now. Norwich City had the benefit of playing at home vs a distracted opponent when upsetting Manchester City earlier this season. Reds host the match on Monday and are looking to set Premiership records in W/L totals and points in 2019-20. So that makes Hammers’ underdog ML taboo, while Liverpool’s 1-to-6-ish odds aren’t all that promising either consider risk vs reward.

The leaves the other lines to work with. I’m not feeling the Over/Under (3.5) which will come down to bounces in the box. But I don’t imagine Reds are in a mood to score less than 2 or 3 times following the epic frustration of Madrid, so Liverpool (-2) feels like a safe and secure line with a push or winner’s outcome.

Pick: Liverpool ATS