This weekend at UFC 244, Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz are set to face each other in a highly-anticipated welterweight battle.
Although the UFC Welterweight Championship on the line, the winner of this matchup will earn the newly-created BMF (baddest mother****er) title that was developed solely for this fight only.
Masvidal and Diaz will headline a fantastic fight card set to take place at Madison Square Garden this Saturday, November 2.
Before it happens, we’re here to break down this fight so that you can be equipped with valuable knowledge before placing your bets on UFC 244.
Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz
While hardcore MMA fans have known Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz to be must-watch TV for many, many years now, the rest of the world is finally catching up.
Thanks to brilliant knockouts of Darren Till and Ben Askren, Masvidal has evolved from an entertaining middle-ranked fighter into one of the most popular fighters on the UFC roster right now.
And Diaz is in that category, too, thanks to his back-to-back fights with Conor McGregor and a recent victory over Anthony Pettis.
Masvidal and Diaz aren’t known to be the “best” fighters in their division, but they’re two of the most entertaining. And for that matter, they’re also two of the baddest motherf***ers in the UFC and that’s why the promotion is treating them as such.
There aren’t many fighters capable of pulling big audiences in a non-title fight on UFC PPV, but the company now has the perfect pairing at the perfect time.
Let’s break down this fight before the BMF title winner is decided.
Fight Breakdown
Jorge Masvidal steps in as the betting favorite here, but some parts of Nate Diaz’s game should concern those who are favoring Masvidal before UFC 244.
Most of Masvidal’s best work comes off the back of his excellent jab. Although “Gamebred” gets credit for being a slick boxer with brilliant technique, the overwhelming majority of his boxing game revolves around the use of his left-hand jab both offensively and defensively.
A proficient boxer will use their jab not only to strike their opponent but also to disguise future attacks, stifle the forward movement of an opponent, and as a way of maintaining a safe distance when retreating from the pocket. Masvidal typically does all of these things very well against orthodox fighters, but could potentially struggle to get his left hand going against Diaz, who fights from a southpaw stance.
If Diaz is to paw out with his right hand and control the lead hand of Masvidal, this can help him to disrupt Masvidal’s flow and creativity. Fortunately for Masvidal, however, Diaz isn’t known to reach out too often with his lead hand as he instead opts to keep his hands closer to his body and head to employ a high guard. Instead, it’s common for Diaz to wait and deflect the shots as they start to come in, rather than attempting to prevent the strikes from happening in the first place.
More so than any other recent fight, Masvidal may look to work the legs, body, and head of Diaz with kicking pressure, as that has proven to be a vulnerable aspect of Diaz’s game in the past.
On that note, although Diaz is particularly susceptible to kicks, he chooses to take them on the arms and shoulders and continue marching forward. Diaz’s gameplan is built upon pace and pressure.
It’s not uncommon for Diaz to get worked over early before kicking into gear in rounds two and three. Just when his opponent is starting to fatigue, Diaz is starting to pick things up. Diaz’s techniques work in tandem with this strategy, as he attempts boxing combinations (typically a 1-2) and smothering pressure in the clinch when against the cage.
The clinch is a surprisingly decent aspect of Diaz’s overall game. Although he doesn’t appear to have slick technique there, he applies his unsuspecting strength to effectively lay on his opponent while upright, causing them to hold his weight while he attacks them with short, but effective punches to the head and body. And in his last fight against Anthony Pettis, it was Diaz’s knees that caused Pettis to crumble to the mat in the third round.
Ultimately, Masvidal is at his very best when an opponent comes to him, and that’s precisely what Diaz is going to do this Saturday. Masvidal and his team at American Top Team have a knack for developing effective gameplans, and we can be sure that Masvidal has a few tricks up his sleeve for dealing with Diaz’s southpaw stance, pace, and pressure at UFC 244.
If Masvidal were more vulnerable to submission attacks, the value would be on Diaz in this fight considering his ability to strangle an opponent in the mid-to-late rounds. However, that’s not at play here against Masvidal, who is a talented grappler with great defensive awareness on the floor.
The value is still on Masvidal for this fight, and we’ll be picking him to win a decision.
Prediction: Jorge Masvidal to win by unanimous decision
Bet on Jorge Masvidal to win: -156 at BetDSI
UFC 244 – Best Odds
Main Card
- Jorge Masvidal (-156) vs. Nate Diaz (+145)
- Darren Till (+220) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-260)
- Stephen Thompson (-130) vs. Vicente Luque (+110)
- Blagoy Ivanov (-130) vs. Derrick Lewis (+110)
- Gregor Gillespie (-180) vs. Kevin Lee (+158)
Prelims
- Corey Anderson (+145) vs. Johnny Walker (-165)
- Makwan Amirkhani (+205) vs. Shane Burgos (-245)
- Brad Tavares (+125) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (-145)
- Andrei Arlovski (+130) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-150)
- Jennifer Maia (+135) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (-155)
- Chance Rencountre (+105) vs. Lyman Good (-125)
- Hakeem Dawodu (-135) vs. Julio Arce (+155)
Read More:
- Beginner’s Guide to UFC Betting
- What’s different between weight classes in the UFC?
- 5 MMA Betting Experts Talk UFC Gambling Strategies, Advice, and Best Tips
- The 5 Most Shocking Upsets in UFC Title Fight History
Jake is a mixed martial arts reporter from Australia. At WagerBop, he merges his appreciation of combat sports and a strong passion for analytics to uncover opportunities for readers.
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