Thanksgiving Day NFL Matchups by the Numbers

The 3-7-1 Lions defend home turf against the 5-6 Bears to kick off Thanksgiving Day football. These same two teams met on Thanksgiving in 2018, with the Bears winning 23-16.

Chicago’s playoff season from a year ago is now a distant memory. The Bears are struggling and listed as 1-point dogs heading into Motown. With a 41-point total, Vegas sees the Lions prevailing 21-20.

1 The Lions have lost one home game to Chicago in their previous 6 meetings. The Bears’ defense is no problem for Matthew Stafford when he gets some home cooking in his belly. The only issue – Stafford is likely out again as he nurses his back.

5 This is the average number of sacks+interceptions in Lions’ backup QB Jeff Driskel’s 3 starts this year. His first was against Chicago, resulting in a 20-13 loss. Sunday in Washington was a disaster. Driskel threw 3 picks and was sacked 6 times … by the Redskins.

2 The number of Lions-Bears games to go over the total since 2015. The under is 6-2 in the previous 8 editions of this rivalry. It does not matter if the game is on Sunday or Thursday, these teams don’t score when they match up. The under is 4-2 in the previous 6 Lions-Bears Thanksgiving Day games.

The 8-3 Bills travel to Jerryworld for a matchup with the 6-5 Cowboys. Dallas is fresh off a heartbreaking loss to New England on Sunday’s Game of the Week. Buffalo dominated the Bears on Sunday.

3  Home teams following a close loss against teams following a win in a short week have won 3 games in a row. This bodes well for Dallas. Traditionally, teams in this spot do not fare well. The 3 wins in a row is an outlier. This does not bode well for Dallas.

6 The Cowboys have lost 6 games in a row at home when coming off a loss in a short week. Well-coached teams typically respond well following a loss in a short week – they are extra motivated. Jason Garrett-coached teams spiral after a loss.

4 The Cowboys have won their previous 4 Thanksgiving Day games when favored by at least one touchdown against a winning team. Dallas opened at -7.5 (-110) but is now -7 (EVEN) against Buffalo.

The 9-2 Saints travel to Hotlanta for a date with the 3-8 Falcons.

Which Atlanta team will show up? The team that crushed these same Saints two weeks ago or the team whose offense is so bad that a 3-and-out is considered a good possession?

3-0 The Falcons are 3-0 ATS in their previous 3 short week home games against New Orleans. Atlanta won SU in 2 of those contests.

2 The number of times Drew Brees has been swept by the Falcons in his Saints’ career. It happened in 2014 and again in 2016. Brees is a future HOF but fails to have consistent success against in-division ATL. He is just 8-7 against Atlanta since 2012.

40.5% Since Brees joined the Saints in 2006, New Orleans has won just 40.5% ATS when playing a losing team and favored by a touchdown or more. NO is currently -7 (EVEN) on Bovada.

Happy Thanksgiving! See you on top!