What Will it Take For the Dolphins to Snag an AFC Wild Card Berth?

After Week 6 I wrote this article in which I predicted the Dolphins to regress from 4-2 all the way to “6-10 or 7-9”. Fast forward to Week 16, the penultimate week of the 2018 regular season. Miami is sitting at 7-7.

They could lose out and make me look like a genius, but this is a Dolphins team still alive in the AFC playoff race. The odds are slim-to-none, but Miami could even catch up to the 9-5 Patriots and claim the AFC East crown.

Today, I will attempt to determine whether there is value in betting Miami to make the playoffs. Let’s dig in.

Miami’s Chances of Winning the AFC East

NFL Predictions at FiveThirtyEight gives New England a greater than 99% chance to both make the postseason and win the division. Miami is given less than a 1% chance to win the East.

I checked about 5 different books and none of them offer odds on the AFC East race. New England is too much of a lock for books to risk sharks with deep pockets placing mammoth bets.

The scenario is quite simple. If the Dolphins win out (vs JAX and @ BUF) they would finish 9-7. If the Patriots lose out (vs BUF and vs NYJ) they would also finish 9-7. The two split their head-to-head meetings, but the Dolphins would win the “record in divisional games” tiebreaker.

The last season in which the Patriots failed to win their division was 2008 … they were 11-5 that year. The last season in which the Patriots failed to record double-digit wins was 2002.

Falling all the way to 9-7 would mean the Pats, who were once 9-3, would have dropped their final 4 games. Since the NFL adopted the 16-game schedule in 1978, 103 teams have started 9-3. Only 2 (the 1993 Dolphins and 2008 Buccaneers) fell all the way to 9-7. This does not seem like a very “Bill Belichick” thing to do.

Because there is virtually no chance of Miami winning the division, I will only discuss their Wild Card hopes from now on.

Miami’s Chances of Securing an AFC Wild Card Berth

Using FiveThirtyEight’s Elo system for evaluating teams, Miami is given a 5% shot to sneak into the postseason with a Wild Card bid. We can receive +1000 odds if we bet Miami to make the playoffs. Plugging this number into our formula, we determine that a team would need a 9.1% chance or greater for this bet to have any value.

Miami hosts Jacksonville this weekend. According to the NFL Predictions, the Dolphins’ chances of making the postseason would only increase to 8% with a victory. This is still less than our 9.1% break-even point. Miami would need plenty of help this weekend for that +1000 bet to become +EV.

If Miami won and the 3 teams ahead of them (Baltimore, Indy, and Tennessee) all lost this weekend, the Dolphins’ playoff chances would jump to 41%. However, using the Vegas moneylines and some basic math (ignoring the vig), there is a 16.5% chance of those 4 outcomes occurring.

If you feel very passionately that Miami will pull it off, here is what would need to happen. First, take a look at the current AFC standings.

Either the Chargers or Chiefs are a lock for the 1st Wild Card spot. With the Texans, Patriots, and Steelers atop their divisions, the Ravens, Colts, Titans, and Dolphins are the most likely candidates for that 2nd Wild Card spot.

Do you see why the Dolphins have an uphill climb in front of them? Miami is a full game behind 3 different teams. In a perfect world, Miami wins out and the Ravens, Colts, and Titans all lose out. This is impossible, however, because the Colts and Titans play each other in Week 17. Even if these 2 teams tie, the Dolphins will at least have to get to 8-7-1 to have a chance.

It is very likely that if Miami does win out (or finish 8-7-1), they will finish tied with 1 or more of these teams. Let’s talk tiebreakers.

The Dolphins’ Tiebreaker Scenarios

2-Team Tiebreakers

In the NFL, 2-team ties for a Wild Card spot are broken in the following manner:

1. Head-to-Head Result
2. Win % in conference games
3. Win % in common games (min. of 4)

The list continues with several more tiebreakers, but the overwhelming majority of ties are broken by these first 3 steps. Let’s examine how Miami would stack up in a 2-way tie with each of the teams ahead of them.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are easy. Miami played Indy in November and lost. With the Colts possessing the head-to-head tiebreaker, Miami would lose out if these two teams finished tied for the 2nd Wild Card spot.

