Professional baseball is a very streaky sport. The long schedule lends itself to very long winning streaks and horrible prolonged slumps.
I’ve found much better success over the years betting into streaks in the MLB instead of rooting for them to end.
This is hardly a one size fits all approach for sports. The NFL and the NHL are far too choppy to bet into streaks with much consistency.
In fact, in those sports I love to utilize a streak-killer method where you bet against steaks. This does not work so well in the MLB where things take longer to change. Chalk it up to the marathon of a schedule or maybe the nature of the game. Can’t deny its effects, though.
Some case evidence from this MLB season is betting against the Cincinnati Reds every single time out.
Even with the Reds picking up a couple of wins in the weekend set against the equally-terrible Pirates, $100 moneyline bettors are up over $2,200.
Those pushing the envelope a bit further and betting the run line each game (I tend to do this) are up nearly as much, $2,005.
Fading the terrible Reds, blindly backing the juggernaut Dodgers, betting team overs on a hot offense until they cool down. These are great examples of generating profit betting baseball.
Clear the bases Mookie, don’t be Chi. pic.twitter.com/vulgUHBCcU
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 8, 2022
Betting on Hot Offenses in the MLB
Let’s key in on the hot offenses. A unique underdog system caught my attention several years ago when I read about it on Boyd’s Bets.
The writer of this article claimed there was value in backing home underdogs following a game in which their offense scored double digit runs
Most of my time today will be spent answering several questions about the system. Most importantly, is it still profitable?
On top of that, I’m wondering if the same can apply to road underdogs. Are there any situations in which favorites can be undervalued in this spot? Does increasing the amount of runs scored increase the value of the bet? Does it have to be 10 runs? What about 9 or 8?
First things first, let’s look at the system as it was originally posted.
Home Underdogs Following a 10-Run Game
| Season | SU Record ($) | Over% |
| 2022 | 0-3 (-$300) | 33.3% |
| 2021 | 25-28 ($394) | 43.1% |
| 2020 | 8-9 ($148) | 43.8% |
| 2019 | 27-42 (-$855) | 49.2% |
| 2018 | 20-28 (-$174) | 53.2% |
| 2017 | 25-23 ($814) | 44.2% |
| 2016 | 18-19 ($454) | 61.8% |
| 2015 | 11-26 (-$1,300) | 58.8% |
| 2014 | 15-19 (-$151) | 53.3% |
| 2013 | 12-16 (-$224) | 46.4% |
| Total | 161-213 (-$1,194) | 50.1% |
| Total since ’16 | 123-152 ($481) | – |
| Total since ’19 | – | 45.9% |
This actually isn’t very good. I made a couple of distinctions to the “total” section. This system has been slightly profitable since 2016 so I highlighted that.
$481 of profit with over $31,000 invested is barely 1% ROI. You’re not even beating a savings account with this one – and that’s at its peak.
I noticed the under has tended to hit in these games over the past 3+ seasons. There may be something here. It’s possible the line increases an extra half run or so due to the offensive explosion, causing unders to hit more.
Digging into this system and realizing it’s really not that great brings up an ever-important sports betting tip! When utilizing a betting system, do your due diligence to ensure the system is A) profitable and B) not obsolete. This may require periodic checks. Systems DO NOT age like fine wine.
Road Underdogs Following a 10-Run Game
| Season | SU Record ($) | Over% |
| 2022 | 7-6 ($275) | 46.2% |
| 2021 | 22-58 (-$2,401) | 50.6% |
| 2020 | 14-21 (-$96) | 42.9% |
| 2019 | 44-67 (-$1,153) | 51.0% |
| 2018 | 29-49 (-$1,102) | 46.6% |
| 2017 | 47-56 ($518) | 44.9% |
| 2016 | 37-55 (-$575) | 52.9% |
| 2015 | 36-54 (-$651) | 48.8% |
| 2014 | 32-43 ($289) | 47.2% |
| 2013 | 37-47 ($115) | 50.0% |
| Total | 305-456 (-$4,781) | 48.7% |
| Total since ’18 | 116-201 (-$4,477) | – |
My friends, we just found a system that is absolutely cash. You might be saying, what are you talking about? The system is terrible.
