Super Bowl LIII: Is Betting Public Wise to Favor Patriots Over Rams?

Update: Los Angeles is a (+120) moneyline underdog compared to (-140) for New England in a Super Bowl with a (56.5) Over/Under total as of Saturday before kickoff.

If the Rams win on February 3rd, or lose by a point, then BetOnline will only owe returns on 15% of its collected action ATS. But if the Pats win by 3 points or more, then the betting site will owe 85% of spread gamblers their winnings. That’s because over 8 in 10 gamblers think the Pats are the pick.

What is the public thinking? Probably that Tom Brady, practically a Super Bowl institution at this point, will out-play counterpart Jared Goff.

But there are other factors that affect the outcome of an NFL game.

From the Laboratory to Las Vegas

I’ve decided to use my experience as a prep gridiron blogger to properly handicap the Super Bowl, since the High School game (or the Hi-Skule Game as Groucho Marx would call it) is so far removed from the oft-misleading national hype machine…at least insofar as the actual outcomes are concerned.

Oh, sure, if Snoop Dogg’s kid is playing Varsity it might wind up on ESPN, but even then nobody outside of the students and townsfolk really care who wins or loses. It’s more of a photo-op and an FBS recruiting schmozz than a football broadcast.

A shrinking but still-massive chunk of prep football is left untouched by the PR and personnel-management issues that plague colleges and NFL teams. Left to practice a purer art form, its coaches do whatever they think it takes to win, no matter how eccentric it might look on the field.

It’s a laboratory – and observing the experiments can bring to light age-old gridiron wisdom.

For instance, having a great QB is terrific. Though to win a championship, you need a supporting cast around him. The worst offense I’ve ever seen at my HS alma mater had a really good QB. The best offense had a mediocre one.

It’s not that there’s no passing in teenage football. (Ask Trevor Lawrence.) An excellent passer can make an even bigger difference on a prep gridiron. When surrounded by parity, he can dominate. But a really good QB and a non-championship supporting cast typically produce a really good non-championship QB.

The Building Blocks of a Super Bowl Pick

We know that Tom Brady is a far-better QB than Jared Goff. Goff could max out his abilities for the next 10 years, and Brady would still be far more accomplished. The Pats legend is refreshed and refocused in a year when many thought his relationship with head coach Bill Belichick would totally unravel. Brady can no longer throw 50+ passes per game and expect to win. But when the game is on the line in the 4^th quarter there’s nobody better among active players or in the Hall of Fame.

We also know that Goff has the better supporting cast.

Brady’s receiving corps isn’t bad at all, with aging Rob Gronkowski still getting open. Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan are excellent on 3^rd down, and the Pats’ OL has kept Tom Terrific’s jersey without a scratch. But the NFL Athletes from Boston can get by with smoke-and-mirrors at every position on offense thanks to Brady’s machine-release and eye for the open receiver, and the resulting space for the ground game to operate.

The Rams, meanwhile, have such a dynamite running game that Goff could go down with injury and the backup could hand-off and get 1^st downs.

McVay already replaced Todd Gurley and got 1^st downs. Rumors of rancor swirled when the MVP-candidate tailback mysteriously sat out whole chunks of L.A.’s controversial 26-23 overtime win. But the skipper has done a marvelous job of damage-control along with a cooperative and cheerful Gurley. Bloggers speculate that Gurley’s downhill running style (and lousy pass-catching hands) were a bad fit for the game plan against New Orleans. In any case, backup RB C. J. Anderson was clutch.

Brandin Cooks has averaged 16 yards per catch in the playoffs, partially due to the beastly ground attack making it easy.

But don’t tell that to Mr. Cooks…who is likely bent on revenge after the Pats got rid of him.

Los Angeles isn’t sorry for winning the NFC title on an unfair non-call near the Rams’ own end zone. The missed interference from CB Nickell Robey-Coleman vs Tommylee Lewis of New Orleans was so blatant that a group of Saints fans are suing the NFL.

Other, kinder souls are offering to help.

A Louisiana eye-care practice is offering NFL refs free eye exams after a missed pass-interference call helped the Rams beat the Saints in the NFC Championship Game. https://t.co/GkXzU8kOZ5 pic.twitter.com/0pFa7NfluA

— NESN (@NESN) January 21, 2019

Referees admit they blundered on the fateful call. But the modern Shield makes it difficult for DBs, so much that a bang-and-crash style which draws occasional flags (or not) can be a unit’s best refuge. It worked for the Patriots against Kurt Warner’s “Greatest Show on Turf” when the franchises last warred for the Lombardi Trophy in 2002.

It’s called rolling the dice. Imagine a defense taking zero risks and winning a playoff game in New Orleans.

Bang-and-crash doesn’t begin to describe the Rams’ front-7, led by monster-truck lineman Ndamukong Suh.

In a couple of weeks, L.A. has dismissed the Cowboys’ physical ground game and rejected the finesse passing attack of New Orleans.

It was Drew Brees and the Saints who may have been lucky just to have a chance at the end last Sunday. If Robey-Coleman had turned around and looked for the ball on the fateful flag-less down, he’d have had one heck of a long pick-6.

