The UFC is back this Saturday, May 9, with a stacked pay-per-view event live from Jacksonville, Florida. The world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion is beating every other major sporting organization to the punch by scheduling an event much quicker than many anticipated.
Although the fight card isn’t what hardcore MMA fans were originally hoping for, what we have is two title bouts that sit on top of a remarkably deep fight card from start to finish.
In the main event, Tony Ferguson steps into the Octagon for a UFC Interim Lightweight Championship bout against Justin Gaethje. The co-main event sees Henry Cejudo defend the bantamweight title against the returning Dominick Cruz. We’ll cover Cejudo vs. Cruz in more detail in a separate article, so for now, let’s focus on what to expect from the main event of UFC 249.
Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje
The hot-streaking Tony Ferguson, who has now won 12 fights in a row, would have likely held an undisputed UFC title if he competed in any other division besides lightweight.
While the 155-pound division is traditionally stacked with top-tier talent in any case, the title has been in the hands of Conor McGregor and Khabib Nurmagomedov for the past three years.
This has proven problematic for Ferguson, a top contender, due to McGregor’s stint in boxing and absence from MMA, and also because Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson is seemingly always destined to fail.
Ferguson enters UFC 249 with one win to his name in each of 2017, 2018, and 2019, defeating Kevin Lee, Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone all by way of stoppage.
If Justin Gaethje defeats Ferguson, he’ll skip the line and deny Ferguson his well-deserved right to fight for the undisputed title — and there’s a fair chance that Gaethje can do that this Saturday.
Even before arriving to the UFC in 2017, Gaethje was world-renowned for his incredibly exciting fighting style. At the time, it wasn’t regarded as the true do-or-die style that we’ve come to love him for, and that’s simply because he had never been defeated.
But with losses to top contenders Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier in 2017 and 2018, we realized that Gaethje needed to make some major adjustments if he wanted to hang with the best in the UFC.
“The Highlight” has since bounced back with wins against James Vick, Edson Barboza, and Donald Cerrone, but we’ll touch on whether he’s made those required improvements in just a moment.
Fight Breakdown
Tony Ferguson is in for five minutes of hell in the opening round in this UFC 249 main event.
Ferguson has evolved over the years into what we consider as one of the most entertaining fighters on the UFC roster. While that’s mostly due to his unpredictable nature both inside and outside the cage, he draws plenty of attention from fans due to his incredibly violent approach to the fight game.
He has this strange flow about him inside the cage where he can sometimes be found slowing to a walk or then rapidly switching gears with kicks and punches from all kinds of unsuspecting angles.
Much like his opponent in this main event, Ferguson leaves his foes battered and bloodied, but he rarely comes away unscathed, either.
For as much damage as he dishes out to his opponent, we’ve also seen notable moments of weakness in almost all of his most recent performances; whether it’s being stuck underneath Kevin Lee, hurt by Anthony Pettis, or looking ordinary in the first round against slow-starting Donald Cerrone.
Ferguson has relied on a relatively high-volume approach to the fight game and that’s ultimately required his chin to hold up to challenges over time. No matter the trouble he finds himself in, he has always been there, continuing to push forward late in the fight and that’s precisely why he has worked his way to the impressive 12-fight winning streak.
If Ferguson can be considered unpredictable, then Gaethje is on the opposite end of the spectrum.
Gaethje’s gameplan has rarely needed to deviate from simply keeping his hands up, walking forward, chopping at the legs and landing bombs up high, and it’s a combination of things that work extremely well together.
The hard low kicks eat away at the legs of his opponent and it only takes a couple before his opponent is seen worrying more about what’s coming to the legs rather than focusing on the damaging blows that will focus on the head.
Ferguson doesn’t typically throw the kinds of punching combinations that would require Gaethje to use his high-guard and bounce the hands off his forearms. It was this strategy that has worked well against Gaethje in the UFC — Alvarez and Poirier had success drawing Gaethje’s hands high before ripping him to the body and taking away his endurance.
A factor that many are considering before the fight happens is Gaethje’s wrestling, but just as we’ve seen from throughout his UFC career so far, it’s likely to be a non-factor here. If Gaethje shoots, chances are he’ll be falling straight into the front headlock position and a possible choke. And if the takedown is successful, he then has to deal with Ferguson’s unique control and nasty elbows from the bottom. That’s simply not worth the risks when he is likely to have the advantages while standing.
Expect Gaethje to move forward through Ferguson’s early strikes and eventually start unloading on whatever target is available. If Ferguson presents his legs, Gaethje will start ripping his devastating leg kicks. And if he’s inside the pocket, there’ll be hooks coming around the guard to catch Ferguson as he attempts to glide away to a safe distance.
Prediction: Justin Gaethje to win by KO – Round 2
Bet: Justin Gaethje to win (+155) at BetDSI
Bet explainer: Ferguson is a superb fighter but this fight is much closer than what the odds suggest. Any bet on Ferguson is essentially counting on his chin to hold up against Gaethje’s power and pressure and that’s simply not a bet worth taking at odds of -172. Bet Gaethje.
UFC 249 Odds
All odds listed are from BetDSI
Main Card
- Tony Ferguson (-189) vs. Justin Gaethje (+155)
- Henry Cejudo (-210) vs. Dominick Cruz (+190)
- Francis Ngannou (-262) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+242)
- Jeremy Stephens (+208) vs. Calvin Kattar (-263)
- Greg Hardy (-185) vs. Yorgan De Castro (+155)
Prelims
- Donald Cerrone (-105) vs. Anthony Pettis (-125)
- Alexsei Oleinik (+210) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-320)
- Carla Esparza(-140) vs. Michelle Waterson (+110)
- Jacare Souza (-135) vs. Uriah Hall (+105)
Early Prelims
- Vicente Luque (-280) vs. Niko Price (+220)
- Charles Rosa (+155) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-185)
Read More UFC 249 content:
- UFC 249: Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Preview, Odds and Prediction
- Justin Gaethje on Tony Ferguson: “I Knock Him Out Cold
Read more WagerBop content:
- Beginner’s Guide to UFC Betting
- What’s different between weight classes in the UFC?
- 5 MMA Betting Experts Talk UFC Gambling Strategies, Advice, and Best Tips
- The 5 Most Shocking Upsets in UFC Title Fight History
Jake is a mixed martial arts reporter from Australia. At WagerBop, he merges his appreciation of combat sports and a strong passion for analytics to uncover opportunities for readers.
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