True, that’s why it’s so great! By trying to find a good underdog system, we stumbled upon a stellar system for favorites.
Over the past 10 seasons, road underdogs have performed horribly after scoring double-digit runs the previous game. Like … just awful.
Betting the moneyline each time on these games would’ve resulted in losses of over $4,700 since the 2013 season. About $4,500 of those losses have occurred in the past 4+ years.
When system hunting, it is just as beneficial to unearth a good system as it is to find a truly horrible one. Simply bet against it, and then act like that was your plan the entire time.
Betting every home favorite following a game in which their opponent scored 10 or more runs would have yielded you nearly $3,000 in money line profits since the beginning of the 2018 season.
The system is very simple, very consistent historically, and makes logical sense. Road dogs are never very likely to win, and the public is likely to overinflate them following a big offensive showing.
I’ll definitely be adding this MLB favorite system into my repertoire moving forward. It produced 80 plays in 2021, which is actually a rather low yearly sample size.
So far this year these home favorites have lost 7 of 13. It’s still early, though. If this was an NFL season, we’d be through Week 3.
Favorites Following a 10-Run Game
| Season | HF SU Record ($) | AF SU Record ($) | All F Over% |
| 2022 | 13-8 (-$85) | 9-1 ($759) | 46.7% |
| 2021 | 76-42 ($387) | 55-32 ($527) | 51.3% |
| 2020 | 35-15 ($975) | 19-19 (-$889) | 49.4% |
| 2019 | 95-54 ($641) | 71-46 (-$146) | 51.2% |
| 2018 | 87-56 (-$654) | 43-33 (-$389) | 54.1% |
| 2017 | 84-79 (-$3,937) | 51-41 (-$104) | 47.5% |
| 2016 | 74-58 (-$1,703) | 48-35 (348) | 55.8% |
| 2015 | 55-44 (-$667) | 36-19 ($1,061) | 53.4% |
| 2014 | 52-30 ($1,066) | 29-15 ($880) | 45.3% |
| 2013 | 56-42 (-$1,482) | 40-26 ($553) | 50.6% |
| Total | 627-428 (-$5,449) | 401-267 ($2,409) | 51.2% |
| Total since ’19 | 219-119 ($1,918) | – | – |
Trying to predict how home favorites will fare following a breakout offensive performance is like trying to predict which direction a hummingbird will dart.
These home faves suffered some dreadful losses in the mid-2010s but are up nearly 2 grand since the beginning of the 2019 season. While this is some serious cheddar, I am wary because it is on the heels of big losses.
Betting road favorites in this spot appears to be the way to go. Such teams are up over $2,400 over the past 10 seasons – consistently banking profits. This system has failed to profit in only 3 of the past 10 years and those losses were manageable.
For the record, no advantage on the total exists when a favorite is fresh off a 10-run performance.
Underdogs Following a Game of 11+ Runs
Are the powers of this system capped at the 10-run mark or do they vary directly with the amount of runs scored in the last game?
Before we look at these numbers, let’s remember what they looked like for home dogs and road dogs off a 10-run outburst. Home dogs were decent – good recently but horrible several seasons ago.
Road dogs were absolutely atrocious in this spot and should be bet against.
