Vegas Action Stalls on USWNT Headed Into USA-France Quarterfinal

One of the best things about blogging on handicapping sites is that the “horse race” element is all we’re supposed to worry about. Who will win, who will lose, and will the outcome be a close call? That’s it. No reader cares a whit what I think (or what any other ‘capper thinks) about any other issues.

That’s a nice security blanket to wear whenever I’m asked to cover politics or the election odds. For instance, I can say on WagerBop that “I like Bernie Sanders’ chances to get at least 25% of the vote in the primary election.” Nobody assumes, then, that I hate Joe Biden, hate Elizabeth Warren, hate the POTUS or anyone else. If I said the same thing on Twitter or Facebook, members of other campaign “teams” would quickly show up to tell readers I’m a sexist, and a racist, and that my Mom has big ears. Ironically it is often Sin City betting blogs on which politics are treated least like sports.

It comes in especially handy when politics and sports intertwine.

Megan Rapinoe and other members of the United States Women’s Soccer Team have gotten into a predictable back-and-forth with President Trump during the Women’s World Cup in France. Rapinoe and the USWNT visited Obama in the White House after winning the gold medals in Montreal in 2015, but Rapinoe – a long-time LGBTQ advocate – and several other teammates have stated that they will not go to the White House to visit the Republican currently holding the office.

That’s if the Americans win the gold medals in France, of course.

It’s the 2^nd potential distraction to come along for the USWNT over the past few weeks. Former goalkeeper Hope Solo did some pre-World Cup “politicking” of her own, telling reporters that USWNT skipper Jill Ellis freezes under pressure and is a poor choice to lead the best women’s soccer unit in the world.

If that was a bad omen, Ellis quickly shrugged it off. The coach’s gambit of playing Alex Morgan and other stars for most of the United States’ opening Group Stage fixture against Thailand resulted in a 13-0 win, lots of overbearing celebrations, and yet another controversy.

But it was actually a masterstroke, considering that the Yanks were in a qualifying group with Sweden…a team that bored the USA to death – literally – in the 2016 Summer Olympics. 13 goals in the 1^st match meant that there was no way Sweden could claim 1^st in the round-robin pool with an 0-0 or 1-1 draw vs the USWNT. That allowed the women to play solid, careful football with much less pressure on the squad.

Rapinoe’s battle with a GOP administration is also unlikely to cause an issue in the dressing room. Having dealt with Solo’s antics for many years, Morgan and other USWNT veterans are experts at diplomacy. The Daily Beast and other anti-Trump publications have jumped on the chance to politicize the squad. But note that Morgan – a co-captain along with Rapinoe and Karli Lloyd – is wisely staying out of the way.

It would be understandable if handicappers concluded something was distracting the team in its Round-of-16 fixture against Spain. The match was anything but pretty – a grand total of 14 shots were attempted, and the Spanish committed 18 fouls while trying whatever they could to slow down the Yanks. Rapinoe scored on a penalty kick to give the United States a 1-0 lead in the very early going, but an answer from Jenni only a few moments later deadlocked the match at 1-1 and set the tone for a trying day.

Rapinoe scored the winner on another penalty. But the triumph did not come as easily as bookmakers and (most) gamblers were expecting.

Now for the real surprise – the United States opened as a plus-wager on the 3-way moneyline for its upcoming quarterfinal match with host France, and gamblers aren’t all too eager to take the bait. The USWNT is now a (+115) wager to prevail without penalties as only a very slight majority of Bovada Sportsbook clients are in disagreement.

The Americans will face France on Friday afternoon in the USA.

Despite Solo’s shouting, Rapinoe’s rabble-rousing, the celebrations-scandal, and any other external factors that could affect the psychology of the USWNT, I’m convinced that the quarterfinal odds are mispriced and that the Stars & Stripes is a heavy true favorite.

Here are my predictions and recommended bets for the U.S.-France battle and 2 other upcoming quarterfinal fixtures. And no, my lack of confidence in the French side has nothing to do with Yellow Vests or Emanuel Macron.

USA vs France

I was expecting the French to have a few more problems to this point in the World Cup, partially due to Corinne Diacre’s unwise decision not to invite Marie Antoinette-Katoto to the gala. The team wasn’t exactly proving itself 100% focused when barely slipping-past Nigeria in Group play, and a 4-0 win over South Korea wasn’t that impressive because the Koreans fielded such a disappointing squad. But you’ve got to give Les Bleues 100% credit for a dramatic victory over Brazil in the Round-of-16.

Still, I think the Americans’ betting lines have expanded too far. There’s no reason for such a prohibitively-dominant squad as the USWNT to be a plus-wager even as France has the benefit of hosting the battle.

It’s going to be hard to work the crowd into a frenzy with the ball around the French box for 75 out of 90 minutes. There are teams I’m liking to potentially challenge or upset the Americans, but France isn’t in that group despite the Women’s World Cup hosts getting 4.5-to-1 futures odds in London and Las Vegas.

Pick: Americans to win

Netherlands vs Italy

Saturday morning’s match is my upset-special pick of the quarterfinal round. Italy is valued less on the moneyline than it would be if Le Azzurre had beaten Brazil on Matchday 3. Instead, the Italians lost 0-1 when Marta scored on a penalty in the 2nd half.

But it’s Matchday 1 and Italy vs Australia that I’m looking back at.

Meeting the Matildas in a World Cup is a difficult-enough proposition that tends to get even tougher when Samantha Kerr scores in just the 22nd minute. The Italians were exceptional in a comeback effort with nimble Barbara Bonansea of Juventus scoring both goals in a 2-1 victory.

Italy began the Round of 16 with a 2-0 win over the powerful Chinese, fending-off 9 corner kicks and a whole lot of opposing ball possession to earn the crucial clean sheet.

Meanwhile, I’m not so confident about the Dutch after the squad needed a Martens penalty kick in the 90th minute to prevail over Japan in the same elimination round.

Pick: Italy to win

Germany vs Sweden

Germany hasn’t allowed a goal in the tournament so far, with keeper Almuth Schult starring between the posts. Sweden has also been stubborn – to the extent that my “Over” prediction lost when the United States decided to play it safe with a 2-0 victory on Matchday 3.

But an Over/Under of (2) – offered by more than 1 betting site on the web – is too-microscopic. Even for a soccer match between conservative sides with fine goalkeeping.

If the Germans romp, they’ll score more than 2 goals just as the Yanks would have if Jill Ellis hadn’t called-off the hounds in the late-going with an elimination fixture coming up. Germany has no such reason to back off this time.

Meanwhile, if Tre-Kronor is able to pierce Schult in the 1st half, the 2nd could be full of fireworks.

Finally – most importantly – the O/U market will simply “push” if the score is 1-1 after full time.

Pick: Over (2) goals