Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor will finally collide, and everything is at stake.
We’ve done the analysis, and it’s now time to share the findings with our readers.
Here you’ll find the exact bets that we will be placing this weekend, using the same strategy that has helped us profit from two of the last three major MMA events.
Let’s get started!
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor
Spoiler: Wager Bop predicts that Conor McGregor will KO Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229.
That’s right. We’re picking against the undefeated Russian phenom that is Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229.
Right now, there’s considerable separation between these two at most bookmakers.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov: -150 (SportsInt)
- Conor McGregor: +155 (5Dimes)
Should there be? Probably not.
While it’s true that Nurmagomedov is arguably McGregor’s toughest test to date, the same can certainly be said for “The Eagle.”
Unlike many of his previous opponents, McGregor has the power that can rattle Khabib and throw the mixed martial arts universe into the upside-down. It’s not just his power, either. McGregor’s reflexes, pressure, and precision will also cause significant troubles for Nurmagomedov for as long as this fight stays standing.
We’re not foolish; we know the severe consequences that come from a Khabib takedown. It’s just that McGregor legitimately has all of the tools to keep this fight standing long enough to piece up Nurmagomedov like no one else has done.
Nurmagomedov will likely need to resort to a panic-induced rush forward to close the distance and smother McGregor. This worked against Edson Barboza, Michael Johnson, and even Al Iaquinta for the early rounds. But once Iaquinta demanded the center of the Octagon, much like Darrell Horcher had done for the first couple of minutes against Khabib, it lowered the success rate of Nurmagomedov’s takedowns, and he either chose not to shoot in for a takedown or failed on occasion. They’re still effective (and very dangerous), but if McGregor can keep away from the cage, he’s going to have a real solid chance of reclaiming his title.
The odds deserve to be closer than they are. We’ll side with the underdog, Conor McGregor.
Bet on Conor McGregor at odds of +155 with 5Dimes
Tony Ferguson vs. Anthony Pettis
Thanks to a grueling rehabilitation program and an intense desire to become the UFC lightweight champion, Tony Ferguson is set to return to the cage faster than we had all anticipated.
Just one week before UFC 223, Ferguson shockingly tripped on a cable while backstage and tore his LCL. “El Cucuy” was stripped of his UFC Interim Lightweight Championship and removed from the event, with the headline spot instead gifted to Al Iaquinta. Now, if his recent media day obligations are anything to go by, Ferguson will return to the cage with a vengeance this weekend at UFC 229 against Anthony Pettis, who he considers a tougher opponent than the two lightweight fighters in the main event.
- Tony Ferguson: -329 (SportBet)
- Anthony Pettis: +309 (BookMaker)
Anthony “Showtime” Pettis has made a name for himself as an electric striker with several highlight-reel finishes to his name. While we’ll never forget his incredible “Showtime” kick against Benson Henderson in 2010, Pettis is much more than just another fascinating striker and deserves respect as an incredibly well-rounded mixed martial artist.
Although extraordinarily dangerous on the mat, Pettis seems to get no appreciation for his work down there. Arguably the best evidence of his submission grappling ability is when he survived multiple back-takes from the submission record-setting Charles Oliveira before eventually locking up a guillotine choke of his own in round three. Yet, bookmakers continue to offer up unexpectedly high odds on Pettis to win by submission.
It wasn’t all that long ago when Anthony Pettis was too concerned with being taken down that it was actually negatively impacting his striking game. Recently, however, Pettis has shifted his mindset and accepted that a takedown isn’t necessarily a bad outcome for him considering his submission capabilities. So now, his stand-up has improved, and he is more than capable of finishing a fight on the mat.
The key difference between these two fighters is that although Ferguson and Pettis are ultra-aggressive on the mat, their tendencies while standing are worlds apart. Ferguson is all about pace and pressure, whereas Pettis is arguably the better technical striker but occasionally waits too long for a prime opportunity to counter. Overall, Ferguson’s always-forward approach makes Pettis look remarkably hesitant. Despite an impressive counter-striking ability, there’s a serious chance that Ferguson overwhelms Pettis with volumes in rounds two and three.
This matchup is destined to be one of the very best of an action-packed UFC 229 event, and it’s tough to see either of them leaving the cage unscathed after 15 minutes. Tony Ferguson should win, but there is probably better value here to back Anthony Pettis in the head-to-head options.
Instead, we’re predicting that there’ll be a relatively early stoppage in this fight and will confidently bet on the under 2.5 rounds option.
Bet on Total Rounds (Under 2.5) at odds of +120 with SBG Global.
UFC 229 Best Bets
- Conor McGregor to win: +155 at 5Dimes
- Tony Ferguson vs. Anthony Pettis – Under 2.5 Rounds: +120 at SBG Global
All of our bets follow the strategies outlined in our Beginner’s Guide to UFC Betting.