Daily Double: MLB Lines and Recommended Bets

The 2023 MLB season began back on March 30, and we’ve been here every day (minus a couple of off days) to bring you our Daily Double.

We’ve picked at least 1 moneyline every day with an additional 2nd bet in there, too. Oftentimes, that second bet is also a moneyline but it’s sometimes a runline, total, or prop. We’ve been tracking the moneyline picks, and there have been 166 of them from March 30 to July 31.

For transparency’s sake, all of these plays are tracked on the spreadsheet (always linked at the top of the article). For informative purposes and also for fun, here is a breakdown of how we’re doing on those moneyline bets sorted week-by-week, month-by-month, and team-by-team.

All stats and data accurate through the end of play on July 31, 2023.

Here is a graph of our April, May, June, and July moneyline action – showing how many units we’ve been up (or down) over the course of the year.

Note that we started with a bang in April – reaching our peak of 8.8u on April 12 (blue arrow) before fluctuating heavily and losing a lot of units toward the end of the month.

May started horribly as we dipped negative for the first time all year – hitting -0.29 units on May 25. We were able to right the ship and close out the month of May with a meager profit of 0.7 units.

June came and brought with it both our best and worst streaks of the 2023 MLB season. Our early-June skid took us down to our low of -3.48 units on 6/4 (red arrow). We then went on our best tear of the season – soaring up to 8.15 units which nearly matched our April peak.

We ended the month of June on a great note – up 5.73 units, or 573 dollars in the black for a $100/game bettor. The month of July was almost entirely positive – setting a new record-high at 12.5 units before losing a quarter of a unit on the very last day of the month.

Daily Double Week-by-Week and Month-by-Month Breakdown

April (plus 2 days of March) was a winning month for us here at Wagerbop. It was all smoothing sailing at first. Check out the weekly numbers below. We consider the week to begin on Monday and end on Sunday.

Span	# of ML Plays	ML Record	Profit (u)
3/30 – 4/2	6	4-2	2.05
4/3 – 4/9	10	7-3	5.65
4/10 – 4/16	12	5-7	(-2.5)
4/17 – 4/23	7	3-4	(-1.35)
4/24 – 4/30	10	6-4	1.48
Month of April	45	25-20	5.33

Once the calendar turned and we hit May, we started to lose. Sometimes sports betting is all about weathering the storm when things are bad, not going on tilt, and displaying patience until you’re back in the black.

Here are the numbers for the month of May.

Span	# of ML Plays	ML Record	Profit (u)
5/1 – 5/7	9	4-5	(-2.45)
5/8 – 5/14	10	5-5	(-0.13)
5/15 – 5/21	11	6-5	1.71
5/22 – 5/28	6	1-5	(-4.75)
5/29 – 5/31	3	2-1	0.99
Month of May	39	18-21	(-4.63)

One bad week. Just one bad week. From May 22 to May 28 we lost 4.75 units – nearly equivalent to our profits across the entire month of April. Remove that week from the equation, and May wouldn’t have been so bad at all.

We bounced back in June.

Span	# of ML Plays	ML Record	Profit (u)
6/1 – 6/4	6	1-5	(-4.18)
6/5 – 6/11	11	8-3	5.84
6/12 – 6/18	9	6-3	4.42
6/19 – 6/25	13	5-8	(-5.5)
6/26 – 6/30	6	5-1	4.08
Month of June	45	25-20	4.66

We kept the momentum rolling in July – setting a new high-profit mark at 12.5 units.

Span	# of ML Plays	ML Record	Profit (u)
7/1 – 7/9	16	8-8	(-0.85)
7/10 – 7/16	6	3-3	(-0.64)
7/17 – 7/23	6	5-1	5.3
7/24 – 7/31	9	6-3	3.18
Month of July	37	22-15	6.99

We added an extra day or two to both the first week and fourth week of July in our chart to better group the days. We were lukewarm those first 9 days and the first couple of days after the All-Star Break but then took off like a rocket to close out July.

We picked the fewest moneylines in July due to the All-Star Break taking out nearly a full week of available games and paternity leave costing us 3 days’ worth of picks.

Team-by-Team Daily Double Moneyline Breakdown

It’s very common for sports bettors to develop a “black list,” which consists of teams who continually lose the bettor money and get removed from consideration from bets. This includes both placing money on that team and betting against that team.

Last year, it was the Cleveland Guardians. We could not figure those guys out. We’d back them in a good spot and they’d lose by 10. The following day, we’d fade them and then they throw a combined shutout. Rather than pull our hair out, we made the executive decision to avoid all Cleveland games.

Fortunately, we haven’t had to blacklist anyone yet in 2023. Let’s check the score and go team-by-team to see where we’ve made our money this year and if we might want to consider an addition to the ole’ blacklist in the near future.

The Marlins have been our cash cow here in 2023 – winning us 5.67 units and going 6-1 on the moneyline, although we didn’t touch them during the month of July. Good thing, huh? The Fish went a pathetic 9-15 in July. We’ve get them completely figured out. We know when to take them and when to stay away.

Our biggest loser used to be the fledgling Padres, then it was the Cubs. Now it’s Detroit. The Tigers are frustratingly inconsistent and we’ve been backing them as underdogs when we shouldn’t be. The Tigers will likely sell at the deadline which may make it easier for us to make the decision to fade them down the stretch.