UFC Fight Night 142: Junior dos Santos vs. Tai Tuivasa Betting Guide

The UFC travels to Adelaide, Australia, this weekend for an action-packed UFC Fight Night 142 event.

While the fight card might not attract too much attention from those in the United States or Europe, the event features many up-and-coming fighters hailing from Australia and New Zealand.

At the top of the bill is a superb heavyweight clash between fast-rising Tai Tuivasa and the proven veteran in Junior dos Santos.

UFC Fight Night 142 is the second of two UFC events this weekend with The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale going down in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Friday. You can read our TUF 28 Finale Betting Guide here to make sure you’re up to date with our actionable betting advice before the weekend

For now, however, let’s move forward and break down Junior dos Santos vs. Tai Tuivasa, as well as some of the other exciting fights set to take place in Adelaide.

Junior dos Santos vs. Tai Tuivasa

Junior dos Santos is back and he’s ready to throw hands.

The Brazilian heavyweight returned to action earlier this year against Blagoy Ivanov and claimed a decisive unanimous decision victory over the UFC newcomer. While dos Santos may have been hoping that fight would throw him into the contention for a bigger and better fight with a top-ranked competitor such as Stipe Miocic, he now finds himself in a vulnerable position where he’ll defend his ranking against the fast-rising Tai Tuivasa.

Tuivasa has taken the UFC heavyweight division by storm since arriving in November 2017. The slugger from Australia has maintained his perfect unbeaten career record through ten fights by winning his first three fights in the UFC. Interestingly, that winning streak is enough to tie the second-best active winning streak as a heavyweight, proving just how difficult it is to generate any sort of momentum in this highly volatile 265-pound category.

Just mention that to Junior dos Santos, who has been unable to string consecutive wins together since 2012.

Best Odds for Junior dos Santos vs. Tai Tuivasa

• Junior dos Santos: -143 (Bet365)
• Tai Tuivasa: +135 (BetOnline)

The bookmakers and public are supporting the experienced fighter in this heavyweight fight with dos Santos remaining steady as the moderate betting favorite.

Highlighting the significant step up in competition for the 25-year-old Australian, this is the first fight in Tuivasa’s UFC tenure that he will enter the cage as an underdog.

Fight Breakdown

There’s a lot to unpack in this heavyweight main event before feeling comfortable playing on either side.

But that’s the case for all fights of this nature considering that heavyweight fights last shorter than any other weight class in the UFC.

Let’s start by considering Tuivasa, who does most of his training at Tiger Muay Thai in Phuket, Thailand. We referenced Tuivasa as a slugger earlier in this article, and we’ll do so again. Whereas Junior dos Santos might have the cleaner, crisper boxing technique, Tuivasa instead diversifies his striking inside the octagon and moves forward with the intention of crushing his opponent with elbows, knees, punches, and kicks.

We shouldn’t expect to see Tuivasa sit back and pick apart an opponent from long range using well-timed intercepting punches and counter strikes, but rather it’s more likely to see him advance and smother his opponent before launching all kinds of bombs.

Tuivasa’s record speaks for itself. With nine first-round KO/TKO victories during his ten-fight career, Tuivasa has the power to send his adversary home early.

However, we must look to his most recent outing against Andrei Arlovski – the first time Tuivasa had entered the second round – as the most relevant piece of evidence.

Unable to remove the veteran from the cage early, Tuivasa showcased previously unseen durability, grit, and determination to stay in there and win a unanimous decision against a fighter who many predicted would win on the scorecards if it was to make it that far.

But although Arlovski is a former champion and has experienced recent success, he’s a shadow of the past, and that’s not something that can be said about Junior dos Santos just yet.

Dos Santos generally controls the tempo of a fight by working behind classic boxing techniques such as the left-hand jab. From there, he’ll evaluate openings before bringing down the hammer with thunderous strikes from all angles.

