Saints Favored by a Field Goal Over Rams in NFC Title Scrap

Home-field advantage is more than simply a morale boost or a convenience in the NFL. The live-gameday fans become a force on the field, driving up the decibel level and making it difficult to call or hear signals. Opposing offenses have a marked disadvantage in pass-blocking when playing in a noisy hometown venue.

But it’s not often that a head coach actually works with the fans to choreograph the cheering. Leave it to the gregarious Sean Payton of the New Orleans Saints, whose charges take on the visiting Los Angeles Rams in a battle for final NFC supremacy on Sunday.

Payton’s idea is that the Rams will be sending instructions to QB Jared Goff early in the play clock, so the Saints fans should bellow as soon as possible once the ball is spotted. I’m not sure if the coach is being tongue-in-cheek or just overconfident, because he must know that a frustrating 1^st half and a bad 3^rd quarter could leave a crowd spent in the 4^th. Asking them to cheer twice as hard for twice as long might be counterproductive.

Sure Ain’t the Ain’ts No More

There’s little else about New Orleans that you could call non-productive. Payton’s team is building a long-term tradition of winning football in the Big Easy with a Ferrari of an offense driven by Drew Brees, possibly the most accurate QB in the sport.

Brees distributes the ball to an awesome corps of wide receivers that includes Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr. and the marvelous youngster from Central Florida, Tre’Quan Smith. Thomas has outshined them all in 2018-19, however, dominating the NFC with 1405 receiving yards and 63 points scored.

Devilish athlete Alvin Kamara is a threat out of the backfield, while Mark Ingram Jr. plays a more traditional RB’s role with the club. The threat of the run keeps the ultimate traditionalist Brees upright in the pocket.

And oh, what missiles fly from the signal-caller’s sainted hands. Brees’s numbers are almost always astronomical, but this year they’re almost impeccable – 3992 yards with a 74.4% completion rate and 32-5 TD-to-INT ratio. The veteran Pro Bowl-er hit Thomas and fellow WR Keith Kirkwood for scores in the Saints’ 20-14 NFC Divisional Round win over the defending-champ Philadelphia Eagles.

However, it was the defense – which held Nick Foles to just 18 completions while getting 2 crucial picks from Marshon Lattimore – that may have impressed bookmakers the most. The Saints controlled the football too much for Philly’s suddenly-stagnant ground game to get going, and that’s a death sentence at the Dome.

Ram Tougher

The Los Angeles Rams did not play a comparable opponent to the Saints last weekend. Dak Prescott is a methodical QB who likes to run (and didn’t get enough opportunities to do so in the NFC Divisional Round) and the Dallas Cowboys are a power-oriented team.

.@SeanPayton message to #Saints fans for Sunday:

bring the noise earlier 🕑

and LOUDER than normal! 🗣️🗣️🗣️#HomeInTheDome pic.twitter.com/Wyn6dWdRvi

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) January 17, 2019

But the Rams did prove that they themselves are physical for 4 quarters, and that might be enough to challenge the Saints in the Big Easy.

Sean McVay’s offense posted not 1, but 2 100-yard rushing performances, from tailbacks Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson. Gurley is running at full steam behind a powerful offensive line and looks like a potential Super Bowl MVP candidate. The front-7 bothered the Cowboys all 60 minutes, and Ezekiel Elliott was held to just 2.3 yards a carry.

Ndamukong Suh, who passed up an opportunity to play with New Orleans this offseason, anchors a stubborn defensive wall for the Rams. Johnny Hekker is on-hand to boot an opponent deep at any time, even after 3-and-outs. In short, if Gurley continues to get the blocking, the Rams’ running game could chew the clock while the Saints struggle wildly to get their offense humming before the 4^th quarter.

Handicapping the NFC Championship Game

The Saints have never lost a home playoff game under Sean Payton and Drew Brees, and the team managed to beat the Rams 45-35 earlier this season. But not all is peaches and cream for the NFC South representatives.

New Orleans’ 3^rd-ranked rush defense took a hit last weekend, as defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins was lost for the remainder of the playoffs with a torn Achilles.

That could play right into McVay’s hands as he looks for size and numbers advantages up front. L.A. cannot win this game if Brees and Goff get into a pitched QB’s duel. The Rams must win the turnover and time-of-possession battles to succeed, but if they do, Brees might have to deal with a 4-man rush that can get to him.

Even while the crowd cheers at appropriate times to help the Saints pressure the Rams’ pocket.

I’m liking how Los Angeles matches up on Sunday. It’s nothing personal against gregarious head coaches. But watch for the visitors to parry and body-punch for 3 quarters before out-lasting an incomplete Saints team and a hoarse audience en route to the Super Bowl.

Take the L.A. Rams and (+3) points in New Orleans.