Tennessee Titans

Miami did not play Tennessee this season, so head-to-head result is not applicable. However, Miami’s conference record is currently 6-4 while the Titans’ is 5-6. One more win by Miami (which would need to happen to force a tie) would clinch the better conference record, meaning that Miami would win the 2-team tiebreaker with Tennessee.

Baltimore Ravens

This one is not very realistic because the only way the Dolphins and Ravens could finish in a 2-way tie for the 2nd Wild Card is if the Colts and Titans tie in their Week 17 matchup. However, if that did happen, the Dolphins would win the tiebreaker on conference record.

Tiebreakers of 3 Teams or More

This is where it gets messy. The NFL tiebreaking procedures for ties of 3 teams or more for the Wild Card are as follows:

1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest-ranked team in each division
2. Head-to-Head Sweep
3. Win % in conference games
4. Win % in common games (min. of 4)

Colts/Titans-Ravens-Dolphins

Imagine this scenario:

1. Dolphins win both remaining games
2. Colts and Titans each lose in Week 16 and do not tie in their Week 17 matchup
3. Ravens win 1 of their remaining games and lose the other

No matter who would win in Week 17 between the Colts and Titans, there would be a 3-team tie at 9-7. Since the 3 teams are from different divisions, Step 1 of the tiebreaker would not apply.

Each team did not play every other team, so Step 2 would not apply either. It would come down to conference games. Assuming they won out, Miami would sport a conference record of 8-4, topping each of the other 2 and sending Miami into the playoffs.

Throw the Steelers and Browns in the Mix

Because the NFL permits ties, some of the scenarios can get pretty crazy. 1 of these 2 scenarios could occur, throwing both Pittsburgh and Cleveland into a multiple-team tie for the 2nd wild card.

Scenario #1:

1. The Dolphins win 1 of their remaining games and tie the other, finishing 8-7-1
2. The Steelers lose out, finishing 8-7-1
3. The Ravens beat the Chargers but lose to the Browns, finishing 9-7 and winning the AFC North
4. The Titans and Colts each win Week 16 and then tie in their Week 17 matchup, both finishing 8-7-1
5. The Browns win out, finishing 8-7-1

This craziness would create a 5-way tie at 8-7-1 for that 2nd Wild Card spot. The 1st Step would eliminate both Cleveland and Tennessee. It would then come down to a 3-team tie between Pittsburgh, Indy, and Miami, which Miami would win based on their stellar conference record.

Scenario #2:

1. The Dolphins win out, finishing 9-7
2. The Steelers lose 1 of their remaining games and tie the other, finishing 8-6-2, which is treated as 9-7 because a tie counts as half a win and half a loss
3. The Ravens win 1 of their remaining games and lose the other
4. The Colts and Titans each lose in Week 16 and then do not tie in Week 17

This would create a 4-way tie between the Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, and the Colts-Titans winner. First, the Ravens and Steelers would undergo the divisional tiebreaker to determine who wins the AFC North. Because they split their head-to-head meetings, the winner would be the Steelers based on record against division opponents.

This would mean the Dolphins, Ravens, and the Colts-Titans winner would have a 3-way tie for the 2nd Wild Card, which as we already broke down, would mean the Dolphins get in.

Verdict

Even though only 2 weeks remain in the NFL season, there are still thousands of possible permutations of playoff teams and seeding. There are plenty of avenues for the Dolphins to reach the postseason. Miami is very strong in the tiebreaker department thanks to their strong conference record.

If you want to bet Miami to reach the postseason, go for it! +1000 is a nice payout. Personally, I am picking Jacksonville to beat the Dolphins this weekend, meaning I would bet on the Fins to be on the outside looking in come January.