Ultimate 2018 NFL Playoffs Betting Guide

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It’s the most comprehensive NFL Playoffs betting guide on the internet and you, my friend, are receiving this gem for free. Trust me, you will not find all of this information in one place anywhere else. I know because I checked. Let’s dig in!

Checking for Home-Field Advantage in the NFL Playoffs

Before we begin, let me bring up 3 quick housekeeping points that will enhance your understanding of this guide. First, nearly all of my data searches were over the past 10 postseasons, which would take us back to the 2008 season. 10 years worth of data seems like a large enough sample size to allow for some regression but not too large to where trends become swallowed up and go undetected.

Second, as always, all of my ATS numbers exclude pushes. This explains why sometimes the total number of games is different when comparing ATS and SU numbers.

Third and finally, on several occasions throughout this guide I make a side note where I further explain a concept or clarify potential confusion. The side notes are written in italics, like this. They are not critically important to read. Skipping over them is perfectly fine so long as you already understand what I am talking about and are ready to move on. The side notes are simply there to more thoroughly explain a couple of the more unclear sections and provide additional insight.

Home Teams ATS and SU

Alright, let’s keep it simple and then slowly increase the intensity. I’ll start by exploring if home field is advantageous in the NFL playoffs or if it is actually better to be on the road. This first table shows the ATS and SU win rates along with the average lines for home playoff teams over the past 10 seasons.

Side note: The Super Bowl is a neutral site game and does not count as home or away. This means there have been 10 true home games in each postseason since the 6-team per conference NFL playoff format was adopted in 1990.

Year	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2017	33.3%	70.0%	-5.6
2016	80.0%	80.0%	-7
2015	60.0%	60.0%	-1.4
2014	40.0%	80.0%	-6.7
2013	37.5%	60.0%	-3.9
2012	50.0%	60.0%	-4.7
2011	60.0%	80.0%	-4.3
2010	40.0%	40.0%	-1.7
2009	60.0%	70.0%	-4.5
2008	50.0%	50.0%	-1.8
Total	51.5%	65.0%	-4.2

Because 51.5% ATS is below our 52.4% break-even point for spreads, we know that winning percentage is not profitable. If we use our formula, we find that to break even at -4.2 we would need to win approximately 67-69% of our games.

Both the spread and moneyline have been -EV for home playoff teams over the past 10 years. Looking at the table shows that these numbers fluctuate quite a bit year-to-year, so this is not a reliable trend. Unfortunately, these winning percentages for home teams put us in “no man’s land,” meaning that neither side is profitable. This is evidenced by researching how road teams have fared over this same span.

Road Teams ATS and SU

Year	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2017	66.7%	30.0%	5.6
2016	20.0%	20.0%	7
2015	40.0%	40.0%	1.4
2014	60.0%	20.0%	6.7
2013	62.5%	40.0%	3.9
2012	50.0%	40.0%	4.7
2011	40.0%	20.0%	4.3
2010	60.0%	60.0%	1.7
2009	40.0%	30.0%	4.5
2008	50.0%	50.0%	1.8
Total	48.5%	35.0%	4.2

Road teams have covered the spread even less than their home counterparts. With an average moneyline of 4.2, bettors would need to hit between 37-38% of their bets to break even. The road teams’ dismal 35.0% mark falls short.

Side Note: Those of you paying close attention might have realized that the average lines for home and road teams are opposites: 4.2 and -4.2. We would then expect that their break-even percentages would add to 100%, right? But they don’t. They actually add to somewhere between 104-107%. How can this be?

The answer is the “juice” or the “vig” that sportsbooks charge. The juice/vig is a commission, usually 10%, that is built into the betting odds. This is why most point spreads are -110 odds. Because the books charge juice, the percentage needed to break-even is slightly higher than what it should be, hence the cumulative percentage over 100%.

So far we have determined there is no advantage to be held from betting teams based on the location of the game. Vegas seems to nail this aspect of handicapping. Next, let’s look at the success of favored teams versus that of underdogs.

NFL Playoffs: Favorites vs Underdogs

This first table displays how favorites have fared both ATS and SU over the past 10 NFL postseasons.

Year	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2017	10.0%	45.5%	-6.5
2016	81.8%	81.8%	-6.7
2015	36.4%	72.7%	-4.0
2014	45.5%	81.8%	-6.2
2013	44.4%	72.7%	-4.5
2012	63.6%	72.7%	-5.8
2011	36.4%	54.5%	-6.4
2010	54.5%	54.5%	-4.8
2009	45.5%	54.5%	-4.8
2008	40.0%	50.0%	-4.7
Total	46.2%	64.2%	-5.4

Two things stand out at me here. First, those percentages in the “Total” row seem pretty low. We already know that 46.2% on spreads is terrible, but we need to pull out the formula to check 64.2% on -5.4 lines. Turns out that bettors need to hit at 73-74% to break even at -5.4, so 64.2% is terrible as well. It appears there is more parity in the league than Vegas would like to admit.