The Brazilian usually does his best work in the center of the cage, where he’ll lead with straight punches and rack up the damage. But mostly, the center is favorable for dos Santos because he has a terrible tendency of backing away from the cage with his hands by his hips. If Tuivasa can trap his opponent and track dos Santos as he is removing himself from danger, a looping Tuivasa punch would inevitably end the night for dos Santos.

But that’s just one outcome from a pool of many that favor the veteran fighter in this main event.

We’re expecting dos Santos to open up his opponent after a consistent beatdown of left and right hands down the middle. With respect for Tuivasa’s durability, we don’t see him folding, and the most likely scenario is that dos Santos earns a masterful decision victory, much like he did against Ivanov earlier this year.

Take Junior dos Santos to win at odds of -143 with Bet365

Jim Crute vs. Paul Craig

Jim Crute has arrived in the UFC, and he’s ready to make a statement in his debut.

Crute, who is the latest of talented fighters coming out of Australia, earned his UFC contract after a standout performance during an episode of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series.

A first-round finish had Dana White and the bosses licking their lips at the sight of an athletic, high-potential light heavyweight fighter coming from this side of the world. But his work that night inside The Ultimate Fighter gym was only a small representation of what he is truly capable of.

In many ways, Crute was fortunate to make it through to the UFC after a performance that wouldn’t have satisfied him beforehand.

The 22-year-old is scheduled to face the tricky, crafty and often surprising Paul Craig, who is now 2-2 in the UFC. Craig, at the age of 31, was regarded as one of the most promising fighters to come out of Scotland when he joined the promotion back in 2016. But he has since lost some of that regard after two first-round KO/TKO defeats to Tyson Pedro and Khalil Rountree.

This one will test Crute’s relatively well-rounded skillset against Craig’s excellent submission grappling base.

Best Odds for Jim Crute vs. Paul Craig

• Jim Crute: -227 (William Hill)
• Paul Craig: +223 (BookMaker)

Unlike many undefeated young talents coming through and joining the UFC, Crute is considered moderate betting favorite against the more experienced opponent.

A testament to his efforts on the Australian regional scene, quality training, and potential, Crute’s odds have further widened since the odds initially steadied at -180 for quite some time.

Fight Breakdown

Jim Crute has everything you’d hope for in a light heavyweight fighter: measured aggression, reasonable power and a mixture of striking and grappling prowess.

Despite this, Crute was pieced up on the feet a little during his Contender Series bout as Birchler found a home for many heavy shots. This was unexpected to the masses who favored Crute heavily going into the contest, but the performance was mostly impacted by what seemed to be nervousness.

Once Crute settled into the fight, he was able to storm forward and crash his heavy hands into Birchler, eventually earning a stoppage.

But for those who have only watched Crute’s appearance on the Contender Series episode, a lot was missing from the talented youngster. His heavy ground and pound and devastating kicks did not make an appearance, but we did see his impressive durability on display. This was the same endurance and sustained pressure that we saw against Doo Hwan Kim earlier in the year.

For many, Crute will be a nightmare opponent.

It’d be crazy to narrow down Craig’s chances to a fluke submission, but that’s almost precisely what his entire stint in the UFC has been reduced to.

A stunning last-second triangle choke victory over Magomed Ankalaev at UFC Fight Night 127 saved Craig from a three-fight losing streak. His first win in the UFC was a second-round armbar against Luis Henrique da Silva.

Craig is a super dangerous submission grappler, and if Crute dares to take him to the mat and test his skills, there’s always going to be a risk of failure.

There’s a clear path to victory for Crute, and he knows it.

Speaking to media in Australia before his bout this weekend, Crute has repeatedly mentioned sticking to the gameplan and not deviating from what is seemingly a sound strategy. You’d be surprised because this is a professional sport, but this same strategic thinking can’t be said about many of the fighters and coaches in the industry.

If Crute stays away from Craig’s potentially devastating submission ability, he’s likely going to cruise to a victory inside the distance.

Bet on Jim Crute to win at odds of -227 at William Hill