Meanwhile, the Patriots get by with a defense full of role-players who know how to scratch and claw in the postseason. Dont’a Hightower is a great linebacker and players like Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty have the ability to shine at CB, but a pedestrian pass rush has those players behind the rhythm of the opponent too often.

Pins and Needles

Belichick was barely able to wring New England past its own OT adventure on a chilly night in Missouri. Andy Reid has shown a propensity to let Patrick Mahomes zing the egg downfield in every situation, and the flaw in game management was exposed again as KC scored to take a 28-24 lead with 2:03 left.

Too much time. Brady directed a TD drive, getting a nice mulligan off an errant throw thanks to an offsides call.

Reid and other coaches have failed to recognize over the years that the only tenable weapons against Tom Brady in the 4^th quarter are ball possession and the game clock. They don’t often luck out and win on a freaky strip-sack, like Doug Peterson and the Philadelphia Eagles in 2018.

Los Angeles is a potential ball-control killer with not just 1, but 2 RBs playing well above-average behind bruising blockers. McVay isn’t likely to call a Hail Mary with the ball on the 50 yard line and 2:00 left in a tie game.

Finally, the Rams have an amazing special teams unit. Johnny Hekker is the most uniquely-talented punter in NFL history and can pass the ball efficiently on 4^th down razzle-dazzle calls. PK Greg Zuerlein launched a 57-yard ICBM to beat the indignant Saints in OT.

New England has taken care of its kicking game with Stephen Gostkowski but Hekker and Zuerlein are fine-tuned weaponry.

Jonny Hekker to Sam Shields on the fake punt for a #Rams first down. pic.twitter.com/xdVKasRzsh

— NFL Fan Blitz (@NFLFanBlitz) January 20, 2019

Another thing prep football has taught me is that recent form is everything in the playoffs. Not form in August, September or October. Form down the home stretch, under the brightest lights.

Handicapping the Big Scrum at Mercedes-Benz

My confidence pick is Gladys Knight taking too long to sing “The Star Spangled Banner,” but I’m also keen on the Over on Maroon 5 halftime songs (7.5).

Just kidding.

(I don’t even know who tabulates the “number of songs” outcome for the sportsbook, but I hope she’s a fair person. Bands play at the Super Bowl like they’re in a race to squeeze-in as many of their hits as possible and often do it by quoting a riff or a chorus for 15 total seconds and then sallying on. It’s like Steve Martin’s “Opening Act in Vegas” routine from Let’s Get Small.)

No idea what 85% of bettors are seeing, but as mighty as the Patriots are, they’re not immortals, just as Alabama was not immortal when facing Clemson for the FBS title just weeks ago. Super Bowl LII should have been all of the evidence we needed that the late-dynasty Pats can be beaten for the NFL crown.

The Patriots looked fine against the Chargers, and calmly advanced while Kansas City defeated itself at Arrowhead. The Rams busted-up a powerful blocking assault from the Silver Star and then survived a snake pit in Louisiana.

L.A.’s defense has been called inconsistent, but the unit has been money at big moments in the postseason. Stopping the Cowboys in the Divisional Round was nice, but Drew Brees and the Saints were served-up opportunities on a platter in the NFC title tilt thanks to a 1^st-half defensive stand from the hosts. Brees didn’t manage 250 yards passing.

The Superdome was so noisy that the Rams were practically using smoke signals. Still the visitors prevailed. It was outstanding for L.A. just to have gotten to the 4^th quarter with a stalemate, since the Saints’ home-field advantage was not worth the usual 3 or 4 points. It was worth a billion, the most hostile and torturous atmosphere any road team has endured in 2018-19.

Don’t see the Patriots going to the Big Easy and getting away (clean or dirty) under the same circumstances. New England scored 4 regulation TDs against Kansas City’s vulnerable defense in a setting that wasn’t any colder or darker than Foxboro Stadium on a winter’s eve. Now, days later, “sharp money” is supposedly being gambled on the hunch that the Pats are about to dismantle a much tougher defense?

The New England Patriots are a great dynasty. They may win again. But they’re facing a younger, hungrier, more-dynamic animal than ever this time. Brady’s rare struggles in the NFL have come when a fast, rugged, penetrating defense can shape-shift against any style of offense he throws at them.

Predictions and Best Bet for Super Bowl LIII

If Gurley runs wild early-on, Belichick may counter with his own ball-control assault – except Suh can saw through the interior OL and handle a bulldozer like Shaq Mason. If the Rams sputter in the early-going, Hoodie will turn Brady loose to stockpile touchdowns, but L.A. is the team that will get pressure on New England’s pocket if and when the Pats are unable to run the rock.

Tight odds are not a bad idea for a Tom Brady vs The World scenario whenever the “GOAT” is feeling it, but the Rams are the team that should have a “-“ next to their moneyline, and they’re every bit the upset-pick that the Eagles were in Minneapolis last season.

Happy Super Bowl Sunday, ‘Bop readers!