The second observation I made from this table is the fluctuation over the past 2 postseasons. The win rates were relatively steady from 2008-15 but then jumped from one extreme to the other in 2016 and 2017. Is this a classic case of overcorrection by Vegas or is it a sign of changing times in the NFL? I will definitely keep an eye on this trend moving forward.

Because favorites have performed poorly, we can expect the numbers to look favorable for underdogs over that same timespan.

Underdogs ATS and SU

This table shows the ATS and SU records for underdogs over the past 10 seasons, along with their average lines.

Year	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2017	90.0%	54.5%	6.5
2016	18.2%	18.2%	6.7
2015	63.6%	27.3%	4
2014	54.5%	18.2%	6.2
2013	55.6%	27.3%	4.5
2012	36.4%	27.3%	5.8
2011	63.6%	45.5%	6.4
2010	45.5%	45.5%	4.8
2009	54.5%	45.5%	4.8
2008	60.0%	50.0%	4.7
Total	53.8%	35.8%	5.4

53.8% ATS is not setting the world on fire, but it is a respectable, profitable winning percentage. Likewise, bettors on games with an average line of 5.4 would need to hit between 32-33% of their bets to break even, meaning that 35.8% is also profitable.

That fluctuation bothers me a tad, but it is nice to know that betting underdogs creates a great foundation for a winning approach toward betting the NFL playoffs.

NFL Playoffs: Betting Home Underdogs

When we looked at home vs road, home was better. When we looked at favorite vs dog, dogs were better. It is only logical to see what the numbers look like when we combine home teams and underdogs. I’ll give you a hint … ca-ching!

The drawback is there are just a couple of games (if that) per postseason in which the home team is the dog. This is because the higher seed, who is normally the better team, gets the advantage of playing at their home field. Because we are working with a small sample size, I will use records for this table instead of percentages.

These ATS and SU records for home dogs are both highly profitable! At 11-8 ATS since 2008, bettors would be treated to a 10.5% ROI. At 9-11 SU with an average line of 3.3, bettors would have a spectacular 12.1% ROI on the moneyline.

Not only are home dogs profitable over the past 10 years, but they are extremely hot in the last 3 years, posting a 5-1 record ATS in their last 6 postseason contests. Too bad there are not more of these opportunities.

Side Note: It should go without saying, but since home dogs are great bets, we obviously need to fade road favorites.

NFL Playoffs: Betting the Over/Under Point Total

Spreads and moneylines are not the only way to make money betting playoff football. The point total can also be a lucrative bet. A huge incentive for betting the total in lieu of the spread/moneyline is not having to pick who will win the game. With totals, you simply predict how the game will flow and play out, which many claim to be easier to predict than final scores.

The following table shows how often the over and under have hit over the past 10 postseasons.

Year	Over %	Under %
2017	54.5%	45.5%
2016	72.7%	27.3%
2015	36.4%	63.6%
2014	54.5%	45.5%
2013	30%	70%
2012	54.5%	45.5%
2011	54.5%	45.5%
2010	63.6%	36.4%
2009	63.6%	36.4%
2008	45.5%	54.5%
Total	53.2%	46.8%

It is a small edge, but there is an advantage to be gained from betting the over. $100/game bettors on the over would be up $190, a 1.6% ROI. I’m sure some of you are already thinking that betting on home dogs AND the under would be a good idea. You’re absolutely right! That’s the mindset you need to win big betting the NFL playoffs.

NFL Playoffs: ATS and SU Records by Number of Wins

I got curious. I was wondering whether the amount of wins a team had coming into a postseason game affected their odds of either covering the spread or winning SU. This table breaks down both the ATS and SU win percentages for teams based on their number of wins.

I need to note that “# of Wins” means ALL wins, regular season and playoffs. For example, if a team finishes 9-7 and then wins in Wild Card Weekend, that win would count toward the “9 win” category. They would then contribute to the “10 win” category in their Divisional Round game, and so on.

11 and 12-win teams have been money over the past 10 postseasons while others have been inconsistent at best. Take solace in the fact that 11 and 12-win teams have a large sample size because the overwhelming majority of data for this table comes in the 10 to 13-win range.

Although 7-win playoff teams seem like a slam dunk with a 100% winning percentage, you should be aware that their record is just 2-0. Likewise, there was only one 17-win team in our sample, the 2015 Panthers, who lost in the Super Bowl to the Broncos’ defense. One year before our sample, in the 2007 season, the 18-win Patriots also lost ATS and SU in the Super Bowl.

The sample sizes are very small, but every trend has to start somewhere, right?

NFL Playoffs: Team-By-Team Records

Some NFL teams just have a knack for winning playoff football games while others whither in the limelight. I want to distinguish these teams from one another.

This table contains data for each NFL team that is still playoff eligible following Week 16. The corresponding numbers are each teams’ ATS and SU playoff records since 2013. I decided to only go back 5 postseasons on this one because if we go back too far, the rosters are totally different and any relevance to today’s players is lost.

