The “Because Football” Phenomenon

There is a phenomenon that takes place when it comes to football betting, where a team that on paper looks vastly worse than their opponent all of a sudden becomes an attractive wager due to a number of factors. As popular sports radio host Dan Le Batard once said, this phenomenon is known as betting on the team perceived to be inferior “because football.” But what makes this phenomenon tick?

Perhaps the most important thing that makes these seemingly strange wagers feasible is the fact that the teams in the NFL are separated by so little in terms of talent. So when a team feels so much worse than its opponent, that simply isn’t the case most of the time. That is worth remembering when betting on the NFL, as there is no such thing as a sure thing, unless you’re talking about the Patriots off of back-to-back losses.

Then there is the influence of sharp money on these lines that appear closer than they should be. These dollars usually come in large quantities from seasoned bettors who are used to winning more than they lose, which means that their wagers carry more weight than the average bettor. Sharp money on an underdog can move a line closer to being a pick ‘em than it was prior to those bets, which can lead to lines that are closer than you might expect.

To know when sharp money has been introduced to a game, keep an eye on the line throughout the week leading up to a game. When you see a line moving closer together even if the majority of tickets are on the favorite, you may have a situation where sharp money is pushing everything closer together. Observing line movements can tell you a lot about every game, but requires constant attention.

Of course, this effect can be overblown a bit, given that media coverage tends to be sensationalized and should always be taken with a grain of salt. But there is clear evidence that teams can often defy perception when it comes to their betting lines heading into a game for seemingly inexplicable reasons, even if those reasons are totally explainable in the long run.

Betting these games can be difficult. On one hand, betting on the superior team feels easy, especially if you are only laying a couple of points with them. But there is usually a reason that the line is as close as it is, and the team that is superior on paper often is not the optimal choice heading into these contests.

Just like with any other football game, you have to find spots where you are getting a line that is advantageous relative to the actual ability of both teams, rather than going off of how you perceive the teams prior to doing any research. Doing that can greatly impact your ability to win wagers against the spread and to make a profit on a long-term basis, which is what everyone is trying to do.