XFL Matchups in Week 4: FanDuel’s Point Spreads, Over/Under Trends, and D.C. Defenders Parlay Pick

The Rock’s new XFL has some surprising angles going on, one being its profound lack of parity. In 2022, WagerBop was among the first publications to notice a red flag in USFL predictions, namely that the Michigan Panthers, who had to play in Birmingham along with every other “city’s” team in the USFL’s clumsy debut, were hyped as a strong championship favorite. Bookmakers seemed to have forgotten how minor-league startups’ rosters are organized in the first place, imagining that a newly manufactured set of 8 rosters designed to play exciting, instead, close games would somehow be filled with haves and have-nots.

Saddled with poor coaching and overhyped draft picks, Michigan fumbled on its first 2 plays from scrimmage and finished in the USFL’s cellar. Picking against the so-called USFL “favorite’s” betting odds paid off as journeyman QBs like Alex Perez outshone former FBS stars. Opening odds looked stupid as the league turned out to be quite well-matched.

Pundits have wondered if the XFL’s reboot will turn out much like the USFL’s 2022 season, marked by anonymous leaders and flash-in-the-pan performances. Not if the XFL’s wide receivers have anything to do with it. Fans have been waiting for Pro Bowl veteran Josh Gordon to break out like Maxwell Jacob Friedman marks waiting for the brass ring, and Gordon paid off pricey proposition bets last weekend by catching a 65-yard winning TD pass to help the Seattle Sea Dragons defeat the 0-3 Vegas Vipers. The Pro Bowl veteran finished with 118 receiving yards and 2 scores in Saturday night’s contest.

Jontre Kirklin, the Arizona Cardinals prospect, doesn’t have a scrape of the NFL resume that belongs to Gordon. But in Week 3, the WR scored 2 TDs during a 77-yard receiving night for the undefeated Houston Roughnecks.

QB A.J. McCarron and the St. Louis Battlehawks would’ve been forgiven for a listless performance in D.C., having endured a long road trip to begin 2023’s campaign. However, the Battlehawks gave the Defenders a protracted fight in a fun shoot-out that totaled 62 points. In comparison, Arlington’s game against Orlando was whispered to be wide open, given the hype around Orlando Guardians’ QB Paxton Lynch, and the Renegades’ Kyle Sloter. The idea that the Guardians’ struggles would lead to a lopsided halftime score could have even inspired some Fantasy draft gambles on Lynch, as Orlando would presumably have nothing to do but distribute the ball downfield and hope for the best. But there were precious few “downfield” passes at all during a slow, boring 10-9 Arlington win.

The XFL running backs remain unexciting. Jordan Ta’amu’s dual threat is considered the most intriguing part of the ground game in D.C., while QB Ben DiNucci’s league-leading Week 3 performance for Seattle was not complemented by a big-time rushing attack. Lynch, not known for his foot speed, ended his scrum having led the Guardians in rushing.

Can rushers like Houston’s Max Borghi manage to swipe XFL headlines at any point this year? We will find out more when the downtrodden defenses of Orlando and Vegas square off against Houston and D.C. respectively in Week 4 of the league’s revitalization.

XFL Game Odds, Lines, and Best Picks in Week 4

Houston Roughnecks at Orlando Guardians (Saturday, March 11)

There are a few XFL point-total lines that are starting to rise into the 40s range, as bookmakers realize their mistake in allowing a few spare angles to diminish Over/Under totals. Outcomes such as “D.C. 34, St. Louis 28” underscore the topic. Just about everything about an XFL game that analysts imagined would produce lower-scoring outcomes has a flip side that can actually boost, instead of lowering, a final score’s total point tally.

Namely, the league’s arduous play-from-scrimmage PAT rules do make it as hard to score a 1-point conversion as it is for FBS and NFL clubs to score 2-point conversions after TD on scrimmage downs from the 2-yard line. But as shown by an outstanding Battlehawks comeback win in February, the “3-point conversion” rule also allows teams to mount furious rallies of point-scoring, and to overwhelm what gamblers had thought to be a sure “Under” line. Additionally, the XFL’s running clock after incompletions has an uncanny tactical effect that few odds-makers saw coming. It makes leading XFL teams more likely to go deep.