The Patriots have played 13 playoff games over the past 5 years while the Chicago Bears are the only 2018 playoff team that has not tasted the postseason since 2013.

There is plenty to look at in this table, so I’ll just highlight 2 quick points:

• The Patriots play exceptionally well in the postseason
• The Chiefs seem to fall flat each postseason

NFL Playoffs: Team-By-Team HOME Records

I wanted to identify the teams with a strong home-field advantage. Certain clubs are deadly in front of their home crowds, especially in crunch time. In the previous table, I only went back 5 years because I needed the core of the team to remain the same if I was to accurately assess their knack for the playoffs. For this table, I used my default 10-year span because a home-field advantage is not something that will come and go quickly.

The Seahawks, Saints, and Ravens have not lost a home playoff game in the past decade. This is exactly what I meant when I said certain teams were deadly at home.

Here are each team’s road playoff numbers as well, again since 2008.

How phenomenal are the Ravens? They have not lost a home playoff game in over 10 years AND they are covering the spread 75% of the time on the road AND they are winning over 58% of their games despite being 4-point dogs on average. Who’s going to bet against that?

NFL Playoffs: Coach-by-Coach Playoff Records

Certain coaches seem to push all the right buttons in big games while others bumble and stumble their way to disappointing loss after disappointing loss. This table should help determine which category each of the 15 possible playoff coaches this season falls into.

Shown below are each head coaches’ ATS and SU postseason records, the average line in those games, the total number of playoff games they have coached, and the number of Super Bowls they have won in their head coaching career.

* Bill Belichick is the all-time NFL leader in both Super Bowl wins and postseason games coached

Like I was saying earlier, some guys have it and some don’t. Andy Reid has been a very mediocre playoff coach. Meanwhile, he has to watch guys like Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh make it look easy.

I am excited to see some first-year playoff coaches in action next month. The Bears and Chargers have already clinched while the Colts and Titans are playing for the 6th seed on Sunday the 30th. This means we will see 3 newbies. Do you have the guts to back them? You will receive favorable odds because few expect them to succeed. Even the Rams’ Sean McVay could not win his first playoff game.

NFL Playoffs: Winning Percentage by Seed

If you remember all the way back to the favorite vs underdog section, you should already know what to expect here. The underdog is almost always the lower seed, and we already established that underdogs have been profitable both ATS and SU over the past 10 postseasons.

We can safely assume that the lower seeds have performed better over this span, but it nice to be able to quantify it.

Side note: In lieu of a traditional bracket style tournament the NFL reseeds after each round. This means the highest remaining seed next plays the lowest remaining seed, the second-highest plays the second-lowest, and so on. When I gathered the numbers for this table, I kept the seeds constant. This means if you started the postseason as the #4 seed, each game you play would count toward the stats for the #4 seeds. This way the table is not misleading.

It is weird that 5-seeds do not share the success that 4 and 6-seeds have enjoyed. I do not have a good explanation for this. It could be something fluky or there could be an underlying reason I am missing. (Please comment below if you think you know. I’d love to hear from you).

Side note: The 1-seeds from each conference have played each other in the Super Bowl 5 times since 2008 (the only seed to play themselves in that span). Obviously, this will yield a 1-1 ATS record each time. If we remove these matchups, the true ATS for 1-seeds against all other seeds is 48.6%, which is slightly worse.

NFL Playoffs: The Effect of the First-Round Bye

And finally … we study the effect of the bye week. What is supposed to be a major advantage granted to the conferences’ top teams is often blamed for a flat showing in the Divisional Round. Let’s finally settle the question: are those 1 and 2-seeds coming off a first-round bye during Wild Card Weekend profitable?

It turns out they are not. With an ATS winning percentage of only 46.2%, we know that the lower seeds in these matchups are profitable with a 53.8% win rate.

With an average line of -6.3, these teams off a bye would need to win about 75% of their games to break even. 67.5% falls well short of that mark. Maybe there is a bit of momentum in the NFL postseason.

NFL Playoffs: Summary

Here is a real quick bullet point rundown of the NFL playoff betting tips we learned today:

• Home teams play slightly better ATS
• Underdogs are more profitable to bet than favorites
• Home underdogs do not appear often but are easy money
• The over has been slightly profitable over the past 10 years
• Teams with 11 and 12 wins have great ATS winning percentages
• The Patriots have been a great playoff football team
• The Chiefs have been a terrible playoff football team
• The Seahawks, Saints, and Ravens are a combined 12-0 at home since 2008
• The Ravens also excel on the road (75% ATS and 58.3% SU with avg. line of 4.2)
• Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh are tough to beat (understatement)
• 4-seeds and 6-seeds have raked in huge profits both ATS and SU since 2008
• Bet against teams who get a first-round bye

If you read this whole thing, congratulations! You will definitely be a more knowledgeable bettor because of it. I’ll see you on the top.