UFC Philadelphia Betting Guide for Edson Barboza vs. Justin Gaethje

This weekend the UFC returns to Philadelphia for the first time since 2011 with a fascinating fight card filled with lots of entertaining fights.

But there are levels to this, and none of the first 12 bouts even come close to the potential excitement that the main event bout between Edson Barboza and Justin Gaethje should generate. Two of the most entertaining lightweight fighters in the world are going to stand toe-to-toe in a ‘tell your friends’ kind of fight.

Also on the card is the return of Josh Emmett, who has been away from the sport since early last year. He returns after his knockout defeat to take on Michael Johnson in what should also be a fun-filled scrap. As for the women, highly-regarded Karolina Kowalkiewicz will face Michelle Waterson on the main card.

Last week was the first and only UFC event of the year that we didn’t walk away from with extra change in our pockets. We tipped Stephen Thompson vs. Anthony Pettis to last five rounds, but Pettis pulled something out of his hat to hand “Wonderboy” his first-ever knockout defeat. As amazing as it was, it bumped our overall profit for 2019 back down to 9.63 units.

We’re set to move back up and over ten units of profit for the year with an underdog play in the UFC on ESPN 2 main event.

Edson Barboza vs. Justin Gaethje

Edson Barboza vs. Justin Gaethje is the type of fight that hardcore fans would happily pay for and watch. Instead, the UFC is gifting this one to us on ESPN, so you’d be a fool to miss it.

Edson Barboza

Edson Barboza doesn’t get the credit he deserves from fans. He’s one of the fiercest strikers in the UFC today and brings an always-exciting style with him every time out. Much like his opponent in this one, Barboza is merely interested in badly hurting his opponent, and you won’t find a points-based approach from him this weekend.

Barboza is now 4-2 in his last six fights and has looked impressive despite what the record might suggest. Sure, his win over Beneil Dariush came as a completely unexpected knockout finish of an opponent who was beating him until that split second, but Barboza’s defeats have been to opponent’s who have been a stylistic nightmare.

Khabib Nurmagomedov mauled Barboza for three rounds in one of the most terrifying beatdowns in recent UFC memory, and Barboza was given similar treatment by Kevin Lee in his very next fight.

Fans of Barboza were long overdue for a dominant performance from their fighter, and they witnessed a striking masterpiece from the Brazilian fighter at UFC on FOX 31 in December last year, as Barboza destroyed Dan Hooker’s legs and ended him in the third round. That fight proved what we already knew, when Barboza can do this thing, he is almost unstoppable.

Justin Gaethje

Rumor has it that if you search for ‘violence’ in Google, it returns only videos of Justin Gaethje.

Gaethje is hands-down the most exciting fighter in all of mixed martial arts and arguably the most entertaining in any combat sport today. Appropriately nicknamed “The Highlight,” Gaethje merely walks down his opponents and chops down their legs with thunderous kicks while also snapping their head back with devastating punches.

Whereas a fighter such as Stephen Thompson – who competed last weekend – employs a conservative, risk-averse approach to fighting to avoid taking unnecessary damage and save a few extra brain cells, Gaethje’s gameplan is nothing other than “walk forward and smash.” In many ways, it’s an upsetting realization considering that Gaethje has all of the tools to challenge for the lightweight title one day; his superb wrestling ability and relentless pace makes him hard matchup for anyone. However, Gaethje never utilizes his wrestling (because that’d be too simple, duh) and he proceeds to eat punches to the face to land a couple of his own.

Gaethje is pure excitement, and we need to appreciate this guy for as long as he’s around.

So, how do the bookmakers have this one?

Edson Barboza vs. Justin Gaethje Odds

Strangely, the bookmakers have Edson Barboza vs. Justin Gaethje as a relatively even and competitive contest, which goes against our initial read.

Barboza vs. Gaethje breakdown

Barboza is at his most dangerous when he is given time to operate from a safe distance, somewhere he can plant his feet in his preferred stance and crack his opponent with lightning-fast kicks to the body, legs, and head. When pressured and backed to the cage, Barboza isn’t nearly as dangerous and is forced to circle laterally to regain control of the middle. However, Barboza has almost no cage awareness and can’t command control of the cage in the same way that Gaethje has shown time and time again.

Gaethje is a masterful cage-cutter who not only moves forward but can step left or right (believe it or not, a rare skill in MMA) to trap his opponent and close the distance. Gaethje also employs a high guard to deflect incoming strikes off from his forearms. This guard is especially useful against head-hunters, but as Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier found out, it leaves Gaethje’s body incredibly exposed and open for attack. Simply, fighters now realize that a couple of flicks to the head can make Gaethje cover up, allowing the fighter to hammer in some heavy blows to the body. And those shots to the body have a major impact on Gaethje considering he is reliant on his high-pressure style of fighting.

But for the most part, Gaethje brings the type of fight that Barboza especially dislikes. If Gaethje were to stand away from Barboza and trade kicks and punches, that’d be suited to Barboza’s style all day. However, Gaethje has no interest in standing back and picking shots; he’s at his best when he storms forward and pushes the pace. If he can work Barboza back to the cage and trap him there, expect combinations to the head that are punctuated with heavy leg kicks.

We’re taking Gaethje to win, and he should do it inside the distance.

Bet on Gaethje to win: +115 at BetDSI and Bovada

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