Week 8 NFL Predictions: Saints vs Bucs ATS and SNF Over-Under Line

The editor wrote that he always rejected the story for being too cliche, but I don’t know – there’s a few Twilight Zone episodes with similar plots. Anyway, from a sports betting and not a sports-competing POV, my idea of heaven is a place where games always work out how they’re supposed to, and my idea of hell is when only random outcomes seem to occur, as if the handicapper is trying to make sense of a “RAM” CPU output.

Even though the Los Angeles Ram(s) are 6-1 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are blowing teams out as expected, NFL gamblers might be scared of “the other place” and randomized-looking pigskin scores as autumn turns to winter. Baltimore’s 41-17 loss to Cincinnati, for instance, was so unexpectedly lopsided that the Bengals have become this week’s “it’s time we talk about X” franchise on NFL podcasts. Who can be sure of a point-spread pick in a landscape where giants tumble in wan defeat?

The truth is this is a lot more “predictable” year in the NFL than most. For a start, the 2 best teams are undisputed as of Halloween. The question may not even be whether Tampa and Arizona are the NFL’s best teams. The question may be how much better the Bucs and Cardinals are when compared to 30 National Football League rivals.

As for Baltimore, all of the NFL’s “college-style” offenses can look like Oregon when they’re winning and Vanderbilt when they lose. Arizona might be bound to drop a game by 20 points out of nowhere.

But never fear, you have it on good authority from WagerBop that an NFL with less parity breeds stronger and safer betting tactics than trying to make sense of 22 equal players and 12 typing monkeys. The Shield is a fairly traditional hierarchy in 2021-22, and the only every-week betting angle is to figure out who’s going to slip off the totem pole next.

NFL Picks: Week 8 Las Vegas Lines and Best Bets

TNF: Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals are achieving the kind of dominance only a handful of NFL teams manufacture every 10 years. In fact, the Big Red’s biggest obstacle to reaching the Super Bowl in February is the presence of the NFL’s other prohibitively good team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, lurking in the same National Football Conference as the Cardinals.

But that doesn’t mean Kyler Murray’s unbeaten cast is a solid pick at (-6.5) on Thursday Night Football’s point spread. The visiting Green Bay Packers are a perfect 3-0 in road games since falling in a Week 1 blowout loss in New Orleans that hindsight has pinned on a typical Green Bay “preseason hangover.” Most notably, the Packers have emerged from road contests in San Francisco and Cincinnati as victors in wild 4th quarter and OT finishes.

The kickoff’s trending O/U line is cautious at (50.5) total points due to the Cardinals’ rapid improvement on defense and TNF’s short preparation time for each offense. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t need 5 days of practice for the game in Glendale, given that the MVP will have plays already cooked-up in earlier practices to run against Arizona.

Murray’s blind spot is a lack of perfect efficiency in high-scoring games, but we know the wunderkind will either score points or blow up spectacularly and allow Rodgers to rule the Red Zone.

10/27 Update: Breaking news from Tuesday indicates superstar Green Bay receiver Davante Adams has tested positive for COVID-19. Worse for the Packers, WR Allen Lazard has joined Adams on the team’s reserve/coronavirus list, a clue that an ill-timed COVID-19 outbreak may have occurred in a Green Bay position meeting.

WagerBop was poised to recommend “Over” point-total picks on a meeting of 2 great signal-callers. But if Rodgers is lacking his trusted weapons at WR, bettors should hurry to pick the low-side of 50 points, and any Cardinals line that isn’t (-8) points or (-125) odds.

Best Picks: Cardinals (-6.5), Under (50.5) (Lines Subject to Change)

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 10/31)

The Buffalo Bills’ reputation as a top-5 NFL team is helping the club to a (-13.5) point spread against visiting Miami on Sunday. However, there’s no question Josh Allen’s club wouldn’t deserve a 2-touchdown spread against an ordinary team. Buffalo is only 4-2 following a loss to Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans, and a close look at the Bills’ victories to date reveals that several opponents look far weaker now than they once did. The key angle for FanDuel’s ATS gamblers is whether the Dolphins are a fighting underdog, or a new-look, same-result unit that’s headed for last place faster than you can say “Tagovailoa.”

In spite of the controversy over QB Tua Tagovailoa’s lack of on-field contributions for the 1-6 ‘Fins, the Dolphins have actually played better since Jacoby Brissett began taking snaps. The team’s margins-of-defeat is simply not congruent with a 2-TD “spot” on the point spread against a 4-2 franchise, even if Miami was shut out by Buffalo at home.

Best Pick: Dolphins (+13.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (Sunday 10/31)

The festivities of Halloween are a huge deal in parts of the Midwest where fall provides the only dry, mild weather. But the bookmakers of Las Vegas were already “spooked” by Cincinnati last week when the upstart contenders met the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.

Cincy fans didn’t have to “BOO!” at all as Cincy destroyed Baltimore 41-17 behind 200+ receiving yards from Ja’Marr Chase. Cincinnati’s new reputation for traveling well matches its street-cred as a solid defensive team with a rising QB, casting Joe Burrow and the 5-2 Bengals as a (-10.5) point-spread favorite for Sunday’s game vs. the host New York Jets.

We mean no disrespect to Cincinnati’s surge into prominence, but the Bengals have benefited from fortunate match-ups over the past 2 contests. Detroit, at 0-7, is as dead as a doornail, and Baltimore was already looking forward to a bye week.