| Season | 11+ HD | 12+ HD | 13+ HD | 14+ HD | 11+ AD | 12+ AD | 13+ AD | 14+ AD |
| 2022 | -$200 | – | – | – | -$86 | -$133 | -$300 | -$100 |
| 2021 | $1,026 | $545 | $15 | -$145 | -$1,388 | -$1,254 | -$413 | -$775 |
| 2020 | $318 | $385 | $335 | -$55 | -$66 | -$431 | -$161 | -$273 |
| 2019 | -$92 | $40 | $636 | $559 | -$1,437 | -$1,150 | -$522 | -$544 |
| 2018 | -$712 | -$764 | $21 | -$187 | -$841 | -$921 | -$709 | -$444 |
| 2017 | $1,155 | $491 | $364 | $284 | $865 | $970 | $830 | $1,192 |
| 2016 | $287 | $21 | $39 | -$53 | -$64 | -$381 | -$489 | -$619 |
| 2015 | -$205 | -$261 | -$231 | -$231 | -$1,336 | -$669 | -$112 | $16 |
| 2014 | -$55 | -$240 | $160 | $260 | -$181 | -$211 | -$238 | $109 |
| 2013 | -$148 | $149 | $252 | $122 | -$175 | -$436 | -$173 | $292 |
| Total | $1,374 | $366 | $1,591 | $554 | -$4,709 | -$4,616 | -$2,290 | -$1,146 |
It appears home dogs are valuable following a win of any amount 10 runs or above. Sure, the net profits decrease if we restrict the criteria to wins of 14 runs or more, but that’s not an ROI issue – that’s simply a lack of exposure.
There aren’t many 14-run performances throughout a season. There were 69 in 2021. Compare this to 358 10-run outbursts.
At first glance, it may appear that road dogs become better bets the more they scored their last time out. They aren’t, though! Once again, don’t be fooled by small sample sizes. The ROIs are very similar for all road dogs off a double-digit performance (they’re all terrible).
Favorites Following a Game of 11+ Runs
| Season | 11+ HF | 12+ HF | 13+ HF | 14+ HF | 11+ AF | 12+ AF | 13+ AF | 14+ AF |
| 2022 | -$375 | -$575 | -$433 | -$261 | $300 | $300 | $100 | $100 |
| 2021 | $87 | $126 | -$63 | $187 | $192 | -$360 | -$977 | -$1,060 |
| 2020 | $1,185 | $470 | $150 | $555 | -$1,005 | -$1,043 | -$480 | -$230 |
| 2019 | $1,432 | $574 | $1,141 | $803 | -$1,030 | -$1,008 | -$305 | -$385 |
| 2018 | -$1,952 | -$1,423 | -$1,442 | -$972 | -$403 | -$29 | -$25 | -$595 |
| 2017 | -$2,892 | -$2,208 | -$2,288 | -$1,735 | -$124 | $290 | $975 | $475 |
| 2016 | -$509 | -$426 | $255 | $497 | $301 | $960 | $349 | $329 |
| 2015 | -$765 | -$131 | $95 | $427 | $1,656 | $1,568 | $1,000 | $615 |
| 2014 | $995 | $1,047 | $388 | -$12 | -$175 | -$20 | $0 | -$98 |
| 2013 | -$580 | -$330 | -$595 | -$504 | $758 | $107 | -$138 | $677 |
| Total | -$3,374 | -$2,876 | -$2,792 | -$1,015 | $470 | $765 | $499 | -$172 |
REMEMBER – Don’t get these home favorites confused with the home favorites we are backing as we fade road dogs off a 10-run game. These are home favorites who themselves scored big their last time out – not their opponents.
The previous chart shows that home favorites are a terrible bet in this spot. Home faves tend to be overvalued anyway, and throwing in hot form just increases the odds you must lay.
Increasing the runs they scored last game doesn’t change a thing. The ROI is very bad all the way up to 14+.
Away favorites off a big offensive game are solid bets although much of their profit was accrued back 7 or 8 years ago.
These road faves seem to be good bets anytime they scored 10 or more last time out. The only difference in the bottom line is that 2021 season. Teams off wins of 13, 14, or more fared terribly that year. Due to small sample size, this one down season is ruining the entire 10-year total.
If you feel comfortable taking the risk that another outlier season like 2021 will not happen, these road faves off big scoring days are a hot ticket.
