- The San Francisco Giants are Unstoppable
Since the calendar turned over to July, the Giants have posted an 11-2 record. Vegas has not caught on because they keep favoring the opposition, allowing Giants bettors to clean up.
The Giants’ average line in July is +128.9. When an underdog of that magnitude goes 11-2, they make $1,313 in 17 days. The A’s have been the second-most profitable team to bet in July, but the Giants have accumulated nearly double the profits of their Bay Area neighbors.
- The Rockies Are Your “Friend”
The Rockies are not the type of friend that will drive you to the airport or invite you over to watch the game. They are more the type of “friend” that you take pictures with to seem prettier and then trash talk behind their back.
Colorado has been favored in nearly every game this month with an average line of -120.1. They have gone 2-10 in those games.
This makes the Rockies the most profitable team to bet against in July. Simply taking the moneyline of the opposition in each Colorado contest would have netted $1,024.
- Gridlock Extends to the Diamond
Sometimes it feels nothing ever gets done in Washington. In July, it’s been that way on the baseball field, too.
The Nationals have played 11 games in July and have gone 8-3. That is impressive but is not the most noteworthy statistic from these 11 games. 10 of the 11 games have gone under the Vegas total. No one is scoring in Washington.
$100 per game bettors on every Nationals under this month would be up $900 while those backing the over each time out would be down $1,033. This makes the Nats the most profitable under-betting team of the month and the least profitable over-betting team – each by a large margin.
- Bet The Over on High Totals
This advice would seemingly go against everything I stand for. I’m all about value. Betting over on a high total doesn’t seem like it would be +EV … but in July, it is!
There are certain teams that receive elevated Vegas totals while playing at home. This is either because of a hitter-friendly ballpark, bad pitching, or both. The following 5 clubs have been given the highest Vegas totals at home in the month of July … and the over has been profitable on each of them!
Even totals of 13.4 cannot stop over-bettors in Colorado. “When the over gets too high, bet the under” – this sounds like advice I would give, but it would be wrong this month.
Some of these overs are not extremely profitable; they are very close to even. Chasing high-total overs is a dangerous precedent to set. Rather than trying to join the party late and cash in on a fad that is likely to come crashing down, I would just be aware of this trend and avoid betting against it until it cools off.
- The NL West Travels Well
Rockies, Padres, Dodgers, DBacks, Giants.
The NL West has played the most interdivisional road games of any division this month – 16. The West has also won the most interdivisional road games this month – 10.
Total it all up and you will find that the NL West has profited $512 in July when visiting the parks of out-of-division teams.
As a side note: the AL and NL East have both had excellent records this month in interdivisional road games but have played fewer games – profiting less.
This is just the tip of the iceberg. Check out KillerSports MLB SDQL feature to find your own trends for the month of July and beyond. See you on top!