Almost no team is as banged up as the Ravens through 2 months of the 2021-22 season, and Burrow—who accounted for about half of his team’s rushing yards in Baltimore—will face more adversity against healthier teams who are focused on beating the new AFC North leaders. New York stands at just 1-6 but fields a noble run defense that limited Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans in the Jets’ lone victory so far. A similar effort against a lesser Cincinnati backfield could put the Bengals in 3rd-and-long and force Burrow to take chances.

Gamblers can look for New York to produce early scoring drives on a defense that was geared to stop a totally different playbook in Week 7. When that happens, Burrow and the Bengals will respond, leading to a relatively high-scoring win for Cincinnati and a win for “Over” gamblers on FanDuel’s conservative (43.5) O/U point total.

Best Pick: Over (43.5)

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday 10/31)

Beantown’s optimistic (+5.5) spread reflects HC Bill Belichick’s genius when opposing young QBs and developing offenses. The L.A. Rams looked like a million bucks in Jared Goff’s first season at the helm before The Hoodie’s champions laid it on in the Super Bowl. New England flustered Dak Prescott while taking the Dallas Cowboys to OT earlier this year, and embarrassed the New York Jets offense in last week’s blow-out victory. Can the Patriots deal L.A. quarterback Justin Herbert a stiff dose of newbie-hazing?

Perhaps, but the Chargers are a faster team than the Patriots, with a QB who’s got a livelier arm and faster feet than Pats signal-caller Mac Jones. The league has changed since Belichick won game after game 23-12, prior to a veteran Tom Brady developing the deadly passing attack which characterized the latter stages of Boston’s dynasty. Once upon a time, The Hoodie could keep his tactics close to the draw-strings, and win low-scoring games by utilizing clever calls in the 4th quarter. Those days are gone because of the efficiency of NFL quarterbacks that Belichick and Brady ironically helped bring about in the 2000s.

L.A. will escape to the end zone enough times to beat Sunday’s stubborn visitors by a TD or more, even though the Pats probably have better fundamentals.

Pick: Chargers (-5.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (Sunday 10/31)

WagerBop sometimes defends teams who play low-scoring games, because a low final score can simply mean defenses out-played offenses for at least 3 out of 4 quarters. Pundits who call a 61-55 outcome “the best game ever” and a 17-14 game “worst of the season” are not only misguided, they’re not football fans.

Pee-Wee players understand that defense opposes offense, and that both assets are of equal value. Pity that most grown-up, professional sports analysts fail to grasp the idea.

In the case of Week 7’s MNF contest between Seattle and New Orleans, though, the defenses in a 13-10 battle weren’t really all that outstanding. The rain was intermittent, but on-field execution was non-existent, and QB play lagged badly on both sides.

It’s a wonder that either the Saints or Seahawks would be handicapped as tightly as (+5) for a Week 8 game against a premier team, but that’s Big Easy’s point spread vs. Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Tampa might dread visiting a characteristic 6-1 New Orleans team, but will relish the chance to out-score an offense with an inferior QB in a domed venue. Don’t expect the live crowd to save New Orleans if Jameis Winston starts throwing interceptions.

Best Pick: Buccaneers (-5)

SNF: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Though the Dallas Cowboys enjoy only a modest (-148) moneyline to win in Minnesota on Sunday night, it still might be time to pump the brakes on some of the more outlandish praise of the Silver Star currently making the rounds. NFL Network guests are saying things like “Dallas is the best team in football”… following an OT win over 2-4 New England.

Make no mistake, the Dallas Cowboys have weapons with which to compete with Arizona and Tampa Bay in the TDs-scored column until January. Dak Prescott’s offense is ranked 1st in scoring and averages 5.1 yards per rushing play, which makes the Cowboys a “de-facto” NFL rush leader with Cleveland’s backfield ailing and Tennessee’s backups struggling to compete with King Henry.

RB Dalvin Cook’s successful return to Minnesota’s lineup highlights a less-covered angle. Dallas still doesn’t have the defense to be considered an elite team, as the unit languishes in the bottom 3rd of the league in total yards and points allowed.

Weirdly, though, the Vikings’ probable reliance on Cook – and the Cowboys’ reliance on Zeke—add up to make the O/U line of (55) too optimistic even though neither defense can be trusted. Easy 1st downs on the ground, if lathered, rinsed, and repeated, are bad for high-side Over/Under picks.

Best Pick: Under (55)

MNF: New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs

Bookies seem to be taunting the Kansas City Chiefs with Monday night’s nondescript (-10) point spread. The visiting New York Giants are 2-5 after suffering catastrophic mid-game injuries in October, and Sin City’s prediction of a 10-point margin virtually dares QB Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs to step up and clobber a cupcake.

That could be easier said than done, especially since New York’s defense refuses to let go of the 2021-22 season in midst of another weak division race in the NFC East. Big Blue is short for starting RBs and WRs, but that didn’t keep the Giants from stoning the Carolina Panthers at the LOS and embarrassing QB Sam Darnold in a 25-3 win. Daniel Jones, as always, is using his arm and his feet to try to keep New York’s offense alive.

Kansas City is facing a crisis at 3-4 and will work to defend Arrowhead Stadium’s host end zone. But the Chiefs faced a similar NFC East offense on 10/3 and gave up 30 points to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Jones’ offense stayed cleaner than Philly’s flag-prone attack in last weekend’s win, and another disciplined effort will keep things tight in Missouri.

Best Pick: Giants (+10)