Favorites and Dogs Following 8 and 9-Run Games
Does it have to be double digits? After all, scoring 9 runs is a great offensive day and should carry as much momentum as a 10-run win, right? Let’s see.
| Season | 8+ HD | 9+ HD | 8+ AD | 9+ AD | 8+ HF | 9+ HF | 8+ AF | 9+ AF |
| 2022 | -$495 | -$465 | $104 | $517 | -$1,151 | -$541 | $518 | $962 |
| 2021 | $703 | $107 | -$3,821 | -$3,171 | $187 | -$130 | $705 | $355 |
| 2020 | -$632 | -$297 | -$441 | -$416 | $286 | $73 | -$1,338 | -$884 |
| 2019 | -$2,451 | -$1,914 | -$569 | -$1,312 | -$104 | $478 | $1,608 | -$370 |
| 2018 | -$1,593 | -$1,144 | -$1,560 | -$1,247 | $1,124 | -$1,254 | -$1,138 | -$2,421 |
| 2017 | -$231 | -$33 | $720 | $214 | -$3,893 | -$4,690 | -$27 | -$540 |
| 2016 | $886 | $768 | $416 | $514 | -$740 | -$522 | $956 | $1,049 |
| 2015 | -$267 | -$766 | -$1,698 | -$1,086 | $1,239 | $1,100 | $1,113 | $871 |
| 2014 | $769 | $311 | -$70 | $493 | -$165 | $1,620 | $2,046 | $1,439 |
| 2013 | -$767 | -$139 | $1,814 | $558 | -$1,916 | -$2,715 | -$137 | $452 |
| Total | -$4,078 | -$3,572 | -$6,357 | -$4,936 | -$5,133 | -$6,581 | $4,306 | $913 |
| Net Diff from 10+ | -$2,884 | -$2,378 | $1,576 | $155 | $316 | -$1,132 | $1,897 | -$1,196 |
| Total Opp | $281 | $1,235 | -$2,053 | -$704 | -$7,026 | -$2,204 | -$10,544 | -$5,266 |
So, what am I lookin’ at here?
The first “total” row is the cumulative money line winnings. The next row is the net difference between a subgroup’s profits following an 8 or 9-run game compared to 10+. The final row is our money line profits if we choose to oppose the team in question – as we determined we should always do against road dogs in this spot.
You could easily spend a large chunk of your afternoon lost in the data here so allow me to point out a few cells in the table which caught my attention.
Bet Against Home Dogs Who Won by 8 or 9
The first is that opposing home dogs off an 8 or 9-run performance is a good idea. Over the past 10 years you’d have made a nice chunk of change.
This got me curious. Should I fade home dogs off a 7-run game? What about 6? Here are those numbers:
| Opp. HD off 7-run game | Opp. HD off 6-run game | |
| 2013-2022 | 247-183 (-$745) | 347-267 (-$1,581) |
There is no benefit to be found betting blindly either for or against home dogs who scored 6 or 7 runs their last game. The edges don’t form until 8+.
With 10 seasons’ worth of data to back it up, opposing home dogs after 8 or 9-run outbursts is a great play while you should definitely tread lightly once their previous game output gets to 10 or above.
Bet Road Favorites Who Won by 8+ Runs
My second takeaway from this table is how road favorites (who are a solid bet after scoring 10+) also fare very well after scoring just 8 or 9.
Once again, I wanted to see how low I could go and still squeeze out a positive ROI. Here are my findings:
| AF off 7-run game | AF off 6-run game | |
| 2013-2022 | $2,896 | -$3,350 |
Ooh that’s nice! It appears away favorites are profitable bets following games in which they scored at least 7 runs. This opens up so many betting opportunities.
In the past 10 seasons, this situation has occurred 506 times. The road favorites have won 308 of those for a total money line profit of $2,896 – a 3.9% ROI.
I’ll attempt at least somewhat to respect the integrity of my initial intentions which was to make this a study on underdogs. I’d love to deep dive into this road favorites system and milk a higher ROI, but I’ll save that for another day …
Thank you for bearing with this study of a few underdog (and favorite) systems. Use this to gain an edge on your books.
See you on top, boppers!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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