A potential running clock in trash time is helping to limit Saturday’s Orlando-Houston point total line to just (37.5) combined points. The visiting Roughnecks, a (-400) moneyline pick and an (-8.5) point spread favorite over clumsy Orlando, could very easily grind down the 2nd half clock after running up a substantial 3rd quarter lead, such as the scoreboard edge skipper Wade Phillips’ team enjoyed before coasting to a win vs San Antonio in Week 3.

However, the Roughnecks’ runner-up futures odds on an XFL championship show that Houston’s not been tested on the road yet. Opposing Paxton Lynch is a former NFL quarterback who’s quickly getting up to the “nothing to lose” stage of his spring football career. Considering that Houston is probably going to lead substantially, it’s hard to imagine Orlando not firing away in the late going, even if it leads to more Houston TDs. Even though “casual” bettors may lend a curse of agreement, speculators’ best pick may be the Over.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (37.5)

San Antonio Brahmas at Seattle Sea Dragons (Saturday, March 11)

In a weird turn of Week 4, bookmakers are offering O/U bets on Seattle vs San Antonio on a fatter line of (40.5) total points, highlighting the question as to whether those total-points line increases have been added to the wrong XFL games. Ben DiNucci, Seattle’s QB, led all XFL passers with nearly 377 yards in Week 3, but the Sea Dragons (-4.5) were still fortunate to escape Las Vegas with a 30-26 victory. Saturday’s visiting Brahmas are running the football okay, but struggling to throw effectively, and also on the season just 1-2.

Undoubtedly, the Dragons-Brahmas O/U line has WR Josh Gordon stamped all over it. Gordon paid off pricey Daily Fantasy draft picks last weekend by catching a 65-yard winning touchdown pass to help the Sea Dragons defeat the Vegas Vipers. Seattle’s star wideout finished with 118 receiving yards and 2 scores in last Saturday’s contest.

There is no reason to assume that a star WR’s production will be any less cyclical in the XFL than in other leagues, however, as stout defenses adjust their coverage and blitzing schemes. It’s hard to build either a team or a successful wager around a receiver, no matter who.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (40.5)

Arlington Renegades at St. Louis Battlehawks (Sunday, March 12)

A home game is desperately needed by the Battlehawks almost as badly as the New Orleans Saints of 2005-06 needed one. St. Louis is once again among the best teams and best stories of the XFL, but it was easy to see the effects of a protracted road trip (and an interminable delay prior to this weekend’s home opener) on a defense that wasted another strong outing from A.J. McCarron and the offense in Week 3.

The 2-1 Renegades beat the Guardians 10-9 in an extremely dull Week 3 contest, and are ranked dead-last in the XFL in total offense after gaining almost as many 1st downs by penalty as on running plays in the first 3 contests.

WagerBop’s Pick: Battlehawks ATS (-4)

Vegas Vipers at D.C. Defenders (Sunday, March 12)

Odds-makers set February’s betting lines at almost laughably tight prices, worried about offering disparate spring football markets following the surprises of the USFL’s inaugural season and the coronavirus make-up campaigns of the FCS. That changed recently as sportsbooks in a top-heavy XFL field have started to favor the favorites.

Nevertheless, is Las Vegas still setting the lines too tight? Jordan Ta’amu and the D.C. Defenders are a 6-point and (-250) moneyline favorite on home turf against the woeful Vegas Vipers on Sunday, and the 0-3 Vipers don’t just have a weak offense around QB Brett Huntley. Even worse, Nevada’s latest sports brand has the worst rush defense in the XFL.

That is a bad sign for a road game against an 11-on-11 offense. D.C. should be an even stronger favorite to go 4-0 this weekend. If readers are shy of the Defenders’ point spread due to the possibility of a winning TD followed by a failed point–after-touchdown try from scrimmage, then consider parlaying D.C.’s moneyline at generous 1-to-2.5 odds.

WagerBop’s Pick: Defenders ATS (-6) or Defenders to Win (w/ Parlay) (-250)