The Value of Small NFL Underdogs

A wise sports bettor once realized that one of three things will happen in every game:

1. The favorite will win SU and cover the spread
2. The favorite will win SU but fail to cover the spread
3. The underdog will win SU

If we bet the dog, two of the three possible outcomes are in our favor.

NFL underdogs, much like their NBA, MLB, or CFB counterparts, provide great value in certain situations. If you blindly bet underdogs just because you like the plus money on their line (I was guilty of this as a novice bettor) your bankroll will soon be kaput.

So what are some good situations for betting NFL underdogs? I’m glad you asked. Let’s take a look together.

Small Underdogs Are a +EV Bet

When I use the term EV, I am referring to expected value. EV is the amount of money you can expect to win, on average, from betting a game. +EV bets are good value bets. -EV bets are sucker bets.

Take a look at how underdogs of 3 points or fewer have fared since the 2011 season.

Year	ATS Win %	SU Win %
2018	54.2%	47.8%
2017	54.0%	51.0%
2016	43.4%	40.7%
2015	54.7%	50.0%
2014	40.4%	38.5%
2013	58.3%	52.5%
2012	57.9%	50.0%
2011	58.5%	51.8%
Total	52.7%	47.9%

There is much to like here. Small underdogs have been very consistent this decade. If you bet them blindly, they will make you a small amount of money. But who says we need to bet them blindly?

Small Road Underdogs Are Even Better

If we add the stipulation that the underdog must be playing on the road, the numbers improve a bit.

Year	ATS Win %	SU Win %
2018	75.0%	71.4%
2017	53.8%	46.2%
2016	46.7%	42.9%
2015	58.8%	52.9%
2014	30.0%	30.0%
2013	60.0%	46.7%
2012	58.3%	52.0%
2011	61.3%	57.6%
Total	53.7%	48.8%

Personally, I love betting road teams. The home-field advantage can be very real, but its effects are often exaggerated. Certain coaches and teams excel at home while others will play much looser away from their fans.

Avoid the common fallacy of placing too much importance on home-field. One statistic you will want to become familiar with is how well teams play in the first and second quarters. Quick-starting teams tend to play well on the road because they effectively silence the crowd.

Slow-starting teams have a much tougher time away from home because the crowd is never removed from the equation. It is hard enough to beat another NFL team. Try taking on two opponents: a good team and their crowd.

Losing Teams Are Not as Bad As You Think

The numbers for small road underdogs were pretty good, but I do not want to settle for “pretty good”. I know we can find even more value.

Something that did not take me long to figure out as a novice bettor is that there is not much separation between the NFL’s best and worst teams. What does this mean?

The public often overlooks or dismisses teams with losing records, thinking they are much worse than they actually are. This increases the odds for intelligent bettors, like us.

This chart displays records for small road underdogs with losing records.

Year	ATS Win %	SU Win %
2018	66.7%	33.3%
2017	42.9%	42.9%
2016	57.1%	50.0%
2015	50.0%	50.0%
2014	33.3%	16.7%
2013	57.1%	57.1%
2012	63.6%	63.6%
2011	63.6%	63.6%
Total	54.5%	50.7%

These numbers make me giddy. Do you realize how profitable a 50.7% win rate on underdogs is? I’ll tell you.

The average moneyline odds for these dogs since 2011 is +105. With 66 games ending in a decision (one game was a tie), bettors of this system would have a terrific 11.8% ROI.

I just showed you 3 systems, each better than the last. “Losing small road underdogs” is not the end-all system of systems. Don’t become stagnant. Do some research and use my model as a basis for further tweaking, not as the Holy Grail.